Pot 1-2 (2-03) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 14, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 3 Percent The 15 major potato States held 197 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2003, up 3 percent from last year but 16 percent below 2001. Storage accounts for 48 percent of the 2002 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Stocks by type show more reds and round whites but fewer long whites and russets than a year ago. Disappearance of 213 million cwt, is up 9 percent from last year but 5 percent below 2000 crop movement. Shrink and loss, of 20.4 million cwt so far this season, is up 3 percent from last year but 22 percent below the same date in 2000. Processors in the 9 major States used 109 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 13 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 23.7 million cwt of the total processing. This report contains corrected variety information on percent of potatoes planted. This table was previously published in the November 2002 Crop Production report. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1993-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 410,912 265,890 232,140 197,470 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2000-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 : ME 2/ : 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,275 2,720 3,300 : WA & OR-Oth : 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 45,640 : Oth Sts 3/ : 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 13,270 15,325 19,060 22,255 24,865 28,095 30,810 36,300 2002 : 13,275 15,720 18,960 : Total : 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 65,505 80,405 96,330 114,725 131,830 148,380 166,925 194,065 2002 : 77,610 92,790 109,100 : Dehydrated 4/: 2000 5/ : 51,946 2001 5/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,660 19,655 23,690 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 5/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2001 : Crop of 2002 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 2002 : Prod : : 2003 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 1,424 800 56 4,450 1,300 29 CO : 21,357 11,000 52 27,885 15,000 54 ID : 120,200 68,000 57 133,385 72,500 54 ME : 16,430 8,900 54 16,960 9,500 56 MI : 13,950 4,800 34 13,878 5,500 40 MN : 18,425 9,500 52 18,700 9,100 49 MT : 3,296 2,630 80 3,224 2,900 90 NE : 8,400 3,200 38 8,611 3,900 45 NY : 5,942 1,000 17 5,500 1,100 20 ND : 26,400 14,500 55 23,460 11,200 48 OH : 1,097 60 5 1,008 120 12 OR : 20,730 14,000 68 24,936 12,000 48 PA : 3,173 1,000 32 2,590 850 33 WA : 94,400 40,000 42 95,200 40,000 42 WI : 31,955 12,800 40 31,125 12,500 40 : 15 States : 387,179 192,190 50 410,912 197,470 48 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2002 totaled 29.3 million cwt. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, February 1, 2002-2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 6 4 1 1 93 95 ID : 1 6 4 94 95 ME : 3 5 46 44 2 1 49 50 MI : 1 89 98 10 2 MN : 6 11 5 5 89 84 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 16 12 13 15 3 3 68 70 OR : 1 1 100 98 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 1 1 3 98 96 WI : 1 3 25 24 74 73 : 11 St Avg: 2 3 8 9 3 2 87 86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1999: 4,005 2,200 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 1,700 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 800 231 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,450 1,300 CO : : : 1999: 25,762 15,100 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 15,100 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 11,000 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 15,000 ID : : : 1999: 133,330 76,500 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 87,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 68,000 8,690 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 72,500 ME : : : 1999: 17,813 11,300 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 10,900 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 8,900 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 9,500 MI : : : 1999: 14,963 5,800 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 5,200 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 4,800 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 5,500 MN : : : 1999: 18,020 7,500 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 11,600 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 9,500 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 9,100 MT : : : 1999: 3,325 3,000 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 3,000 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 2,630 225 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 2,900 NE : : : 1999: 8,904 3,250 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 4,600 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 3,200 557 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 3,900 NY : : : 1999: 6,758 1,800 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 1,400 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 1,000 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 1,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1999: 26,400 11,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 13,700 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 14,500 2,340 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 11,200 OH : : : 1999: 987 100 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 60 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 60 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 1,008 120 OR : : : 1999: 28,020 18,600 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 20,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 14,000 1,212 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 12,000 PA : : : 1999: 3,080 1,000 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 1,100 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 1,000 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 850 WA : : : 1999: 95,200 35,000 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 44,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 40,000 4,200 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 95,200 40,000 WI : : : 1999: 34,000 15,000 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 13,900 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 12,800 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 12,500 15 Sts : : : 1999: 420,567 207,150 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 234,260 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 192,190 25,414 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 410,912 197,470 Fall Sts : : : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,834 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 417,228 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1999-2001 