Pot 1-2 (12-03) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Michael Miller at (202) 720-7235, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent The 15 major potato States held 267 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2003, up 1 percent from last year and 3 percent above 2001. Potatoes in storage account for 66 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 137 million cwt of potatoes is down 4 percent from last year but 7 percent above 2001 movement. Shrink and loss, at 14.7 million cwt so far this season, is down 5 percent from last year but unchanged from the same date in 2001. Processors in the 9 major States used 70.7 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 8 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 14.3 million cwt of the total processing, down 9 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1994-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,821 264,585 231,690 199,320 165,310 125,870 82,940 45,980 2003 : 404,459 267,160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 : ME 2/ : 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 : 1,585 : WA & OR-Oth : 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 : 32,240 : Oth Sts 3/ : 2001 : 13,170 14,925 19,000 22,115 24,655 27,815 30,460 37,740 2002 : 12,190 14,865 17,865 20,740 23,580 26,000 29,075 36,705 2003 : 12,570 : Total : 2001 : 65,405 80,005 96,270 114,585 131,620 148,100 166,575 195,505 2002 : 76,480 91,930 106,600 125,165 143,035 159,365 177,740 209,040 2003 : 70,705 : Dehydrated 4/: 2001 5/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,670 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,910 36,105 40,455 48,943 2003 : 14,250 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002 and 2003. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 5/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, December 1, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2002 : Crop of 2003 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2002 : Prod : : 2003 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,264 3,300 77 3,444 2,700 78 CO : 27,885 20,500 74 23,652 17,800 75 ID : 133,385 92,000 69 123,180 86,000 70 ME : 16,960 12,600 74 17,030 13,500 79 MI : 13,878 7,900 57 15,015 8,400 56 MN : 18,700 12,000 64 22,330 14,000 63 MT : 3,224 3,100 96 3,392 3,200 94 NE : 8,611 5,500 64 9,660 6,700 69 NY : 5,500 2,400 44 6,510 3,000 46 ND : 23,460 16,000 68 26,880 19,400 72 OH : 903 85 9 1,290 260 20 OR : 24,936 17,500 70 20,991 18,000 86 PA : 2,590 1,400 54 3,915 2,200 56 WA : 92,400 50,000 54 93,150 51,000 55 WI : 31,125 20,300 65 34,020 21,000 62 : 15 States : 407,821 264,585 65 404,459 267,160 66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2003 totaled 28.3 million cwt. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, December 1, 2002-2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 5 1 2 95 93 ID : 1 1 4 3 95 96 ME : 4 4 47 46 2 2 47 48 MI : 1 1 88 86 11 13 MN : 12 14 7 4 1 81 81 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 15 14 16 23 6 7 63 56 OR : 1 1 1 1 98 98 PA : 3 4 97 96 WA : 1 1 1 1 6 6 92 92 WI : 3 7 31 29 66 64 : 11 St Avg: 3 4 11 12 3 3 83 81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 3.2 8.2 8.4 3.2 8.2 8.4 CO : 68.1 71.6 66.3 67.8 71.5 65.7 ID : 350.0 375.0 360.0 348.0 373.0 358.0 10 SW Co : 23.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 27.0 25.0 Other ID : 327.0 348.0 335.0 325.0 346.0 333.0 IN : 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 ME : 62.0 64.0 66.0 62.0 64.0 65.5 MA : 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.8 MI : 46.0 46.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 45.5 MN : 59.0 61.0 60.0 55.0 55.0 58.0 MT : 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.3 10.4 10.6 NE : 22.5 22.0 23.5 22.4 21.8 23.0 NV : 6.5 7.6 8.3 6.5 7.6 8.0 NM : 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 NY : 23.5 22.5 22.2 23.3 22.0 21.7 ND : 118.0 118.0 117.0 110.0 102.0 112.0 OH : 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.3 OR : 45.0 50.0 42.8 44.5 49.8 42.6 Malheur : 9.0 8.0 5.8 9.0 8.0 5.8 Other OR : 36.0 42.0 37.0 35.5 41.8 36.8 PA : 14.0 15.0 14.5 13.5 14.0 13.5 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 SD : 2.8 1.1 1.0 2.7 1.1 1.0 UT : 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.0 WA : 160.0 165.0 163.0 160.0 165.0 162.0 WI : 84.0 85.0 82.0 83.0 83.0 81.0 : Total : 1,091.5 1,138.8 1,107.8 1,073.2 1,109.4 1,091.