Pot 1-2 (5-06) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 16, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 17 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 73.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2006, down 17 percent from last year and 14 percent below May 1, 2004, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 20 percent of the 2005 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Disappearance of 300 million cwt of potatoes is down 4 percent from last year for comparable States. Shrink and loss, at 23.2 million cwt so far this season, is down 21 percent from last year for comparable States. Processors in the 9 major States have used 150 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 2 percent from a year ago and 3 percent below 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 30.8 million cwt of the total processing, down 8 percent from last year and 11 percent below the same date in 2004. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1996-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 372,581 251,800 218,900 187,600 153,700 113,900 72,950 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2003-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 43,640 49,570 56,380 63,770 77,530 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,590 28,960 35,570 42,800 50,220 57,120 : ME 2/ : 2003 : 1,590 2,085 2,720 3,420 4,095 4,740 5,400 7,270 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,290 1,805 2,405 3,015 3,740 4,400 : WA & OR-Oth : 2003 : 32,670 38,520 43,610 51,210 58,500 64,160 72,350 79,800 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 : Other Sts 3/ : 2003 : 13,835 16,505 19,590 22,685 25,920 29,480 32,845 42,160 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 4/ : 11,820 15,030 17,980 21,230 24,080 26,990 : Total : 2003 : 72,405 87,840 102,180 120,955 138,085 154,760 174,365 206,760 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 4/ : 66,010 81,690 96,500 115,335 133,360 150,365 : Dehydrated 5/: 2003 : 14,250 18,440 22,050 26,090 30,290 34,630 39,070 47,750 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,805 2005 4/ : 12,180 15,920 19,515 23,210 27,205 30,825 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ April revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2004 : Crop of 2005 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 2005 2/ : Prod : : 2006 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,648 500 14 3,240 400 12 CO : 23,791 6,000 25 22,292 4,300 19 ID : 131,970 38,500 29 116,975 30,000 26 ME : 19,065 5,000 26 15,736 4,600 29 MI : 13,650 900 7 13,920 900 6 MN : 18,920 5,100 27 17,630 2,700 15 MT : 3,551 500 14 3,434 NE : 9,288 8,245 1,200 15 NY : 5,184 5,226 ND : 26,765 7,200 27 20,500 2,800 14 OH 3/ : 1,080 OR : 19,775 3,900 20 22,023 5,000 23 PA 3/ : 2,640 WA : 93,810 15,500 17 95,480 17,000 18 WI : 30,450 3,800 12 27,880 3,700 13 : Other Sts : 1,650 350 : 15 Sts 4/ : 403,587 88,550 22 372,581 72,950 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2005 totaled 24.7 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts". 3/ Stock estimates discontinued for the 2005 crop. 4/ 13 States for the 2005 crop. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.7 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.3 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2000-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2000 : 467,529 420,301 89.9 47,228 10.1 27,137 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,695 2005 : 381,026 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2002-2005 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: May 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2002 : 4,316 1,000 208 16 399 3,901 : 2003 : 3,528 700 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 500 202 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,240 400 CO : : : 2002 : 27,885 5,800 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003 : 23,652 4,300 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 6,000 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,292 4,300 ID : : : 2002 : 133,385 34,500 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003 : 123,180 33,000 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 38,500 7,260 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 116,975 30,000 ME : : : 2002 : 16,960 3,900 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003 : 17,030 4,100 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 5,000 1,188 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,736 4,600 MI : : : 2002 : 13,878 1,000 1,099 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003 : 15,015 1,500 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 900 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,920 900 MN : : : 2002 : 18,810 4,500 1,080 130 1,400 17,280 : 2003 : 22,330 5,500 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 5,100 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 2,700 MT : : : 2002 : 3,224 400 257 145 142 2,937 : 2003 : 3,339 1,000 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 500 264 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,434 NE : : : 2002 : 8,611 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003 : 9,744 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 532 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 1,200 NY : : : 2002 : 5,500 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003 : 6,510 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2002-2005 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:May 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2002 : 23,460 5,500 2,223 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003 : 27,440 8,300 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 7,200 1,755 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 2,800 OH 2/ : : : 2002 : 902 95 2 11 889 : 2003 : 1,097 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 71 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : OR : : : 2002 : 24,936 5,000 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003 : 20,991 5,500 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 3,900 892 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 5,000 PA 2/ : : : 2002 : 2,128 238 36 78 2,014 : 2003 : 3,375 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : WA : : : 2002 : 92,340 16,500 3,912 300 6,500 85,540 : 2003 : 93,150 15,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 15,500 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 17,000 WI : : : 2002 : 30,750 3,600 1,782 265 1,738 28,747 : 2003 : 32,800 4,200 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 3,800 1,420 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 3,700 Other Sts : : : 2002 : 1,340 : 2003 : 1,900 : 2004 : 1,650 : 2005 : 350 15 Sts 3/ : : : 2002 : 407,085 83,040 24,044 5,274 28,951 372,860 : 2003 : 403,181 85,000 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 88,550 21,348 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 372,581 72,950 Fall Sts : : : 2002 : 413,581 24,496 5,399 29,386 378,796 : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,639 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 381,026 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 13 storage States starting in crop year 2005. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2002-2004 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 CO : : : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 ID : : : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 ME : : : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 MI : : : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 MN : : : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 10 12 8 5 : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 NY : : : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 ND : : : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 OR : : : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 PA : : : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 WA : : : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : : US : : : 2002 : 8 10 13 10 7 8 8 9 9 9 6 3 : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- May Potato Stocks Down 17 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 73.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2006, down 17 percent from last year and 14 percent below May 1, 2004, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 20 percent of the 2005 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Disappearance of 300 million cwt from the start of harvest to May 1, is down 4 percent from last year for comparable States. Shrink and loss, at 23.2 million cwt, is down 21 percent from last year for comparable States. Processors have used 150 million cwt of 2005 crop potatoes so far this season, down 2 percent from a year ago and 3 percent below 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon, total processing decreased 2 percent from a year ago and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing dropped 3 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 30.8 million cwt of the total processing, down 8 percent from last year and 11 percent below the same date in 2004. Comparisons by region will not be made in this narrative to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Comparisons for individual States are as follows. Idaho's potato stocks are down 22 percent from last year, while Maine's sheds held 8 percent less than last year, and Colorado's stocks dropped 28 percent from last season. Stocks in Wisconsin decreased 3 percent from 2005. North Dakota's potato stocks dropped 61 percent from last year, while Minnesota's stocks are 47 percent below last year, and California's potato sheds held 20 percent less than in 2005. Montana, Nebraska, and New York's potato stocks combined decreased 18 percent from last year. Michigan potato stocks are unchanged from the same date in 2005. Washington and Oregon are the only States where potato stocks have increased from the same date in 2005, with stocks up 10 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2002-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2002 : 15.5 18.2 20.5 22.4 24.2 25.8 27.2 29.0 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 13.9 16.2 18.1 20.1 21.6 23.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 6.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 73.0 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.5 percent or approximately 4.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.3 percent or approximately 8.2 million cwt. The 10-year (1995-2004) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 2.7 million cwt, ranging from 9.9 million cwt above the final to 5.7 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks, United States, 1995-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 72,210 95.2 75,870 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895 1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 : 111,425 102.1 109,160 2001 : 91,140 112.2 81,200 2002 : 83,180 100.2 83,040 2003 : 84,800 99.8 85,000 2004 : 86,990 98.2 88,550 2005 : 72,950 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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