Pot 1-2 (6-05) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 15, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Potato Stocks call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 11 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 51.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2005, up 11 percent from both last year and June 1, 2003. Potatoes in storage account for 13 percent of the 2004 fall storage States' production, 2 percentage points above last year. Disappearance of 352 million cwt of potatoes is down 1 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 31.1 million cwt so far this season, is up 4 percent from last year and 14 percent above the same date in 2003. Processors in the 9 major States have used 173 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 1 percent from a year ago and 4 percent below two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 36.0 million cwt of the total processing, down 8 percent from last year and 11 percent below the same date in 2003. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1995-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,327 271,800 238,220 204,190 168,420 129,620 86,990 51,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 43,640 49,570 56,380 63,770 77,530 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 : ME 2/ : 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 : 1,590 2,085 2,720 3,420 4,095 4,740 5,400 7,270 2004 : 1,555 1,985 2,615 3,155 3,720 4,360 4,930 : WA & OR-Oth : 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 : 32,670 38,520 43,610 51,210 58,500 64,160 72,350 79,800 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 : Other Sts 3/ : 2002 : 12,675 15,530 18,735 21,780 24,810 27,405 30,655 38,700 2003 : 13,835 16,505 19,590 22,685 25,920 29,480 32,845 42,160 2004 : 12,525 15,035 18,005 20,945 24,185 27,545 30,780 : Total : 2002 : 76,965 92,595 107,470 126,205 144,265 160,770 179,320 211,035 2003 : 72,405 87,840 102,180 120,955 138,085 154,760 174,365 206,760 2004 : 70,745 85,990 101,010 119,440 136,045 153,850 172,865 : Dehydrated 4/: 2002 : 15,675 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,915 36,105 40,455 48,940 2003 : 14,250 18,440 22,050 26,090 30,290 34,630 39,070 47,750 2004 : 13,365 17,015 19,995 23,735 27,750 31,410 35,990 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on June 1, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2003 : Crop of 2004 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Jun 1, : of : Prod : Jun 1, : of : : 2004 2/ : Prod : : 2005 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,528 3,876 CO : 23,652 2,600 11 23,148 2,700 12 ID : 123,180 19,500 16 131,970 24,000 18 ME : 17,030 2,300 14 19,220 3,000 16 MI : 15,015 13,650 MN : 22,330 3,500 16 18,920 3,500 18 MT : 3,339 3,551 NE : 9,744 9,288 NY : 6,510 5,184 ND : 27,440 5,000 18 26,765 4,800 18 OH : 1,097 1,080 OR : 20,991 2,900 14 19,775 1,800 9 PA : 3,375 2,640 WA : 93,150 7,000 8 93,810 8,000 9 WI : 32,800 1,500 5 30,450 1,800 6 : Other Sts : 1,720 1,400 : 15 Sts : 403,181 46,020 11 403,327 51,000 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2004 totaled 26.4 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts". NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1999-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,580 2000 : 467,529 420,301 89.9 47,228 10.1 27,137 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,360 2004 : 410,023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, June 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2001-2004 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Jun 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2001 : 1,513 226 3 150 1,360 : 2002 : 4,316 700 208 16 399 3,901 : 2003 : 3,528 169 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,876 CO : : : 2001 : 21,357 1,700 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002 : 27,885 3,800 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003 : 23,652 2,600 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,148 2,700 ID : : : 2001 : 120,200 18,500 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002 : 133,385 21,000 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003 : 123,180 19,500 7,700 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 24,000 ME : : : 2001 : 16,430 1,800 1,355 301 849 15,280 : 2002 : 16,960 2,100 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003 : 17,030 2,300 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,220 3,000 MI : : : 2001 : 13,950 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002 : 13,878 1,099 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003 : 15,015 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 MN : : : 2001 : 18,425 2,600 1,178 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002 : 18,810 2,300 1,080 130 1,400 17,280 : 2003 : 22,330 3,500 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 3,500 MT : : : 2001 : 3,296 263 152 188 2,956 : 2002 : 3,224 257 145 142 2,937 : 2003 : 3,339 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 NE : : : 2001 : 8,400 570 153 720 7,527 : 2002 : 8,611 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003 : 9,744 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 NY : : : 2001 : 5,942 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002 : 5,500 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003 : 6,510 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, June 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2001-2004 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:Jun 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2001 : 26,400 4,000 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002 : 23,460 2,700 2,223 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003 : 27,440 5,000 1,805 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 4,800 OH : : : 2001 : 1,097 95 3 36 1,058 : 2002 : 902 95 2 11 889 : 2003 : 1,097 