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 445 520 410 1,424 4,264 3,444 CO : 315 390 360 21,357 27,885 23,652 ID : 345 358 344 120,200 133,385 123,180 10 SW Co : 450 455 465 10,350 12,285 11,625 Other ID : 338 350 335 109,850 121,100 111,555 IN : 320 260 250 928 728 675 ME : 265 265 260 16,430 16,960 17,030 MA : 265 255 275 742 816 770 MI : 310 305 330 13,950 13,878 15,015 MN : 335 340 385 18,425 18,700 22,330 MT : 320 310 320 3,296 3,224 3,392 NE : 375 395 420 8,400 8,611 9,660 NV : 360 350 415 2,340 2,660 3,320 NM : 340 400 400 1,428 1,600 1,600 NY : 255 250 300 5,942 5,500 6,510 ND : 240 230 240 26,400 23,460 26,880 OH : 255 215 300 1,097 903 1,290 OR : 466 501 493 20,730 24,936 20,991 Malheur : 410 400 415 3,690 3,200 2,407 Other OR : 480 520 505 17,040 21,736 18,584 PA : 235 185 290 3,173 2,590 3,915 RI : 280 235 300 140 118 150 SD : 240 300 340 648 330 340 UT : 265 305 335 345 244 335 WA : 590 560 575 94,400 92,400 93,150 WI : 385 375 420 31,955 31,125 34,020 : Total : 367 373 377 393,750 414,317 411,649 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2000: 3,741 2,700 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 1,200 223 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,264 3,300 198 16 400 3,848 : 2003: 3,444 2,700 CO : : : 2000: 27,972 20,300 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 15,600 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 20,500 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003: 23,652 17,800 ID : : : 2000: 152,320 111,000 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 87,500 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 92,000 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003: 123,180 86,000 ME : : : 2000: 17,920 14,100 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 12,200 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 12,600 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003: 17,030 13,500 MI : : : 2000: 14,963 8,700 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 8,200 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 7,900 1,123 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003: 15,015 8,400 MN : : : 2000: 21,240 14,200 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 12,000 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 12,000 1,098 130 1,400 17,170 : 2003: 22,330 14,000 MT : : : 2000: 3,503 3,350 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 3,000 263 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 3,100 254 145 142 2,937 : 2003: 3,392 3,200 NE : : : 2000: 10,127 7,500 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 4,850 570 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 5,500 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003: 9,660 6,700 NY : : : 2000: 5,964 2,600 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 2,400 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 2,400 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003: 6,510 3,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production : Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2000: 26,950 18,500 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 19,500 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 16,000 2,242 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003: 26,880 19,400 OH : : : 2000: 1,134 350 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 300 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 903 85 89 2 12 889 : 2003: 1,290 260 OR : : : 2000: 30,683 25,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 17,500 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 17,500 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003: 20,991 18,000 PA : : : 2000: 3,510 2,000 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 1,800 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 1,400 276 38 78 2,474 : 2003: 3,915 2,200 WA : : : 2000: 105,000 59,000 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 53,000 3,960 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 92,400 50,000 3,960 300 6,500 85,600 : 2003: 93,150 51,000 WI : : : 2000: 33,800 21,000 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 19,700 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 20,300 1,848 265 1,775 29,085 : 2003: 34,020 21,000 15 Sts : : : 2000: 458,827 310,300 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 258,750 24,726 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 407,821 264,585 24,238 5,276 28,990 373,555 : 2003: 404,459 267,160 Fall Sts : : : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,143 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 414,317 24,681 5,401 29,425 379,491 : 2003: 411,649 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1998-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 28,639 2002 : 414,317 379,491 91.6 34,826 8.4 28,299 2003 : 411,649 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2000-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.1 20.3 22.2 24.0 25.7 27.2 29.0 2003 : 14.