Pot 1-2 (1-04) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 15, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent The 15 major potato States held 234 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 58 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Stocks by type show more round whites and fewer russets than a year ago. Disappearance of 170 million cwt of potatoes is down 3 percent from last year but 5 percent above 2001 movement. Shrink and loss, at 17.4 million cwt so far this season, is down 4 percent from last year but 1 percent above the same date in 2001. Processors in the 9 major States used 86.8 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 6 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 18.4 million cwt of the total processing, down 6 percent from last year. December 1, 2003, stocks were revised up slightly, with changes in Colorado, Nebraska, and New York. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1994-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,821 264,585 231,690 199,320 165,310 125,870 82,940 45,980 20032/: 403,946 267,860 233,880 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ December 1, 2003 stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 30,730 : ME 2/ : 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 3/ : 1,590 2,095 : WA & OR-Oth : 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 3/ : 32,670 38,520 : Oth Sts 4/ : 2001 : 13,170 14,925 19,000 22,115 24,655 27,815 30,460 37,740 2002 : 12,190 14,865 17,865 20,740 23,580 26,000 29,075 36,705 2003 : 12,570 15,445 : Total : 2001 : 65,405 80,005 96,270 114,585 131,620 148,100 166,575 195,505 2002 : 76,480 91,930 106,600 125,165 143,035 159,365 177,740 209,040 2003 3/ : 71,140 86,790 : Dehydrated 5/: 2001 6/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,670 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,910 36,105 40,455 48,943 2003 : 14,250 18,405 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ December 1, 2003 processing revised. 4/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002 and 2003. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 6/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2002 : Crop of 2003 :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 2003 : Prod : : 2003 : 2004 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- Percent : CA : 4,264 2,900 68 3,444 2,700 2,300 67 CO 2/ : 27,885 18,100 65 23,652 17,700 15,500 66 ID : 133,385 82,500 62 123,180 86,000 76,500 62 ME : 16,960 11,200 66 17,030 13,500 12,100 71 MI : 13,878 6,500 47 15,015 8,400 6,500 43 MN : 18,700 10,500 56 22,330 14,000 12,400 56 MT : 3,224 3,000 93 3,339 3,200 3,100 93 NE 2/ : 8,611 4,550 53 9,860 7,000 5,800 59 NY 2/ : 5,500 1,800 33 6,510 3,500 2,800 43 ND : 23,460 14,000 60 27,440 19,400 17,300 63 OH : 903 40 4 1,290 260 180 14 OR : 24,936 15,000 60 20,991 18,000 15,800 75 PA : 2,590 1,100 42 3,915 2,200 1,600 41 WA : 92,400 43,500 47 93,150 51,000 44,000 47 WI : 31,125 17,000 55 32,800 21,000 18,000 55 : 15 States 2/: 407,821 231,690 57 403,946 267,860 233,880 58 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2003 totaled 28.3 million cwt. 2/ December 1, 2003 stocks revised. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1998-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 28,639 2002 : 414,317 379,491 91.6 34,826 8.4 28,299 2003 : 411,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2000: 3,741 2,100 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 1,100 223 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,264 2,900 198 16 400 3,848 : 2003: 3,444 2,300 CO : : : 2000: 27,972 17,700 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 13,300 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 18,100 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003: 23,652 15,500 ID : : : 2000: 152,320 101,000 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 78,000 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 82,500 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003: 123,180 76,500 ME : : : 2000: 17,920 12,500 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 10,800 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 11,200 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003: 17,030 12,100 MI : : : 2000: 14,963 6,900 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 6,200 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 6,500 1,123 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003: 15,015 6,500 MN : : : 2000: 21,240 13,000 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 10,800 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 10,500 1,098 130 1,400 17,170 : 2003: 22,330 12,400 MT : : : 2000: 3,503 3,250 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 2,780 263 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 3,000 254 145 142 2,937 : 2003: 3,339 3,100 NE : : : 2000: 10,127 6,650 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 4,050 570 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 4,550 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003: 9,860 5,800 NY : : : 2000: 5,964 1,900 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 1,500 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 1,800 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003: 6,510 2,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production : Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2000: 26,950 16,200 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 16,900 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 14,000 2,242 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003: 27,440 17,300 OH : : : 2000: 1,134 170 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 150 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 903 40 89 2 12 889 : 2003: 1,290 180 OR : : : 2000: 30,683 23,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 15,500 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 15,000 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003: 20,991 15,800 PA : : : 2000: 3,510 1,500 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 1,400 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 1,100 276 38 78 2,474 : 2003: 3,915 1,600 WA : : : 2000: 105,000 52,000 