Pot 1-2 (3-03) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 13, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 3 Percent The 15 major potato States held 164 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2003, up 3 percent from last year but 17 percent below 2001. Storage accounts for 40 percent of the 2002 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 247 million cwt of potatoes from the 2002 crop, is up 8 percent from last year but 5 percent below 2000 movement. Shrink and loss, of 22.2 million cwt so far in the 2002 season, is up 2 percent from last year but 24 percent below two years ago. Processors in the 9 major States used 126 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 10 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 28.0 million cwt of the total processing. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1993-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 410,912 265,890 232,140 197,470 163,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2000-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 : ME 2/ : 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,275 2,720 3,300 3,855 : WA & OR-Oth : 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 3/ : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 : Oth Sts 4/ : 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 13,270 15,325 19,060 22,255 24,865 28,095 30,810 36,300 2002 : 13,275 15,720 18,960 22,115 : Total : 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 65,505 80,405 96,330 114,725 131,830 148,380 166,925 194,065 2002 3/ : 77,610 92,790 107,650 126,490 : Dehydrated 5/: 2000 6/ : 51,946 2001 6/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,660 19,655 23,690 27,950 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ February revised. 4/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 6/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2001 : Crop of 2002 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 2002 : Prod : : 2003 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 1,424 600 42 4,450 1,000 22 CO : 21,357 9,400 44 27,885 12,700 46 ID : 120,200 58,000 48 133,385 62,000 46 ME : 16,430 7,100 43 16,960 8,000 47 MI : 13,950 3,200 23 13,878 4,300 31 MN : 18,425 7,900 43 18,700 7,400 40 MT : 3,296 2,460 75 3,224 2,800 87 NE 2/ : 8,400 8,611 NY : 5,942 600 10 5,500 550 10 ND : 26,400 12,300 47 23,460 9,300 40 OH 2/ : 1,097 1,008 OR : 20,730 11,500 55 24,936 9,900 40 PA : 3,173 600 19 2,590 500 19 WA : 94,400 32,500 34 95,200 33,000 35 WI : 31,955 10,000 31 31,125 9,500 31 : Oth Sts : 2,430 2,950 : 15 States : 387,179 158,590 41 410,912 163,900 40 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2002 totaled 29.3 million cwt. 2/ Combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1999-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 16.2 18.4 20.4 22.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1999: 4,005 1,800 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 1,300 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 600 231 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,450 1,000 CO : : : 1999: 25,762 12,900 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 13,000 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 9,400 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 12,700 ID : : : 1999: 133,330 65,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 76,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 58,000 8,690 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 62,000 ME : : : 1999: 17,813 9,400 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 8,700 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 7,100 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 8,000 MI : : : 1999: 14,963 4,200 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 3,400 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 3,200 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 4,300 MN : : : 1999: 18,020 6,200 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 10,100 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 7,900 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 7,400 MT : : : 1999: 3,325 2,700 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 2,800 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 2,460 225 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 2,800 NE 1/ : : : 1999: 8,904 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 557 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 NY : : : 1999: 6,758 1,300 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 1,000 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 600 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production : Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1999: 26,400 9,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 11,500 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 12,300 2,340 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 9,300 OH 1/ : : : 1999: 987 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 1,008 OR : : : 1999: 28,020 15,500 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 17,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 11,500 1,212 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 9,900 PA : : : 1999: 3,080 700 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 830 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 600 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 500 WA : : : 1999: 95,200 28,000 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 37,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 32,500 4,200 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 95,200 33,000 WI : : : 1999: 34,000 10,600 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 10,500 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 10,000 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 9,500 Oth Sts : : : 1999: 2,320 : 2000: 3,540 : 2001: 2,430 : 2002: 2,950 15 Sts : : : 1999: 420,567 169,620 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 197,670 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 158,590 25,414 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 410,912 163,900 Fall Sts : : : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 23,868 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,834 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 417,228 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1999-2001 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 CO : : : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 ID : : : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 ME : : : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 MI : : : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 MN : : : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 NY : : : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 ND : : : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 OR : : : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 PA : : : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 WA : : : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 WI : : : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- March Potato Stocks Up 3 Percent The 15 major potato States held 164 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 2003, up 3 percent from last year but 17 percent below 2001. Storage accounts for 40 percent of the 2002 fall storage State's production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance, at 247 million cwt, from the start of harvest in 2002 to March 1, is up 8 percent from the same period last year but 5 percent below two years ago. February disappearance was 33.6 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year ago but 8 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 22.2 million cwt, is up 2 percent from last year but 24 percent below two years ago. Processors used 126 million cwt of 2002 crop potatoes so far this season, up 10 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. February usage of 18.8 million cwt is 2 percent above last year and 3 percent above two years ago. Dehydrators used 28.0 million cwt to date. This processing report does not include chip potatoes from the Klamath Basin of Oregon and California. Western States held 121 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, up 6 percent from last year but 18 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are up 7 percent from last year and Colorado's are up 35 percent. Washington's potato stocks are 2 percent above last year, but Oregon's storage is down 14 percent. California's stocks are 67 percent above last year and Montana's are up 14 percent. Central States account for 33.5 million cwt of potato stocks this March 1, down 7 percent from last year and 14 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks dropped 24 percent, Minnesota's slipped 6 percent, and Wisconsin stocks are down 5 percent from a year earlier. Potato storage in Michigan is up 34 percent from last year, while stocks in Nebraska and Ohio together are up 21 percent. Eastern States stored 9.05 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, up 9 percent from last year but 14 percent below the 2000 crop. Maine's stocks are up 13 percent from last year, but New York's are down 8 percent and Pennsylvania's dropped 17 percent. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 164 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.7 percent or approximately 6.1 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.4 percent or approximately 10.5 million cwt. The 10-year (1993-2002) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.2 million cwt, ranging from 9.28 million cwt above the final to 13.1 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 6 years and above 4 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, 1992-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 95.2 153,435 1994 : 163,305 96.3 169,570 1995 : 152,255 97.6 156,020 1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670 2001 : 167,870 105.9 158,590 2002 : 163,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1997-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 29,251 2002 : 417,228 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 15, 2003. 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