Pot 1-2 (12-02) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 13, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 265 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2002, up 2 percent from last year but 15 percent below 2000. Storage accounts for 65 percent of the 2002 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Stocks by type show more round white and fewer russet and long white (Shepody) than a year ago. Disappearance of 146 million cwt, is up 13 percent from last year but 2 percent below 2000 movement. Shrink and loss of 16.2 million cwt so far in the season is up 10 percent from last year but 14 percent below the same date in 2000. Processors in the 9 major States used 77.6 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 18 percent from a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 15.7 million cwt of the total processing. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1993-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 410,704 265,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2000-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 : ME 2/ : 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,275 : WA & OR-Oth : 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 : Oth Sts 3/ : 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 13,270 15,325 19,060 22,255 24,865 28,095 30,810 36,300 2002 : 13,275 : Total : 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 65,505 80,405 96,330 114,725 131,830 148,380 166,925 194,065 2002 : 77,610 : Dehydrated 4/: 2000 5/ : 51,946 2001 5/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,660 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. 5/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, December 1, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2001 : Crop of 2002 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2001 : Prod : : 2002 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 1,424 1,200 84 4,450 1,500 34 CO : 21,357 15,600 73 27,885 20,100 72 ID : 120,200 87,500 73 133,385 92,000 69 ME : 16,430 12,200 74 16,960 12,600 74 MI : 13,950 8,200 59 13,878 7,900 57 MN : 18,425 12,000 65 18,700 12,000 64 MT : 3,296 3,000 91 3,213 3,050 95 NE : 8,400 4,850 58 8,414 5,650 67 NY : 5,942 2,400 40 5,500 2,500 45 ND : 26,400 19,500 74 23,460 16,000 68 OH : 1,097 300 27 1,008 190 19 OR : 20,730 17,500 84 24,936 18,000 72 PA : 3,173 1,800 57 2,590 1,200 46 WA : 94,400 53,000 56 95,200 53,000 56 WI : 31,955 19,700 62 31,125 19,500 63 : Oth Sts : 387,179 258,750 67 410,704 265,190 65 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2002 totaled 29.3 million cwt. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, December 1, 2001-2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 6 4 1 1 93 95 ID : 1 6 4 94 95 ME : 4 4 48 47 3 2 45 47 MI : 1 1 90 88 9 11 MN : 8 12 5 7 87 81 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 14 15 16 16 7 6 63 63 OR : 1 1 1 2 97 98 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 1 1 1 4 6 94 92 WI : 5 3 12 31 83 66 : 11 St Avg: 3 3 9 11 4 3 84 83 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 8.7 3.2 8.9 8.7 3.2 8.9 CO : 75.8 68.1 71.6 75.6 67.8 71.5 ID : 415.0 350.0 375.0 413.0 348.0 373.0 10 SW Co : 28.0 23.0 27.0 28.0 23.0 27.0 Other ID : 387.0 327.0 348.0 385.0 325.0 346.0 IN : 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 ME : 64.0 62.0 64.0 64.0 62.0 64.0 MA : 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 MI : 49.0 46.0 46.5 47.5 45.0 45.5 MN : 66.0 59.0 61.0 59.0 55.0 55.0 MT : 11.5 10.5 10.3 11.3 10.3 10.2 NE : 26.0 22.5 21.5 24.7 22.4 21.3 NV : 7.0 6.5 7.6 7.0 6.5 7.6 NM : 6.8 4.2 4.0 6.8 4.2 4.0 NY : 22.0 23.5 22.5 21.3 23.3 22.0 ND : 124.0 118.0 118.0 110.0 110.0 102.0 OH : 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.2 OR : 57.0 45.0 50.0 56.5 44.5 49.8 Malheur : 10.5 9.0 8.0 10.5 9.0 8.0 Other OR : 46.5 36.0 42.0 46.0 35.5 41.8 PA : 13.5 14.0 15.0 13.0 13.5 14.0 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 SD : 3.5 2.8 1.1 2.8 2.7 1.1 UT : 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.8 WA : 175.0 160.0 170.0 175.0 160.0 170.0 WI : 86.0 84.0 85.0 84.5 83.0 83.0 : Total : 1,223.0 1,091.5 1,143.5 1,192.2 1,073.2 1,114.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 430 445 500 3,741 1,424 4,450 CO : 370 315 390 27,972 21,357 27,885 ID : 369 345 358 152,320 120,200 133,385 10 SW Co : 490 450 455 13,720 10,350 12,285 Other ID : 360 338 350 138,600 109,850 121,100 IN : 280 320 260 784 928 728 ME : 280 265 265 17,920 16,430 16,960 MA : 255 265 255 638 742 740 MI : 315 310 305 14,963 13,950 13,878 MN : 360 335 340 21,240 18,425 18,700 MT : 310 320 315 3,503 3,296 3,213 NE : 410 375 395 10,127 8,400 8,414 NV : 450 360 340 3,150 2,340 2,584 NM : 400 340 400 2,720 1,428 1,600 NY : 280 255 250 5,964 5,942 5,500 ND : 245 240 230 26,950 26,400 23,460 OH : 270 255 240 1,134 1,097 1,008 OR : 543 466 501 30,683 20,730 24,936 Malheur : 425 410 400 4,463 3,690 3,200 Other OR : 570 480 520 26,220 17,040 21,736 PA : 270 235 185 3,510 3,173 2,590 RI : 275 280 160 138 140 80 SD : 290 240 300 812 648 330 UT : 290 265 305 435 345 244 WA : 600 590 560 105,000 94,400 95,200 WI : 400 385 375 33,800 31,955 31,125 : Total : 392 367 374 467,504 393,750 417,010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1999: 4,005 3,200 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 2,700 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 1,200 231 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,450 1,500 CO : : : 1999: 25,762 19,700 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 20,300 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 15,600 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 20,100 ID : : : 1999: 133,330 96,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 111,000 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 87,500 8,690 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 92,000 ME : : : 1999: 17,813 14,500 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 14,100 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 12,200 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 12,600 MI : : : 1999: 14,963 8,800 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 8,700 