Pot 1-2 (5-03) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 14, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 83.2 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2003, up 2 percent from last year but 24 percent below 2001. Potatoes in storage account for 20 percent of the 2002 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 328 million cwt of potatoes from the 2002 crop is up 7 percent from 2001 but 6 percent below 2000 crop movement. Shrink and loss, of 25.8 million cwt so far in the 2002 season, is up 3 percent from last year but 28 percent below two years ago. Processors in the 9 major States used 161 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 9 percent from a year ago but 5 percent below two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 36.1 million cwt of the total processing. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1993-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 410,912 265,890 232,140 197,470 163,900 125,030 83,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2000-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 75,270 93,460 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 : ME 2/ : 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,760 5,340 7,015 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,275 2,720 3,300 3,855 4,485 5,205 : WA & OR-Oth : 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,850 78,010 91,130 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 : Oth Sts 3/ : 2000 : 12,665 16,215 18,975 22,095 25,410 28,695 31,765 39,020 2001 : 13,270 15,325 19,060 22,255 24,865 28,095 30,810 36,300 2002 : 13,275 15,720 18,960 22,115 25,205 27,835 : Total : 2000 : 78,570 95,380 113,270 131,620 151,405 170,065 190,385 230,625 2001 : 65,505 80,405 96,330 114,725 131,830 148,380 166,925 194,065 2002 : 77,610 92,790 107,650 126,490 144,640 161,180 : Dehydrated 4/: 2000 5/ : 51,946 2001 5/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,660 19,655 23,690 27,950 31,915 36,075 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000 and 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 5/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2001 : Crop of 2002 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 2002 2/ : Prod : : 2003 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 1,424 4,450 400 9 CO : 21,357 5,100 24 27,885 5,400 19 ID : 120,200 32,500 27 133,385 34,500 26 ME : 16,430 3,300 20 16,960 3,800 22 MI : 13,950 400 3 13,878 900 6 MN : 18,425 4,300 23 18,700 4,500 24 MT : 3,296 450 14 3,224 400 12 NE : 8,400 8,611 NY : 5,942 5,500 ND : 26,400 6,900 26 23,460 4,700 20 OH : 1,097 1,008 OR : 20,730 6,500 31 24,936 4,800 19 PA : 3,173 2,590 WA : 94,400 18,000 19 95,200 19,500 20 WI : 31,955 3,000 9 31,125 2,900 9 : Oth Sts : 750 1,380 : 15 States : 387,179 81,200 21 410,912 83,180 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2002 totaled 29.3 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1999-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1999 : 19.7 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.7 29.6 31.3 33.4 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 16.2 18.4 20.4 22.2 23.9 25.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : 1/ : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1999: 4,005 1,100 183 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 800 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 231 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,450 400 CO : : : 1999: 25,762 7,400 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 7,400 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 5,100 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 5,400 ID : : : 1999: 133,330 36,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 47,000 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 32,500 8,690 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 34,500 ME : : : 1999: 17,813 4,400 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 4,000 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 3,300 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 3,800 MI : : : 1999: 14,963 1,300 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 700 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 400 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 900 MN : : : 1999: 18,020 3,200 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 5,800 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 4,300 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 4,500 MT : : : 1999: 3,325 300 276 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 750 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 450 225 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 400 NE : : : 1999: 8,904 621 240 711 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 557 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 NY : : : 1999: 6,758 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1999-2002 Crop Years (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production : May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : 1/ : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1999: 26,400 4,500 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 6,800 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 6,900 2,340 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 4,700 OH : : : 1999: 987 88 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 1,008 OR : : : 1999: 28,020 9,000 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 10,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 6,500 1,212 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 4,800 PA : : : 1999: 3,080 150 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 WA : : : 1999: 95,200 14,500 4,320 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 105,000 21,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 18,000 4,200 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 95,200 19,500 WI : : : 1999: 34,000 4,400 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 3,300 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 3,000 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 2,900 Oth Sts : : : 1999: 665 : 2000: 1,110 : 2001: 750 : 2002: 1,380 15 Sts : : : 1999: 420,567 86,915 25,900 5,297 33,386 381,884 : 2000: 458,827 109,160 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 81,200 25,414 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 410,912 83,180 Fall Sts : : : 1999: 429,847 26,449 5,408 34,229 390,210 : 2000: 467,504 23,868 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,834 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 417,228 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1999-2001 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 CO : : : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 ID : : : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 ME : : : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 MI : : : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 MN : : : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 NY : : : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 ND : : : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 OR : : : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 PA : : : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 WA : : : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 WI : : : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- May Potato Stocks Up 2 Percent The 15 major potato storage States held 83.2 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 2003, up 2 percent from last year but 24 percent below 2001. Potatoes in storage account for 20 percent of the 2002 fall storage State's production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance, at 328 million cwt, from the start of harvest in 2002 to May 1, is up 7 percent from the same period last year but 6 percent below two years ago. April disappearance was 41.9 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year ago but 6 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 25.8 million cwt, is up 3 percent from last year but 28 percent below two years ago. Processors used 161 million cwt of 2002 crop potatoes so far this season, up 9 percent from a year ago but 5 percent below two years ago. April usage of 16.5 million cwt is virtually the same as last year but 11 percent below two years ago. Dehydrators used 36.1 million cwt to date. Western States held 65.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, up 4 percent from last year but 26 percent below two years ago. Potato stocks in Idaho and Colorado are both up 6 percent from last year. Washington's potato stocks are 8 percent above last year but Oregon's storage is down 26 percent. California's stocks are up nearly four fold from last year, while Montana's are down 11 percent. Central States account for 14.0 million cwt of potato stocks this May 1, down 7 percent from last year and 20 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks dropped 32 percent from last year, Wisconsin's stocks are down 3 percent, but Minnesota's stocks are up 5 percent from last year. Potatoes stored in Michigan are up 125 percent from last year, while stocks in Nebraska and Ohio together are more than double. Eastern States stored 4.18 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, up 20 percent from last year but 2 percent below the 2000 crop. Maine's stocks are up 15 percent from last year. Pennsylvania and New York are included in the "Other States" total. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 83.2 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.2 percent or approximately 6.0 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 12.4 percent or approximately 10.3 million cwt. The 10-year (1993-2002) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.8 million cwt, ranging from 9.94 million cwt above the final to 11.5 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 years and above 2 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks, United States, 1992-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 93.4 72,860 1994 : 81,495 93.0 87,600 1995 : 72,210 95.2 75,870 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895 1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 : 111,425 102.1 109,160 2001 : 91,140 112.2 81,200 2002 : 83,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1997-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 29,251 2002 : 417,228 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 13, 2003. 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