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 OR : : : 2001 : 20,730 3,000 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002 : 24,936 2,300 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003 : 20,991 2,900 955 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 1,800 PA : : : 2001 : 2,938 238 59 120 2,759 : 2002 : 2,128 238 36 78 2,014 : 2003 : 3,375 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 WA : : : 2001 : 94,400 10,000 3,888 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002 : 92,340 9,000 3,912 300 6,500 85,540 : 2003 : 93,150 7,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 8,000 WI : : : 2001 : 31,955 1,100 1,596 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002 : 30,750 1,300 1,782 265 1,738 28,747 : 2003 : 32,800 1,500 1,650 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 1,800 Other Sts : : : 2001 : 290 : 2002 : 680 : 2003 : 1,720 : 2004 : 1,400 15 Sts : : : 2001 : 387,033 42,990 24,626 4,974 29,324 352,735 : 2002 : 407,085 45,880 24,044 5,274 28,951 372,860 : 2003 : 403,181 46,020 22,897 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,327 51,000 Fall Sts : : : 2001 : 393,631 25,043 5,039 29,780 358,812 : 2002 : 413,581 24,496 5,399 29,386 378,796 : 2003 : 410,588 23,249 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2001-2003 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2001 : 21 6 20 13 20 20 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 CO : : : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 ID : : : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 ME : : : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 MI : : : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 MN : : : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 10 12 8 5 : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 NY : : : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 ND : : : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 OR : : : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 PA : : : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 WA : : : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 WI : : : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- June Potato Stocks Up 11 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 51.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2005, up 11 percent from both last year and June 1, 2003. Potatoes in storage account for 13 percent of the 2004 fall storage States' production, 2 percentage points above last year. Disappearance of 352 million cwt from the start of harvest to June 1, is down 1 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 31.1 million cwt, is up 4 percent from last year and 14 percent above the same date in 2003. Processors have used 173 million cwt of 2004 crop potatoes so far this season, down 1 percent from a year ago and 4 percent below two years ago. May usage, at 19.0 million cwt, is 3 percent below last year but 3 percent above two years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon, total processing increased 3 percent from a year ago, while Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing decreased 1 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 36.0 million cwt of the total processing, down 8 percent from last year and 11 percent below the same date in 2003. Western States held 36.9 million cwt of potatoes in storage on June 1, up 13 percent from last year but virtually unchanged from two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are up 23 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds stored 14 percent more, and Colorado's stocks increased 4 percent from last year. Oregon's potato stocks are down 38 percent. California and Montana's potato stocks combined decreased 29 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 11.1 million cwt of potato stocks on June 1, down 1 percent from last year but 63 percent above two years ago. North Dakota's potato stocks are down 4 percent. Wisconsin's potato sheds stored 20 percent more than last year but Minnesota's stocks are unchanged from last year. Michigan, Nebraska, and Ohio's potato stocks combined decreased 17 percent from last year. Eastern States stored 3.05 million cwt of potatoes on June 1, up 31 percent from last year and 39 percent above two years ago. Maine's potato sheds hold 30 percent more than last year. Pennsylvania and New York's stocks combined increased 67 percent from a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2001-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2001 : 14.8 17.4 19.8 21.8 23.6 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.2 20.5 22.4 24.2 25.8 27.2 29.0 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 16.6 20.0 22.5 24.6 26.8 29.0 31.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of June 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the June 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 6-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 stocks estimate is 8.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 51.0 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.3 percent or approximately 4.2 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.3 percent or approximately 7.3 million cwt. The 6-year (1998-2003) record of differences between the June 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 2.3 million cwt, ranging from 8.5 million cwt above the final to 550,000 cwt below the final. During the 6-year period, the June 1 estimate has been above the final estimate 4 years and below 2 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final June 1 Stocks, United States, 1998-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 51,390 102.2 50,270 1999 : 46,670 98.8 47,220 2000 : 63,160 103.1 61,270 2001 : 51,450 119.7 42,990 2002 : 45,720 99.7 45,880 2003 : 47,410 103.0 46,020 2004 : 51,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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