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 2003. These 7 States account for 82 percent of the fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements. Survey data from the objective yield counts are presented in the following two tables. They are provided to show information about the crop and trends in production. Potatoes: Harvest Loss by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2002-2003 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types :Year: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Cwt per Acre : : ID :2002: 18 26 26 :2003: 18 30 27 27 : : ME :2002: 16 15 15 :2003: 15 22 17 : : MN :2002: 14 12 32 24 :2003: 17 22 29 24 : : ND :2002: 27 25 38 30 :2003: 10 24 26 24 : : OR :2002: 14 21 17 :2003: 12 19 17 : : WA :2002: 29 26 26 :2003: 23 34 31 : : WI :2002: 8 12 13 12 :2003: 18 14 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for postharvest samples. 2/ Missing data represents insufficient number of samples. Potatoes: Number of Hills by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Reds : Whites : Russets : :------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. :Year: of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ID :2002: 14 13,553 276 12,454 :2003: 4 14,819 9 12,621 268 12,480 : : ME :2002: 5 13,946 91 13,440 62 9,596 :2003: 4 13,060 84 13,235 66 9,731 : : MN :2002: 38 11,761 17 11,273 77 12,366 :2003: 47 13,364 13 11,642 81 11,458 : : ND :2002: 15 9,906 63 10,197 54 11,253 :2003: 23 10,653 50 10,055 64 11,106 : : OR :2002: 5 15,193 32 13,903 45 13,603 :2003: 32 13,267 75 13,928 : : WA :2002: 7 15,440 17 14,951 99 14,692 :2003: 10 15,489 29 14,570 133 14,931 : : WI :2002: 10 15,822 37 15,208 74 12,671 :2003: 9 15,404 49 14,218 63 12,091 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato fields selected for objective yield samples. Potato Size and Grade Size and grade measurements came from potatoes harvested in the objective yield survey sample plots. Potatoes were harvested from six hills per sample randomly selected in each State using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Potatoes were sent to laboratories for sizing and grading according to accepted U.S. fresh grading standards. The following tables contain percent measurements as they actually occurred. Grading Categories of Potatoes 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : No. 1 : No. 2 or : : : : and :2 Inch Minimum 2/: Processing Usable : Cull 4/ : Total State : : :1 1/2 Inch Minimum 3/: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Round Red : Potatoes : : MN : 73.9 73.6 18.4 21.8 7.7 4.6 100.0 100.0 : : Round White : Potatoes : : ME 5/ : 82.8 77.4 10.8 10.7 6.4 11.9 100.0 100.0 MN 6/ : 79.1 10.5 10.4 100.0 ND : 88.7 82.1 10.0 11.9 1.3 6.0 100.0 100.0 WI 7/ : 67.2 80.4 14.3 19.4 18.5 0.2 100.0 100.0 : : Long : Potatoes: : (Russet : and : Shepody) : : ID 8/ : 67.6 69.7 31.3 29.4 1.1 0.9 100.0 100.0 ME 5/ : 76.0 61.2 17.0 21.7 7.0 17.1 100.0 100.0 MN : 74.3 80.1 22.5 17.0 3.2 2.9 100.0 100.0 ND : 78.3 73.9 18.9 18.1 2.8 8.0 100.0 100.0 OR : 76.0 77.3 23.3 21.8 0.7 0.9 100.0 100.0 WA : 72.0 79.1 26.5 19.2 1.5 1.7 100.0 100.0 WI 7/ : 69.2 83.8 15.2 16.2 15.6 100.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #1, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Marketing Service. 3/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Marketing Service. 4/ Potatoes not meeting the requirements for US #1 or US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Marketing Service. 5/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. 6/ For 2003, data were not published due to insufficient number of samples. 7/ For 2002, 1 7/8 in. minimum for No. 2's. In 2002, culls include potatoes less than 1 7/8 in. but greater than or equal to 1 1/2 in. 8/ Russets only. Round Potatoes: Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 Inch : State : - : - : - : - : - : - : and : and : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 : over : Total Year :--------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2002 : : Red : Potatoes: : MN : 4.6 4.1 12.0 17.6 56.2 5.2 0.3 100.0 : : White : Potatoes: : ME 2/ : 3.9 4.3 14.4 21.5 49.9 4.4 1.6 100.0 MN : 4.7 3.5 9.3 15.4 60.1 6.5 0.5 100.0 ND : 3.8 3.0 9.0 14.2 63.1 6.3 0.6 100.0 WI : 5.8 3.5 14.3 17.4 54.7 3.8 0.5 100.0 : Percent : 2003 : : Red : Potatoes: : MN : 7.8 6.0 15.5 21.9 47.4 1.4 100.0 : : White : Potatoes: : ME 2/ : 3.1 4.2 13.9 19.7 55.6 3.1 0.4 100.0 MN : 3.9 2.1 8.1 11.9 63.9 7.7 2.4 100.0 ND : 5.1 4.7 11.8 14.2 58.7 3.0 2.5 100.0 WI : 4.0 2.9 10.6 17.4 61.7 3.1 0.3 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Maine Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 in. : : : : : 14 : Crop : - : - : or : : : : : and : Year : 1 7/8 : 2 : 4-6 : 6-8 : 8-10 :10-12 :12-14 : Over :Total :---------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : Ounce : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2002 : 6.8 6.3 36.2 20.9 11.3 7.4 4.3 6.8 100.0 : 2003 : 9.1 7.5 32.9 21.4 12.5 7.4 5.2 4.0 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :1 1/2:1 5/8:1 7/8:2 in. : : : : : : : : : 14 : and : - : - : - : or : : : : : : : : : and : Year :1 5/8:1 7/8: 2 : 4-6 : 6 : 7 : 8 : 9 : 10 : 11 :12 : 13 :Over :Total :------------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : Ounce : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Pct : 2002 : : ID 2/ : 1.7 4.9 3.7 21.8 8.2 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.7 5.0 4.2 3.9 19.1 100.0 MN : 1.8 9.3 4.0 24.8 12.411.0 7.8 6.9 5.6 4.3 2.8 3.3 6.0 100.0 ND : 1.3 6.1 4.1 23.5 11.3 9.5 9.1 6.1 7.6 4.3 3.7 2.8 10.6 100.0 OR : 1.0 3.2 2.4 18.3 8.8 8.6 7.3 8.1 6.