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 CO : : : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 ID : : : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 ME : : : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 MI : : : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 MN : : : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 NY : : : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 ND : : : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 OR : : : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 PA : : : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 WA : : : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 WI : : : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- February Potato Stocks Up 3 Percent The 15 major potato States held 197 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 2003, up 3 percent from last year but 16 percent below 2001. Storage accounts for 48 percent of the 2002 fall storage State's production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Stocks by type are 3 percent red, 9 percent round white, 2 percent long white (Shepody), and 86 percent russet. There are more reds and round whites but fewer long whites and russets than a year ago. Disappearance, at 213 million cwt, from the start of harvest to February 1, is up 9 percent from the same period last year but 5 percent below two years ago. January disappearance was 34.7 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year ago but 15 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 20.4 million cwt, is up 3 percent from last year but 22 percent below two years ago. Processors used 109 million cwt of 2002 crop potatoes so far this season, up 13 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. January usage of 16.3 million cwt is 2 percent above last year but 9 percent below two years ago. Dehydrators used 23.7 million cwt to date. Western States held 144 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, up 5 percent from last year but 16 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are up 7 percent from last year and Colorado's are up 36 percent. California's stocks are 63 percent above last year and Montana's are up 10 percent. Washington's potato stocks are equal to last year, while Oregon's storage is down 14 percent. Central States account for 42.3 million cwt of potato stocks this February 1, down 6 percent from last year and 14 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks dropped 23 percent, Minnesota slipped 4 percent, and Wisconsin is down 2 percent from a year earlier. Potato stocks in Nebraska are up 22 percent from last year, Michigan is up 15 percent, and Ohio's small remainder is double last year's level. Eastern States stored 11.5 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, up 5 percent from last year but 15 percent below the 2000 crop. Maine's stocks are up 7 percent and New York's are up 10 percent from a year ago, while Pennsylvania's have dropped 15 percent from last year. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1999-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 16.2 18.4 20.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 197 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.2 percent or approximately 6.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent or approximately 11.1 million cwt. The 10-year (1992-2001) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.8 million cwt, ranging from 9.6 million cwt above the final to 14.2 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1992-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 96.0 185,490 1994 : 196,005 96.8 202,470 1995 : 184,755 97.6 189,360 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 105.0 192,190 2002 : 197,470 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1997-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 29,251 2002 : 417,228 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Percent of Varieties Planted, 2002 Crop (Revised) The table below is a correction of the "Percent of Major Varieties Planted" table published in the November 2002 Crop Production report. Silverton Russets were erroneously coded in the original publication. The source of the data is the Potato Objective Yield Survey and a special variety survey from Colorado accounting for 89 percent of the estimated U. S. fall potato production. Variety data shown below are actual percentages from these surveys. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted, Selected States and 8 States Total, 2002 Crop ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ State :Pct. of :: State :Pct. of :: State :Pct. of and :Planted :: and :Planted :: and :Planted Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : :: : :: : CO : :: La Soda : 2.2 :: WI : R Norkotah : 59.1 :: NorValley : 1.7 :: R Burbank : 18.7 R Nugget : 12.7 :: Shepody : 1.4 :: R Norkotah : 17.7 Centennial R : 6.5 :: Snowden : 1.2 :: Frito-Lay : 15.3 Yukon Gold : 3.6 :: Yukon Gold : 1.1 :: Goldrush : 11.9 Sangre : 2.0 :: Other : 10.1 :: Norland : 9.8 Silverton R : 1.9 :: Total : 100.0 :: Snowden : 6.1 Cherry Red : 0.8 :: : :: Superior : 5.7 Other : 13.4 :: ND : :: Silverton R : 5.5 Total : 100.0 :: R Burbank : 39.3 :: Atlantic : 2.7 : :: Shepody : 20.1 :: Pike : 1.1 ID : :: NorValley : 10.2 :: Ontario : 1.0 R Burbank : 71.0 :: Norland : 5.6 :: Other : 4.5 Ranger R : 12.0 :: Frito-Lay : 4.8 :: Total : 100.0 R Norkotah : 7.5 :: Dakota Pearl : 3.4 :: : Shepody : 3.4 :: Snowden : 2.6 :: TOTAL(8 States): Other : 6.1 :: La Soda : 2.3 :: R Burbank : 45.9 Total : 100.0 :: Goldrush : 2.2 :: R Norkotah : 11.8 : :: La Rouge : 1.3 :: Ranger R : 9.3 ME : :: Other : 8.2 :: Shepody : 7.1 R Burbank : 36.4 :: Total : 100.0 :: Frito-Lay : 3.1 Frito-Lay : 10.9 :: : :: Norland : 2.8 Ontario : 9.7 :: OR : :: Umatilla R : 1.5 Shepody : 9.2 :: R Burbank : 24.3 :: Goldrush : 1.3 Superior : 7.2 :: Ranger R : 19.2 :: NorValley : 1.3 R Norkotah : 4.7 :: Shepody : 18.8 :: Snowden : 1.0 Atlantic : 3.4 :: R Norkotah : 16.8 :: Superior : 1.0 Norwis : 2.2 :: Frito-Lay : 11.0 :: R Nugget : 0.9 Chieftain : 1.8 :: Umatilla R : 1.8 :: Chieftain : 0.8 Katahdin : 1.6 :: Other : 8.1 :: La Soda : 0.7 Norland : 1.6 :: Total : 100.0 :: Ontario : 0.6 Snowden : 1.4 :: : :: Silverton R : 0.6 Yukon Gold : 1.4 :: WA : :: Centennial R : 0.5 Goldrush : 1.1 :: R Burbank : 34.8 :: Atlantic : 0.4 Other : 7.4 :: Ranger R : 22.3 :: Yukon Gold : 0.4 Total : 100.0 :: R Norkotah : 11.8 :: Dakota Pearl : 0.4 : :: Shepody : 10.3 :: Pontiac : 0.3 MN : :: Umatilla R : 8.1 :: Cascade : 0.2 R Burbank : 55.2 :: Chieftain : 3.9 :: La Rouge : 0.2 Norland : 20.1 :: La Soda : 1.8 :: Sangre : 0.1 Pontiac : 4.2 :: Other : 7.0 :: Other : 7.8 Cascade : 2.8 :: Total : 100.0 :: Total : 100.0 : :: : :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 13, 2003. 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