Pot 1-2 (6-06) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 14, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 23 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 40.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2006, down 23 percent from last year and 13 percent below June 1, 2004, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 11 percent of the 2005 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Potato disappearance, at 333 million cwt, is down 4 percent from last year for comparable States. Season to date shrink and loss, at 24.7 million cwt, is down 23 percent from last year for comparable States. Processors in the 9 major States have used 167 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 3 percent from a year ago and 4 percent below 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 33.8 million cwt of the total processing, down 12 percent from last year and 14 percent below the same date in 2004. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1996-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 372,581 251,800 218,900 187,600 153,700 113,900 72,950 39,960 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2003-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 43,640 49,570 56,380 63,770 77,530 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,590 28,960 35,570 42,800 50,220 57,120 64,240 : ME 2/ : 2003 : 1,590 2,085 2,720 3,420 4,095 4,740 5,400 7,270 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,290 1,805 2,405 3,015 3,740 4,400 5,280 : WA & OR-Oth : 2003 : 32,670 38,520 43,610 51,210 58,500 64,160 72,350 79,800 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 : Other Sts 3/ : 2003 : 13,835 16,505 19,590 22,685 25,920 29,480 32,845 42,160 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 4/ : 11,820 15,030 17,980 21,230 24,080 25,860 28,295 : Total : 2003 : 72,405 87,840 102,180 120,955 138,085 154,760 174,365 206,760 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 4/ : 66,010 81,690 96,500 115,335 133,360 149,235 167,175 : Dehydrated 5/: 2003 : 14,250 18,440 22,050 26,090 30,290 34,630 39,070 47,750 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,805 2005 4/ : 12,180 15,920 19,515 23,210 27,205 29,695 33,750 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ May revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on June 1, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2004 : Crop of 2005 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Jun 1, : of : Prod : Jun 1, : of : : 2005 2/ : Prod : : 2006 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,648 3,240 260 8 CO : 23,791 3,600 15 22,292 2,200 10 ID : 131,970 24,000 18 116,975 17,500 15 ME : 19,065 2,900 15 15,736 2,700 17 MI : 13,650 13,920 MN : 18,920 3,500 18 17,630 2,000 11 MT : 3,551 3,434 NE : 9,288 8,245 NY : 5,184 5,226 ND : 26,765 4,800 18 20,500 1,300 6 OH 3/ : 1,080 OR : 19,775 2,100 11 22,023 2,500 11 PA 3/ : 2,640 WA : 93,810 8,000 9 95,480 9,000 9 WI : 30,450 1,600 5 27,880 1,700 6 : Other Sts : 1,200 800 : 15 Sts 4/ : 403,587 51,700 13 372,581 39,960 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2005 totaled 24.7 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts". 3/ Stock estimates discontinued for the 2005 crop. 4/ 13 States for the 2005 crop. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.7 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.3 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2000-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2000 : 467,529 420,301 89.9 47,228 10.1 27,137 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,695 2005 : 381,026 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, June 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2002-2005 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Jun 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2002 : 4,316 700 208 16 399 3,901 : 2003 : 3,528 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 202 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,240 260 CO : : : 2002 : 27,885 3,800 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003 : 23,652 2,600 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 3,600 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,292 2,200 ID : : : 2002 : 133,385 21,000 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003 : 123,180 19,500 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 24,000 7,260 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 116,975 17,500 ME : : : 2002 : 16,960 2,100 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003 : 17,030 2,300 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 2,900 1,188 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,736 2,700 MI : : : 2002 : 13,878 1,099 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003 : 15,015 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,920 MN : : : 2002 : 18,810 2,300 1,080 130 1,400 17,280 : 2003 : 22,330 3,500 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 3,500 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 2,000 MT : : : 2002 : 3,224 257 145 142 2,937 : 2003 : 3,339 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 264 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,434 NE : : : 2002 : 8,611 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003 : 9,744 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 532 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 NY : : : 2002 : 5,500 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003 : 6,510 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, June 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2002-2005 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:Jun 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2002 : 23,460 2,700 2,223 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003 : 27,440 5,000 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 4,800 1,755 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 1,300 OH 2/ : : : 2002 : 902 95 2 11 889 : 2003 : 1,097 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 71 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : OR : : : 2002 : 24,936 2,300 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003 : 20,991 2,900 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 2,100 892 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 2,500 PA 2/ : : : 2002 : 2,128 238 36 78 2,014 : 2003 : 3,375 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : WA : : : 2002 : 92,340 9,000 3,912 300 6,500 85,540 : 2003 : 93,150 7,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 8,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 9,000 WI : : : 2002 : 30,750 1,300 1,782 265 1,738 28,747 : 2003 : 32,800 1,500 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 1,600 1,420 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 1,700 Other Sts : : : 2002 : 680 : 2003 : 1,720 : 2004 : 1,200 : 2005 : 800 15 Sts 3/ : : : 2002 : 407,085 45,880 24,044 5,274 28,951 372,860 : 2003 : 403,181 46,020 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 51,700 21,348 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 372,581 39,960 Fall Sts : : : 2002 : 413,581 24,496 5,399 29,386 378,796 : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,639 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 381,026 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 13 storage States starting in crop year 2005. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2002-2004 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 CO : : : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 ID : : : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 ME : : : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 MI : : : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 MN : : : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 10 12 8 5 : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 NY : : : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 ND : : : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 OR : : : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 PA : : : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 WA : : : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : : US : : : 2002 : 8 10 13 10 7 8 8 9 9 9 6 3 : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- June Potato Stocks Down 23 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 40.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2006, down 23 percent from last year and 13 percent below June 1, 2004, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 11 percent of the 2005 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Disappearance of 333 million cwt from the start of harvest to June 1, is down 4 percent from last year for comparable States. Shrink and loss, at 24.7 million cwt, is down 23 percent from last year for comparable States. Processors have used 167 million cwt of 2005 crop potatoes so far this season, down 3 percent from a year ago and 4 percent below 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon, total processing decreased 2 percent from a year ago and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing dropped 3 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 33.8 million cwt of the total processing, down 12 percent from last year and 14 percent below the same date in 2004. Comparisons by region will not be made in this narrative to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Comparisons for individual States are as follows. Idaho's potato stocks are down 27 percent from last year, while sheds in Maine held 7 percent less than last year, and Colorado's stocks dropped 39 percent from last season. Stocks in Minnesota decreased 43 percent from 2005 and North Dakota's potato stocks dropped 73 percent from last year. California, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, and New York's potato stocks combined decreased 8 percent from the same date in 2005. Washington's potato stocks are up 13 percent from last season, while Oregon's sheds held 19 percent more than last year, and Wisconsin's stocks increased 6 percent from 2005. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2002-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2002 : 15.5 18.2 20.5 22.4 24.2 25.8 27.2 29.0 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 13.9 16.2 18.1 20.1 21.6 23.2 24.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. Reliability of June 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the June 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 7-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 stocks estimate is 8.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 40.0 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.3 percent or approximately 3.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.4 percent or approximately 5.8 million cwt. The 7-year (1998-2004) record of differences between the June 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 2.0 million cwt, ranging from 8.5 million cwt above the final to 700,000 cwt below the final. During the 7-year period, the June 1 estimate has been above the final estimate 4 years and below 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final June 1 Stocks, United States, 1998-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 51,390 102.2 50,270 1999 : 46,670 98.8 47,220 2000 : 63,160 103.1 61,270 2001 : 51,450 119.7 42,990 2002 : 45,720 99.7 45,880 2003 : 47,410 103.0 46,020 2004 : 51,000 98.6 51,700 2005 : 39,960 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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