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 20.9 100.0 WA : 1.2 4.3 3.5 23.1 9.6 9.7 8.7 6.8 5.7 5.0 4.1 3.7 14.6 100.0 WI : 3.6 8.1 7.0 32.9 11.9 9.0 7.7 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.5 1.4 3.1 100.0 : Pct : 2003 : : ID 2/ : 2.2 8.6 6.2 28.8 9.7 8.8 6.5 5.9 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.4 8.9 100.0 MN : 1.6 6.4 4.9 28.4 11.810.7 9.1 7.1 5.7 3.7 3.4 1.7 5.5 100.0 ND : 1.1 6.3 3.8 23.5 11.110.9 8.5 7.7 6.0 4.8 4.3 2.4 9.6 100.0 OR : 1.7 4.7 3.6 22.9 9.9 9.2 8.0 5.9 6.1 5.0 4.1 3.3 15.6 100.0 WA : 1.0 3.9 3.8 21.7 8.5 8.5 8.4 7.7 5.8 5.6 4.6 3.7 16.8 100.0 WI : 3.0 3.4 4.5 30.9 11.4 9.9 8.3 7.0 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.5 7.7 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Russets only. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2000-2002 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 CO : : : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 ID : : : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 ME : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 MI : : : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 MN : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 9 12 8 6 NY : : : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 ND : : : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 OR : : : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 PA : : : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 WA : : : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 WI : : : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of December 1 Production and Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 267 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.2 percent or approximately 11.2 million cwt. Also shown is the 10-year (1993-2002) record of the differences between the December 1 production and stocks estimates and the final estimates. Using stocks again as an example, changes between the December 1 estimate and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 4.0 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the December 1 stocks estimates have been below the final estimate 7 out of 10 years. Production estimates have been below the final estimate 6 years and above 4 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : Ten Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% Confidence : : Number Estimate : : Level : Quantity : of Years :Percent:----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Below : Above : :Percent:Quantity : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.4 4.2 11.22 4.04 0.11 9.20 7 3 Production : 1.7 2.9 11.94 4.78 0.40 11.30 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1993-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 240,370 96.4 249,410 1994 : 264,090 96.6 273,290 1995 : 252,030 98.2 256,710 1996 : 291,650 98.8 295,100 1997 : 274,250 98.4 278,830 1998 : 281,020 100.0 280,910 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 100.2 264,585 2003 : 267,160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- December Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato storage States held 267 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 2003, up 1 percent from last year and 3 percent above 2001. Storage accounted for 66 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Stocks by type were 4 percent red, 12 percent round white, 3 percent long white (Shepody), and 81 percent russet, with more reds and round whites and fewer russets than a year ago. Disappearance of 137 million cwt from the start of harvest to December 1, is down 4 percent from the same period last year but 7 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 14.7 million cwt, is down 5 percent from last year but unchanged from two years ago. Processors used 70.7 million cwt of 2003 crop potatoes so far this season, down 8 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. Idaho and Malheur processing decreased 14 percent while Washington and the rest of Oregon processed 4 percent less 2003 crop potatoes than a year ago. Dehydrators used 14.3 million cwt to date, down 9 percent from last year. Western States held 179 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, down 4 percent from last year but up 1 percent from two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are down 7 percent from last year and Colorado's stocks are down 