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 8,200 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 7,900 MN : : : 1999: 18,020 10,600 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 14,200 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 12,000 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 12,000 MT : : : 1999: 3,325 3,200 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 3,350 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 3,000 225 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,213 3,050 NE : : : 1999: 8,904 5,300 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 7,500 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 4,850 557 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,414 5,650 NY : : : 1999: 6,758 3,500 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 2,600 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 2,400 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 2,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1999: 26,400 17,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 18,500 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 19,500 2,340 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 16,000 OH : : : 1999: 987 300 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 350 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 300 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 1,008 190 OR : : : 1999: 28,020 22,000 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 25,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 17,500 1,212 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 18,000 PA : : : 1999: 3,080 2,000 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 2,000 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 1,800 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 1,200 WA : : : 1999: 95,200 48,000 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 59,000 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 53,000 4,200 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 95,200 53,000 WI : : : 1999: 34,000 21,000 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 21,000 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 19,700 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 19,500 15 Sts : : : 1999: 420,567 275,100 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 310,300 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 258,750 25,414 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 410,704 265,190 Fall Sts : : : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,834 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 417,010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1999-2001 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 CO : : : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 ID : : : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 ME : : : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 MI : : : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 MN : : : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 NY : : : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 ND : : : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 OR : : : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 PA : : : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 WA : : : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 WI : : : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Harvest Loss by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types :Year: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Cwt per Acre : : ID :2001: 13 32 31 :2002: 18 26 26 : : ME :2001: 12 20 16 :2002: 16 15 15 : : MN :2001: 22 4 21 20 :2002: 14 12 32 24 : : ND :2001: 8 23 26 22 :2002: 27 25 38 30 : : OR :2001: 15 38 36 :2002: 14 21 17 : : WA :2001: 28 30 :2002: 29 26 26 : : WI :2001: 19 18 16 17 :2002: 8 12 13 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for postharvest samples. Potatoes: Number of Hills by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Reds : Whites : Russets : :------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. :Year: of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ID :2001: 3 13,845 19 12,389 254 12,103 :2002: 14 13,553 276 12,454 : : ME :2001: 5 15,088 82 13,413 56 9,304 :2002: 5 13,946 91 13,440 62 9,596 : : MN :2001: 44 12,517 15 10,949 76 12,361 :2002: 38 11,761 17 11,273 77 12,366 : : ND :2001: 24 10,357 45 9,929 47 11,039 :2002: 15 9,906 63 10,197 54 11,253 : : OR :2001: 19 13,537 85 12,327 :2002: 5 15,193 32 13,903 45 13,603 : : WA :2001: 9 13,930 9 13,358 155 14,066 :2002: 7 15,440 17 14,951 99 14,692 : : WI :2001: 13 15,851 38 14,583 77 12,573 :2002: 10 15,822 37 15,208 74 12,671 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato fields selected for objective yield samples. 2002 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 2002. These 7 States account for 82 percent of the fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements. Survey data from the objective yield counts are presented in the previous two tables. They are provided to show information about the crop and trends in production. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1997-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 29,251 2002 : 417,010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1999-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 16.