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 46,000 3,960 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 92,400 43,500 3,960 300 6,500 85,600 : 2003: 93,150 44,000 WI : : : 2000: 33,800 17,400 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 16,200 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 17,000 1,848 265 1,775 29,085 : 2003: 32,800 18,000 15 Sts : : : 2000: 458,827 275,270 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 224,680 24,726 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 407,821 231,690 24,238 5,276 28,990 373,555 : 2003: 403,946 233,880 Fall Sts : : : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,143 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 414,317 24,681 5,401 29,425 379,491 : 2003: 411,386 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, December 1, 2002 - January 1, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :----------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites State :----------------------------------------------- : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan :2002 :2003 :2003 :2004 :2002 :2003 :2003 :2004 ---------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 4 5 5 1 1 2 2 ID : 1 1 1 1 ME : 4 4 4 4 47 47 46 47 MI : 1 1 1 88 96 86 88 MN : 12 11 14 12 7 6 4 5 NY : 5 5 5 5 90 90 90 90 ND 1/ : 15 13 14 13 17 16 25 25 OR : 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 PA : 3 3 4 4 97 97 96 96 WA : 1 1 1 1 1 1 WI 2/ : 4 3 7 3 32 28 29 34 : 11 St Avg : 3 3 4 3 11 10 12 12 ---------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :----------------------------------------------- : Long Whites : Russets State :----------------------------------------------- : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan :2002 :2003 :2003 :2004 :2002 :2003 :2003 :2004 ---------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 95 95 93 93 ID : 4 4 3 3 95 95 96 96 ME : 2 1 2 1 47 48 48 48 MI : 11 4 13 11 MN : 1 81 83 81 83 NY : 5 5 5 5 ND 1/ : 6 5 7 7 62 66 54 55 OR : 98 98 98 97 PA : WA : 6 4 6 4 92 95 92 95 WI 2/ : 64 69 64 63 : 11 St Avg : 3 3 3 3 83 84 81 82 ---------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December 2002 and December 2003 revised. 2/ December 2002 revised. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2000-2002 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 CO : : : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 ID : : : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 ME : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 MI : : : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 MN : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 9 12 8 6 NY : : : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 ND : : : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 OR : : : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 PA : : : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 WA : : : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 WI : : : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- January Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 234 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 58 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 12 percent round white, 3 percent long white (Shepody), and 82 percent russet, with more round whites and fewer russets than a year ago. Disappearance of 170 million cwt from the start of harvest to January 1, is down 3 percent from the same period last year but 5 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 17.4 million cwt, is down 4 percent from last year but 1 percent above two years ago. Processors used 86.8 million cwt of 2003 crop potatoes so far this season, down 6 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. December usage of 15.7 million cut is 1 percent above last year and 7 percent above two years ago. Dehydrators used 18.4 million cwt to date, down 6 percent from last year. Western States held 157 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, down 5 percent from last year but up less than 1 percent from two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are down 7 percent from last year, Colorado decreased 14 percent and California lost 21 percent. Washington's sheds stored 1 percent more than last year, Oregon gained 5 percent, and Montana increased 3 percent. Central States accounted for 60.2 million cwt of potato stocks this January, up 14 percent from last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Wisconsin's stocks increased 6 percent from last year's level, North Dakota gained 24 percent, and Minnesota went up 18 percent. Nebraska's stocks are 27 percent more than last year, and Ohio jumped 350 percent. Michigan's storages hold the same amount as last year at this time. Eastern States stored 16.5 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, up 17 percent from last year and 20 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks are up 8 percent, New York's gained 56 percent, and Pennsylvania stocks increased 45 percent. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2000-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.1 20.3 22.2 24.0 25.7 27.2 29.0 2003 1/ : 14.9 17.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December 1, 2003 shrink and loss revised. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 234 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.7 percent or approximately 6.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.7 percent or approximately 11.0 million cwt. The 10-year (1993-2002) record of differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.6 million cwt, ranging from 8.7 million cwt above the final to 9.2 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 years and above 2 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, 1993-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 209,270 96.3 217,300 1994 : 229,350 96.1 238,560 1995 : 218,970 98.0 223,550 1996 : 256,520 98.2 261,320 1997 : 240,850 97.7 246,550 1998 : 246,220 100.0 246,230 1999 : 238,160 99.3 239,910 2000 : 272,960 99.2 275,270 2001 : 233,420 103.9 224,680 2002 : 232,140 100.2 231,690 2003 : 233,880 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 13, 2004. 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