13 percent. California's stocks decreased 18 percent from last year but Oregon's stocks increased by 3 percent. Washington's sheds stored 2 percent more than last year and Montana's stocks are up 3 percent. Central States accounted for 69.8 million cwt of potato stocks this December, up 13 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. North Dakota's stocks gained 21 percent, Ohio jumped 206 percent, Michigan went up 6 percent and Wisconsin increased 3 percent from last year's level. Minnesota's stocks are 17 percent above last year and Nebraska's storages hold 22 percent more than in 2002. Eastern States stored 18.7 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, up 14 percent from both of the last two years. Maine's stocks were up 7 percent, New York's gained 25 percent, and Pennsylvania stocks increased 57 percent. Fall Potato Production Down less than 1 Percent from November Production of fall potatoes for 2003 is forecast at 412 million cwt, down less than 1 percent from the November forecast and 1 percent below last year. Area harvested, at 1.09 million acres, is down 2 percent from last year but 2 percent above two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 377 cwt per acre, 1 cwt below last month but 4 cwt above last year. Production estimates are generally higher this year in the Central and Eastern States but lower in the West. Western States production is forecast at 273 million cwt, down 6 percent from last year but 3 percent above 2001. Acreage harvested, at 660,300 acres, decreased 4 percent from last year. The average yield of 414 cwt per acre is down 7 cwt. Production decreased in 4 of the 9 Western States. California's yield is down due to hot weather and problems with seed quality. Colorado's production fell 15 percent as farmers reduced planted acreage to conserve underground water supplies following drought conditions during the past two years. Idaho's production decreased 8 percent from last year due to above normal summer temperatures which adversely affected tuber development. In Oregon, dry conditions during June and July reduced yield and tuber sizes. Utah has the largest percentage production increase, up 37 percent from last year. Production in Nevada and Montana increased 25 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Washington's production is 1 percent above last year, while New Mexico's production remains unchanged. Central States production is forecast at 110 million cwt, up 13 percent from last year and 8 percent above 2001. Harvested area, estimated at 327,500 acres, is up 4 percent, while the average yield of 337 cwt per acre is up 27 cwt from a year ago. Production is above last year for all Central States except Indiana, where heavy rains during July caused ponding and flooding in many fields. Hot and dry weather in August contributed to a lower quality crop. Production increases range from 3 percent in South Dakota to 43 percent in Ohio. Minnesota is up 19 percent, North Dakota increased 15 percent, Wisconsin rose 9 percent, Michigan went up 8 percent, and Nebraska increased 12 percent. Eastern States production is forecast at 28.4 million cwt, up 9 percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 104,000 acres, virtually unchanged from last year. The average yield rose to 273 cwt per acre, 22 cwt above last season. Production increases occurred in 4 of the 5 Eastern States. Pennsylvania holds the largest increase, 51 percent higher, due to drought conditions in 2002 which made yields lower than usual. Rhode Island production is up 27 percent, New York rose 18 percent, and Maine increased less than 1 percent. Massachusetts shows a decrease of 6 percent from last year's production. Arvin Budge, NASS potato statistician for over 20 years, passed away on July 18, 2003. The tribute below was written by one of his colleagues. A Tribute to Arvin Budge As Crops Branch prepares this issue of Potato Stocks in December We take the opportunity to give thanks, show appreciation, and remember, For as another holiday season is about to pass us by We pay tribute to a dedicated colleague we lost this past July, Though our colleague was as committed to his job as any employee can be He was highly recognized for the sincere devotion he felt towards his family, He spoke with pride as he told tales of refereeing basketball hoops As well as his adventures of camping and canoeing with his Boy Scout troops, His knowledge of the subject matter was obvious, anyone could see For Arvin was well known and respected throughout the potato industry, From his determination and strength he worked the very last day of his life And he continues to be missed by his children, friends, and Nola his wife, His passing was unexpected as he was suddenly called home NASS has lost a valuable commodity in this statistician alone. 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