Pot 1-2 (2-02) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 14, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Potato Stocks Down 14 Percent The 15 major potato States held 202 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2002, down 14 percent from last year and 3 percent below 2000. Storage accounts for 51 percent of the 2001 fall storage States' production, the same percentage as a year ago. This year's storage holds more russets, but fewer round whites than a year earlier. Disappearance of 192 million cwt, is down 14 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States used 96.5 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 15 percent from a year ago. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1992-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 394,161 266,520 233,420 201,750 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1998-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 : ME 2/ : 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,935 2,420 3,080 : WA & OR-Oth : 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,270 35,310 40,540 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 35,940 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 12,715 15,905 19,300 : Total : 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,030 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 64,860 80,965 96,540 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1998 and 1999. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2000 : Crop of 2001 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 2001 : Prod : : 2002 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,741 1,700 45 1,113 700 63 CO : 27,972 15,100 54 21,357 11,000 52 ID : 152,320 87,500 57 127,980 76,000 59 ME : 17,920 10,900 61 16,120 8,800 55 MI : 14,963 5,200 35 14,030 4,800 34 MN : 21,240 11,600 55 18,425 9,500 52 MT : 3,503 3,000 86 3,040 2,750 90 NE : 10,127 4,600 45 8,512 3,350 39 NY : 5,964 1,400 23 5,942 1,400 24 ND : 26,950 13,700 51 26,400 14,500 55 OH : 1,134 60 5 984 50 5 OR : 30,683 20,000 65 20,730 14,000 68 PA : 3,510 1,100 31 3,173 900 28 WA : 105,000 44,500 42 94,400 40,000 42 WI : 33,800 13,900 41 31,955 14,000 44 : 15 States : 458,827 234,260 51 394,161 201,750 51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, February 1, 2001-2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 5 6 2 1 93 93 ID : 6 6 94 94 ME : 4 3 45 46 2 2 49 49 MI : 1 1 86 89 13 10 MN : 9 6 4 5 87 89 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 12 16 15 13 3 3 70 68 OR : 1 99 100 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 1 3 1 96 98 WI : 4 1 36 25 60 74 : 11 St Avg: 2 2 9 8 3 3 86 87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1998: 3,708 2,000 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 2,200 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 1,700 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,113 700 CO : : : 1998: 25,360 14,200 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 15,100 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 15,100 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 11,000 ID : : : 1998: 138,000 77,500 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 76,500 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 87,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 127,980 76,000 ME : : : 1998: 18,060 10,500 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 11,300 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 10,900 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,120 8,800 MI : : : 1998: 14,648 5,400 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 5,800 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 5,200 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 14,030 4,800 MN : : : 1998: 21,170 10,500 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 7,500 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 11,600 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 9,500 MT : : : 1998: 3,180 2,850 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 3,000 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 3,000 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,040 2,750 NE : : : 1998: 8,175 2,900 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 3,250 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 4,600 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,512 3,350 NY : : : 1998: 7,290 1,500 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 1,800 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 1,400 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 1,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1998: 28,670 15,000 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 11,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 13,700 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 14,500 OH : : : 1998: 1,200 90 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 100 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 60 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 984 50 OR : : : 1998: 26,229 15,800 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 18,600 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 20,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 14,000 PA : : : 1998: 3,360 900 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 1,000 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 1,100 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 900 WA : : : 1998: 93,225 36,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 35,000 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 44,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 40,000 WI : : : 1998: 30,895 14,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 15,000 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 13,900 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 14,000 15 Sts : : : 1998: 423,170 209,640 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 207,150 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 234,260 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 394,161 201,750 Fall Sts : : : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 400,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1998-2000 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 CO : : : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 ID : : : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 ME : : : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 MI : : : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 MN : : : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 NY : : : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 ND : : : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 OR : : : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 PA : : : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 WI : : : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 14 Percent February 1, 2002 potato stocks totaled 202 million cwt, down 14 percent from 2001 and 3 percent below two years ago. Potatoes in storage account for 51 percent of the fall storage States' production, the same percentage as a year ago. Stocks by type are 2 percent reds, 8 percent round whites, 3 percent long whites, and 87 percent russets, with a higher percentage of russets, but fewer round whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1, at 192 million cwt, is down 14 percent from the 2000 crop and 10 percent below two years ago. This is the lowest disappearance since 1993. January disappearance of 31.7 million cwt is down 23 percent from a year ago and the lowest for this month since January 1993. Shrink and loss to this point in the season is 19.4 million cwt, down 26 percent from last year and 20 percent below two years ago. Processing of 2001 crop potatoes totaled 96.5 million cwt to February 1, down 15 percent from the 2000 crop and 9 percent below two years ago. In January, processors used 15.6 million cwt of potatoes, down 13 percent from a year ago and 1 percent below two years ago. Western States held 144 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 2002, down 16 percent from last year and 4 percent below 2000. Idaho's potato stocks are down 13 percent from a year ago, while Washington is down 10 percent and Oregon is off 30 percent. Colorado's stocks are down 27 percent and Montana's dipped 8 percent from a year ago. California's potato holdings are down 59 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 46.2 million cwt of potato stocks this February 1, down 6 percent from 2001 but 8 percent above 2000. North Dakota's stocks are up 6 percent and Wisconsin's holdings are up 1 percent from this date last year. Michigan's potato stocks are 8 percent lower than last year and Ohio is down 17 percent. Stocks in Minnesota are off 18 percent from a year ago and Nebraska's stocks are down 27 percent from 2001. Eastern States stored 11.1 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 2002, down 17 percent from a year ago and 21 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings are down 19 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks are off 18 percent from last year. New York's potato storage is the same as a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1998-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1998 : 20.0 21.8 23.7 25.5 27.5 29.4 31.1 33.3 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.8 17.2 19.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 202 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.1 percent or approximately 6.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent or approximately 10.9 million cwt. The 10-year (1991-2000) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.9 million cwt, ranging from 1.46 million cwt above the final to 14.2 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1991-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 96.0 185,490 1994 : 196,005 96.8 202,470 1995 : 184,755 97.6 189,360 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.6 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.4 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1996-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,435 2001 : 400,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 14, 2002. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http:/www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION There are two options for subscribing via e-mail. All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 1) Starting with the NASS Home Page at http:/www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. 2) If you do NOT have Internet access, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. Sharpen Your Strategy at USDA's 78th Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2002 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia New Farm Legislation Biotech Crops in World Trade Protecting Livestock and Crops Tracking Crop and Product Identity in the Food Chain 2002 Commodity Prospects Competing in Global Markets Climate and Agriculture Put next year's economic and business outlook in focus at Outlook Forum 2002. Attend this popular event to hear the latest on market-shaping developments ranging from farm legislation to food safety concerns. Government officials, business leaders and commodity analysts will assess the outlook for 2002 and beyond, and noted economist Larry Chimerine will discuss U.S. and global economic prospects. Focus sessions featuring rural innovators will highlight trends in bio-energy, contract negotiation, rural development and other areas. To stretch your planning horizon, USDA will release new 10-year commodity projections. Visit the Forum home page for complete program details and online registration. Register Today! www.usda.gov/oce (202) 314-3451