Pot 1-2 (4-02) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. April Potato Stocks Down 16 Percent The 15 major potato States held 129 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 1, 2002, down 16 percent from last year but less than 1 percent above 2000. Storage accounts for 33 percent of the 2001 fall storage States' production, the same as a year ago. Disappearance of 265 million cwt, is down 13 percent from last year and the lowest since 1993. Processors in the 9 major States used 131 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 13 percent from a year ago. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1992-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 394,161 266,520 233,420 201,750 167,870 128,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1998-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 : ME 2/ : 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,935 2,420 3,080 3,665 4,250 : WA & OR-Oth : 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,270 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,850 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 35,940 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 12,715 15,905 18,765 21,915 24,395 : Total : 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,030 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 64,860 80,965 96,005 114,350 131,205 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1998 and 1999. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2000 : Crop of 2001 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 2001 : Prod : : 2002 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,741 1,100 29 1,113 170 15 CO : 27,972 10,300 37 21,357 7,300 34 ID : 152,320 61,500 40 127,980 53,000 41 ME : 17,920 6,600 37 16,120 5,100 32 MI : 14,963 1,500 10 14,030 1,500 11 MN : 21,240 8,100 38 18,425 6,100 33 MT : 3,503 2,200 63 3,040 1,900 63 NE 2/ : 10,127 8,512 NY : 5,964 400 7 5,942 250 4 ND : 26,950 9,500 35 26,400 10,400 39 OH 2/ : 1,134 984 OR : 30,683 13,600 44 20,730 8,500 41 PA : 3,510 300 9 3,173 260 8 WA : 105,000 29,500 28 94,400 25,000 26 WI : 33,800 6,900 20 31,955 7,800 24 : Oth Sts : 2,020 1,650 : 15 States : 458,827 153,520 33 394,161 128,930 33 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2002 potatoes; 2001 crop seed usage totaled 27.4 million cwt. 2/ Nebraska and Ohio combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1998-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1998 : 20.0 21.8 23.7 25.5 27.5 29.4 31.1 33.3 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.8 17.2 19.4 21.2 22.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Apr 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1998: 3,708 1,200 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 1,400 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 1,100 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,113 170 CO : : : 1998: 25,360 9,300 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 10,100 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 10,300 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 7,300 ID : : : 1998: 138,000 52,000 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 50,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 61,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 127,980 53,000 ME : : : 1998: 18,060 6,000 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 7,200 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 6,600 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,120 5,100 MI : : : 1998: 14,648 2,200 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 2,700 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 1,500 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 14,030 1,500 MN : : : 1998: 21,170 6,700 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 4,700 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 8,100 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 6,100 MT : : : 1998: 3,180 1,740 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 1,650 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 2,200 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,040 1,900 NE 1/ : : : 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,512 NY : : : 1998: 7,290 350 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 700 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 400 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 250 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Apr 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1998: 28,670 10,500 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 6,900 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 9,500 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 10,400 OH 1/ : : : 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 984 OR : : : 1998: 26,229 10,500 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 13,000 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 13,600 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 8,500 PA : : : 1998: 3,360 420 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 500 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 300 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 260 WA : : : 1998: 93,225 21,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 20,500 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 29,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 25,000 WI : : : 1998: 30,895 7,800 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 7,700 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 6,900 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 7,800 Oth Sts : : : 1998: 1,010 : 1999: 1,360 : 2000: 2,020 : 2001: 1,650 15 Sts : : : 1998: 423,170 131,220 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 128,410 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 153,520 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 394,161 128,930 Fall Sts : : : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 400,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1998-2000 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 CO : : : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 ID : : : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 ME : : : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 MI : : : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 MN : : : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 NY : : : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 ND : : : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 OR : : : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 PA : : : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 WI : : : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 16 Percent April 1, 2002 potato stocks totaled 129 million cwt, down 16 percent from 2001 but less than 1 percent above two years ago. Potatoes in storage account for 33 percent of the fall storage States' production, unchanged from a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1, at 265 million cwt, is down 13 percent from the 2000 crop and 9 percent below two years ago. This is the lowest disappearance since 1993. March disappearance of 38.9 million cwt is down 12 percent from a year ago and 6 percent below 2000. Shrink and loss to this point in the season is 22.9 million cwt, down 31 percent from last year and 17 percent below two years ago. Processing of 2001 crop potatoes totaled 131 million cwt to April 1, down 13 percent from the 2000 crop and 11 percent below two years ago. In March, processors used 16.9 million cwt of potatoes, 15 percent below a year ago and 18 percent below two years ago. Western States held 95.9 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 2002, down 19 percent from last year and 1 percent below 2000. Idaho's potato stocks are down 14 percent from a year ago, while Washington is down 15 percent and Oregon is off 37 percent. Colorado's stocks are down 29 percent and Montana's fell 14 percent short of a year ago. California's potato holdings are down 85 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 27.5 million cwt of potato stocks this April 1, down 2 percent from 2001 but 18 percent above 2000. North Dakota's stocks are up 9 percent and Wisconsin's holdings are 13 percent above this date last year. Michigan's potato stocks are the same as last year but Minnesota's are off 25 percent from a year ago. Combined Nebraska and Ohio stocks are 18 percent below a year ago. Eastern States stored 5.6 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 2002, down 23 percent from a year ago and 33 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings are down 23 percent from last year, New York's stocks are off 37 percent, and Pennsylvania's potato stocks are 13 percent below a year ago. Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 4.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 129 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.7 percent or approximately 6.1 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.2 percent or approximately 10.6 million cwt. The 10-year (1992-2001) record of the differences between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.1 million cwt, ranging from 0.74 million above to 12.8 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate in 8 of the 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks, United States, 1991-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 94.2 115,170 1994 : 123,285 95.0 129,825 1995 : 112,925 97.5 115,855 1996 : 143,235 97.1 147,585 1997 : 129,340 96.4 134,190 1998 : 130,890 99.7 131,220 1999 : 127,570 99.3 128,410 2000 : 154,030 100.3 153,520 2001 : 128,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.6 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.4 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1996-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,435 2001 : 400,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 14, 2002. 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