Pot 1-2 (5-02) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 14, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Potato Stocks Down 17 Percent The 15 major potato States held 91.1 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2002, down 17 percent from last year but 5 percent above 2000. Storage accounts for 23 percent of the 2001 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Disappearance of 303 million cwt, is down 13 percent from last year and the lowest since 1992. Processors in the 9 major States used 148 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 13 percent from a year ago. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1992-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 394,161 266,520 233,420 201,750 167,870 128,930 91,140 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1998-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 : ME 2/ : 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,935 2,420 3,080 3,665 4,250 4,725 : WA & OR-Oth : 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,270 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,850 61,310 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 35,940 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 12,715 15,905 18,765 21,915 24,395 27,520 : Total : 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,030 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 64,860 80,965 96,005 114,350 131,205 147,705 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1998 and 1999. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2000 : Crop of 2001 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 2001 : Prod : : 2002 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,741 800 21 1,113 110 10 CO : 27,972 7,400 26 21,357 5,100 24 ID : 152,320 47,000 31 127,980 40,500 32 ME : 17,920 4,000 22 16,120 3,000 19 MI : 14,963 700 5 14,030 400 3 MN : 21,240 5,800 27 18,425 4,300 23 MT : 3,503 750 21 3,040 700 23 NE 2/ : 10,127 8,512 NY 2/ : 5,964 5,942 ND : 26,950 6,800 25 26,400 7,600 29 OH 2/ : 1,134 984 OR : 30,683 10,000 33 20,730 6,500 31 PA 2/ : 3,510 3,173 WA : 105,000 21,500 20 94,400 18,000 19 WI : 33,800 3,300 10 31,955 4,000 13 : Oth Sts : 1,110 930 : 15 States : 458,827 109,160 24 394,161 91,140 23 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2002 potatoes; 2001 crop seed usage total 27.4 million cwt. 2/ Nebraska, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1998-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1998 : 20.0 21.8 23.7 25.5 27.5 29.4 31.1 33.3 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.8 17.2 19.4 21.2 22.9 24.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1998: 3,708 900 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 1,100 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 800 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,113 110 CO : : : 1998: 25,360 6,600 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 7,400 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 7,400 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 5,100 ID : : : 1998: 138,000 37,000 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 36,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 47,000 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 127,980 40,500 ME : : : 1998: 18,060 3,800 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 4,400 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 4,000 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,120 3,000 MI : : : 1998: 14,648 800 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 1,300 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 700 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 14,030 400 MN : : : 1998: 21,170 4,300 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 3,200 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 5,800 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 4,300 MT : : : 1998: 3,180 290 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 300 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 750 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,040 700 NE 1/ : : : 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,512 NY 1/ : : : 1998: 7,290 75 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1998-2001 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1998: 28,670 7,500 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 4,500 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 6,800 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 7,600 OH 1/ : : : 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 984 OR : : : 1998: 26,229 7,000 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 9,000 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 10,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 6,500 PA 1/ : : : 1998: 3,360 130 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 150 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 WA : : : 1998: 93,225 14,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 14,500 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 21,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 18,000 WI : : : 1998: 30,895 4,800 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 4,400 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 3,300 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 4,000 Oth Sts : : : 1998: 200 : 1999: 665 : 2000: 1,110 : 2001: 930 15 Sts : : : 1998: 423,170 87,895 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 86,915 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 109,160 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 394,161 91,140 Fall Sts : : : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 400,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Nebraska, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1998-2000 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 CO : : : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 ID : : : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 ME : : : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 MI : : : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 MN : : : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 NY : : : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 ND : : : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 OR : : : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 PA : : : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 WI : : : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 17 Percent May 1, 2002 potato stocks totaled 91.1 million cwt, down 17 percent from 2001 but 5 percent above two years ago. Potatoes in storage account for 23 percent of the fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to May 1, at 303 million cwt, is down 13 percent from the 2000 crop and 9 percent below two years ago. This is the lowest disappearance since 1992. April disappearance of 37.8 million cwt is down 15 percent from a year ago and 9 percent below 2000. Shrink and loss to this point in the season is 24.4 million cwt, down 32 percent from last year and 17 percent below two years ago. Processing of 2001 crop potatoes totaled 148 million cwt to May 1, down 13 percent from the 2000 crop and 11 percent below two years ago. In April, processors used 16.5 million cwt of potatoes, 12 percent below a year ago and 9 percent below two years ago. Western States held 70.9 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 2002, down 19 percent from last year but 4 percent above 2000. Idaho's potato stocks are down 14 percent from a year ago, while Washington is down 16 percent and Oregon is off 35 percent. Colorado's stocks are down 31 percent and Montana's fell 7 percent short of a year ago. California's potato holdings are down 86 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 17.1 million cwt of potato stocks this May 1, down 2 percent from 2001 but 22 percent above 2000. North Dakota's stocks are up 12 percent and Wisconsin's holdings are 21 percent above this date last year. Michigan's potato stocks are down 43 percent from last year and Minnesota's are off 26 percent from a year ago. Combined Nebraska and Ohio stocks are 12 percent below a year ago. Eastern States stored 3.2 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 2002, down 25 percent from a year ago and 31 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings are down 25 percent from last year, New York and Pennsylvania stocks are combined for a 31 percent decline from a year ago. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 6.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 91.1 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.9 percent or approximately 6.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 12.0 percent or approximately 10.9 million cwt. The 10-year (1992-2001) record of the differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.9 million cwt, ranging from 2.3 million above to 11.5 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate in 8 of the 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks, United States, 1991-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 93.4 72,860 1994 : 81,495 93.0 87,600 1995 : 72,210 95.2 75,870 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895 1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 : 111,425 102.1 109,160 2001 : 91,140 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.6 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.4 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1996-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,435 2001 : 400,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 14, 2002. 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