Pot 1-2 (12-06) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 252 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2006, down 1 percent from last year and 6 percent below December 1, 2004, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 66 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks have been added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 4.0 million cwt. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon, potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 130 million cwt, is up 8 percent from last year. Season to date shrink and loss, at 14.0 million cwt, is up 10 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States have used 72.3 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 10 percent from a year ago and 2 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 12.9 million cwt of the total processing, up 8 percent from last year but 11 percent below the same date in 2004. Table of Contents Page December Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Monthly Processing, 9 States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Stocks by Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Area, Yield, and Production By Season and State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 By State and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Disposition and December Stocks 2002-2005. . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States . . 12 Shrinkage and Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Potato Objective Yield Survey Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Potato Size and Grade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Farm Marketings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Stocks Comment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Production Comment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, December 1, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2005 : Crop of 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2005 : Prod : : 2006 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,306 1,600 48 3,783 1,800 48 CO : 22,910 17,200 75 22,686 17,200 76 ID : 118,288 85,000 72 121,820 84,000 69 ME : 15,455 12,500 81 18,270 14,700 80 MI : 13,910 7,900 57 14,190 8,200 58 MN : 17,630 13,500 77 20,400 12,000 59 MT : 3,445 3,400 99 3,413 3,400 100 NE : 8,245 5,600 68 8,589 5,800 68 NY : 5,226 2,900 55 5,700 2,800 49 ND : 20,500 14,000 68 25,480 17,300 68 OR : 22,023 19,000 86 18,533 16,000 86 WA : 95,480 52,500 55 89,900 49,000 55 WI : 27,880 18,700 67 29,370 20,100 68 : 13 Sts : 374,298 253,800 68 382,134 252,300 66 : Klamath Basin 2/: 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2006 totaled 25.6 million cwt. 2/ Estimates began in 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1997-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 2/ : 382,134 252,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2004-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 26,130 : ME 2/ : 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 : WA & OR-Oth : 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 : Other Sts 3/ : 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 13,465 : Total : 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 72,330 : Dehydrated 4/: 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,805 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 : 12,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, December 1, 2005-2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 3 11 13 85 84 ID : 3 2 2 2 95 96 ME : 2 3 42 37 3 53 60 MI : 1 1 87 87 12 12 MN : 7 12 6 4 2 87 82 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 13 15 18 17 4 2 65 66 OR : 1 1 1 2 2 2 96 95 WA : 1 2 1 1 5 5 93 92 WI : 4 4 38 14 58 82 : 10 St Avg: 3 4 12 10 2 2 83 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted : Area Harvested Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Winter 1/ : CA : 13.0 14.