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of December 1 Production and Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.5 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 265 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.5 percent or approximately 6.6 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.3 percent or approximately 11.4 million cwt. Also shown is the 10-year (1992-2001) record of the differences between the December 1 production and stocks estimates and the final estimates. Using stocks again as an example, changes between the December 1 estimate and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 5.4 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the December 1 stocks estimates have been below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years. Production estimates have been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : Ten Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% Confidence : : Number Estimate : : Level : Quantity : of Years :Percent:----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Below : Above : :Percent: Quant : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.5 4.3 11.40 5.43 0.11 14.50 8 2 Production : 1.7 2.9 12.09 5.84 0.40 13.46 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1992-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 232,320 94.1 246,820 1993 : 240,370 96.4 249,410 1994 : 264,090 96.6 273,290 1995 : 252,030 98.2 256,710 1996 : 291,650 98.8 295,100 1997 : 274,250 98.4 278,830 1998 : 281,020 100.0 280,910 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- December Potato Stocks Up 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 265 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 2002, up 2 percent from last year but 15 percent below 2000. Storage accounted for 65 percent of the 2002 fall production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 11 percent round white, 3 percent long white (Shepody), and 83 percent russet; with more round whites and fewer long whites and russets than a year ago. Disappearance, at 146 million cwt, from the start of harvest to December 1, is up 13 percent from the same period last year but 2 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 16.2 million cwt, is up 10 percent from last year and 14 percent below two years ago. Processors used 77.6 million cwt of 2002 crop potatoes so far this season, up 18 percent from a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago. Idaho and Malheur processing gained 36 percent while Washington and the rest of Oregon processed 15 percent more 2002 crop potatoes than a year ago. Dehydrators used 15.7 million cwt to date. Colorado has joined the group of 9 processing States this year and South Dakota has dropped out. Western States held 188 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, up 6 percent from last year but 15 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are up 5 percent from last year and Colorado's are up 29 percent. The return of irrigation water to the Klamath Basin boosted California's stocks 25 percent from last year and helped increase Oregon's stocks by 3 percent. Washington's sheds stored the same amount of potatoes as last year but Montana's stocks are up 2 percent. Central States accounted for 61.2 million cwt of potato stocks this December, down 5 percent from last year and 13 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks dropped 18 percent, Ohio fell 37 percent, Michigan slipped 4 percent and Wisconsin declined 1 percent from last year's level. Minnesota's stocks are equal to last year while Nebraska's storages hold 16 percent more than in 2001. Eastern States stored 16.3 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, down 1 percent from last year and 13 percent below 2000. Maine's stocks were up 3 percent, New York's gained 4 percent, but were offset by a 33 percent decline in Pennsylvania. Fall Potato Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from November Production of fall potatoes for 2002 is forecast at 417 million cwt, up less than 1 percent from November and 6 percent above last year. However, this is 11 percent smaller than the record high 2000 crop. Area harvested, at 1.11 million acres, is up 4 percent from last year but 7 percent below two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 374 cwt per acre, 3 cwt above last month and 7 cwt above last year. Production estimates are generally lower this year in Central and Eastern States but higher in the West. Harvest was completed on schedule in nearly all States. The nine Western States' production is forecast at 293 million cwt, up 11 percent from last year but 11 percent below 2000. Acreage harvested, at 695,800 acres, gained 8 percent from last year, while the average yield of 422 cwt per acre is up 11 cwt. California growers responded with record high yields with adequate irrigation water available in the Tule Lake Basin. Colorado's production rose 31 percent as farmers had sufficient irrigation water to sustain them through the hot, dry summer weather. Idaho's production increased 11 percent from last year as potatoes were able to size up at the end of the season. Production in Oregon was adjusted upward 31 percent from the November forecast with current storage totals and corrections made in objective yield data. Production now stands at 24.9 million cwt, up 20 percent from last year but 19 percent below 2000. Washington's production forecast is down 5 percent from last month but up 1 percent from 2001 despite lower yields. Production in Nevada and New Mexico rose 10 and 12 percent, respectively, from a year ago. Montana's production is down 3 percent and Utah is down 29 percent. Eight Central States' production is forecast at 97.6 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year and 11 percent below 2000. Harvested area, estimated at 314,900 acres, is down 3 percent, while the average yield of 310 cwt per acre is down 3 cwt from a year ago. Minnesota and Nebraska register production increases from last year but the other 6 Central States are down. Spring rains and flooding reduced production potential in North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Indiana production fell 22 percent from last year, North Dakota was down 11 percent, Wisconsin dropped 3 percent, and Ohio output fell 8 percent. Minnesota gained 1 percent and Nebraska's production is up fractionally. Five Eastern States' production is forecast at 25.9 million cwt, down 2 percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 103,400 acres, 1 percent above last year, but the average yield fell to 250 cwt per acre, 9 cwt below last season. Maine's production is up 3 percent from last year but the other 4 States are down. Production in New York dropped 7 percent from last year and Pennsylvania fell 18 percent. Massachusetts' production is down less than 1 percent and Rhode Island is off 43 percent. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 16, 2003. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). 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