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 12.0 FL : 5.7 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 : Total : 18.7 20.0 17.7 18.5 19.8 17.5 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 6.2 4.3 3.9 6.2 4.3 3.9 CA : 17.5 15.1 14.9 17.5 15.1 14.9 FL : 24.8 23.6 24.1 24.5 23.2 23.7 Hastings : 18.2 17.3 18.0 18.0 17.0 17.7 Other FL : 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.0 NC : 17.0 15.5 17.5 13.5 15.0 17.0 TX : 11.0 9.5 10.7 10.5 9.1 10.2 : Total : 76.5 68.0 71.1 72.2 66.7 69.7 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt -------- : Winter 1/ : CA : 250 250 260 3,250 3,500 3,120 FL : 285 240 250 1,568 1,392 1,375 : Total : 260 247 257 4,818 4,892 4,495 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 285 275 300 1,767 1,183 1,170 CA : 475 405 420 8,313 6,116 6,258 FL : 313 281 294 7,678 6,527 6,962 Hastings : 320 280 295 5,760 4,760 5,222 Other FL : 295 285 290 1,918 1,767 1,740 NC : 200 190 200 2,700 2,850 3,400 TX : 210 225 280 2,205 2,048 2,856 : Total : 314 281 296 22,663 18,724 20,646 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted : Area Harvested Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Summer 1/ : AL : 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 CA : 7.0 6.2 6.3 7.0 6.2 6.3 CO : 5.8 5.0 4.1 5.7 4.9 4.0 DE : 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.1 IL : 5.0 5.7 6.5 4.8 5.5 6.3 KS : 3.5 5.1 7.0 3.4 5.0 6.6 MD : 4.7 3.5 4.0 4.6 3.4 2.8 MO : 6.9 6.5 7.9 6.2 6.3 7.5 NJ : 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.4 NM 2/ : 1.2 1.0 TX : 10.4 9.4 10.5 9.6 8.7 9.7 VA : 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 4.9 5.6 : Total : 58.4 53.4 59.4 53.9 51.4 54.8 : Fall : CA : 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.8 CO : 65.0 58.2 59.9 64.3 58.0 59.7 ID : 355.0 325.0 330.0 353.0 323.0 328.0 10 SW Co : 25.0 21.0 20.0 25.0 21.0 20.0 Other ID : 330.0 304.0 310.0 328.0 302.0 308.0 IN 3/ : 3.4 3.2 ME : 63.5 57.5 58.5 61.5 56.2 58.0 MA : 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.5 2.4 3.1 MI : 43.0 43.0 43.5 42.0 42.8 43.0 MN : 47.0 46.0 51.0 44.0 43.0 48.0 MT : 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 NE : 22.0 19.5 19.5 21.6 19.4 19.3 NV : 6.7 5.5 6.6 6.7 5.5 6.6 NM 2/ : 4.0 4.7 5.0 4.0 4.2 5.0 NY : 20.0 20.5 20.6 19.2 20.1 19.0 ND : 105.0 92.0 100.0 101.0 82.0 98.0 OH : 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.1 OR : 37.0 37.3 35.0 37.0 37.1 35.0 Malheur : 5.2 3.8 3.5 5.2 3.8 3.5 Other OR : 31.8 33.5 31.5 31.8 33.3 31.5 PA : 12.0 11.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.8 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 WA : 160.0 154.0 156.0 159.0 154.0 155.0 WI : 71.0 68.0 66.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 : Total : 1,039.7 967.7 987.9 1,022.3 949.0 976.4 : US : 1,193.3 1,109.1 1,136.1 1,166.9 1,086.9 1,118.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Summer potatoes combined with fall potatoes in 2005. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Yield : Production Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : Summer 1/ : AL : 175 150 170 228 195 255 CA : 350 355 350 2,450 2,201 2,205 CO : 350 375 370 1,995 1,838 1,480 DE : 260 260 240 806 806 504 IL : 415 380 410 1,992 2,090 2,583 KS : 400 360 320 1,360 1,800 2,112 MD : 260 260 320 1,196 884 896 MO : 310 340 280 1,922 2,142 2,100 NJ : 270 255 270 594 536 648 NM 2/ : 340 340 TX : 440 465 440 4,224 4,046 4,268 VA : 240 210 300 1,200 1,029 1,680 : Total : 340 342 342 18,307 17,567 18,731 : Fall : CA : 480 435 485 3,648 3,306 3,783 CO : 370 395 380 23,791 22,910 22,686 ID : 374 366 371 131,970 118,288 121,820 10 SW Co : 490 470 470 12,250 9,870 9,400 Other ID : 365 359 365 119,720 108,418 112,420 IN 3/ : 350 1,120 ME : 310 275 315 19,065 15,455 18,270 MA : 320 260 260 800 624 806 MI : 325 325 330 13,650 13,910 14,190 MN : 430 410 425 18,920 17,630 20,400 MT : 335 325 325 3,551 3,445 3,413 NE : 430 425 445 9,288 8,245 8,589 NV : 430 425 445 2,881 2,338 2,937 NM 2/ : 430 420 420 1,720 1,764 2,100 NY : 270 260 300 5,184 5,226 5,700 ND : 265 250 260 26,765 20,500 25,480 OH : 300 240 320 1,080 864 992 OR : 534 594 530 19,775 22,023 18,533 Malheur : 470 450 435 2,444 1,710 1,523 Other OR : 545 610 540 17,331 20,313 17,010 PA : 240 250 260 2,640 2,750 2,808 RI : 290 210 250 145 105 125 WA : 590 620 580 93,810 95,480 89,900 WI : 435 410 445 30,450 27,880 29,370 : Total : 401 403 401 410,253 382,743 391,902 : US : 391 390 390 456,041 423,926 435,774 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Summer potatoes combined with fall potatoes in 2005. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 AZ : 6.2 4.3 3.9 6.2 4.3 3.9 CA : 45.1 42.9 41.0 45.1 42.9 41.0 CO : 70.8 63.2 64.0 70.0 62.9 63.7 DE : 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.1 FL : 30.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.0 29.2 ID : 355.0 325.0 330.0 353.0 323.0 328.0 IL : 5.0 5.7 6.5 4.8 5.5 6.3 IN 1/ : 3.4 3.2 KS : 3.5 5.1 7.0 3.4 5.0 6.6 ME : 63.5 57.5 58.5 61.5 56.2 58.0 MD : 4.7 3.5 4.0 4.6 3.4 2.8 MA : 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.5 2.4 3.1 MI : 43.0 43.0 43.5 42.0 42.8 43.0 MN : 47.0 46.0 51.0 44.0 43.0 48.0 MO : 6.9 6.5 7.9 6.2 6.3 7.5 MT : 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 NE : 22.0 19.5 19.5 21.6 19.4 19.3 NV : 6.7 5.5 6.6 6.7 5.5 6.6 NJ : 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.4 NM : 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.2 5.0 NY : 20.0 20.5 20.6 19.2 20.1 19.0 NC : 17.0 15.5 17.5 13.5 15.0 17.0 ND : 105.0 92.0 100.0 101.0 82.0 98.0 OH : 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.1 OR : 37.0 37.3 35.0 37.0 37.1 35.0 PA : 12.0 11.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.8 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TX : 21.4 18.9 21.2 20.1 17.8 19.9 VA : 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 4.9 5.6 WA : 160.0 154.0 156.0 159.0 154.0 155.0 WI : 71.0 68.0 66.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 : US : 1,193.3 1,109.1 1,136.1 1,166.9 1,086.9 1,118.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. Potatoes: Yield and Production by State and United States, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 1/ : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- Cwt ----------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt ---------- : AL : 175 150 170 228 195 255 AZ : 285 275 300 1,767 1,183 1,170 CA : 392 353 375 17,661 15,123 15,366 CO : 368 393 379 25,786 24,748 24,166 DE : 260 260 240 806 806 504 FL : 308 273 286 9,246 7,919 8,337 ID : 374 366 371 131,970 118,288 121,820 IL : 415 380 410 1,992 2,090 2,583 IN 2/ : 350 1,120 KS : 400 360 320 1,360 1,800 2,112 ME : 310 275 315 19,065 15,455 18,270 MD : 260 260 320 1,196 884 896 MA : 320 260 260 800 624 806 MI : 325 325 330 13,650 13,910 14,190 MN : 430 410 425 18,920 17,630 20,400 MO : 310 340 280 1,922 2,142 2,100 MT : 335 325 325 3,551 3,445 3,413 NE : 430 425 445 9,288 8,245 8,589 NV : 430 425 445 2,881 2,338 2,937 NJ : 270 255 270 594 536 648 NM : 412 420 420 2,060 1,764 2,100 NY : 270 260 300 5,184 5,226 5,700 NC : 200 190 200 2,700 2,850 3,400 ND : 265 250 260 26,765 20,500 25,480 OH : 300 240 320 1,080 864 992 OR : 534 594 530 19,775 22,023 18,533 PA : 240 250 260 2,640 2,750 2,808 RI : 290 210 250 145 105 125 TX : 320 342 358 6,429 6,094 7,124 VA : 240 210 300 1,200 1,029 1,680 WA : 590 620 580 93,810 95,480 89,900 WI : 435 410 445 30,450 27,880 29,370 : US : 391 390 390 456,041 423,926 435,774 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Derived 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2003 : 3,528 2,700 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 3,000 213 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,306 1,600 226 331 2,975 : 2006 : 3,783 1,800 CO : : : 2003 : 23,652 17,500 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 18,000 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,910 17,200 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 : 2006 : 22,686 17,200 ID : : : 2003 : 123,180 86,000 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 93,500 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 118,288 85,000 7,260 1,230 7,800 109,258 : 2006 : 121,820 84,000 ME : : : 2003 : 17,030 13,500 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 15,000 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,455 12,500 1,274 242 1,183 14,030 : 2006 : 18,270 14,700 MI : : : 2003 : 15,015 9,200 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 8,000 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,910 7,900 1,056 182 1,728 12,000 : 2006 : 14,190 8,200 MN : : : 2003 : 22,330 14,000 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 13,000 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 13,500 1,061 140 1,600 15,890 : 2006 : 20,400 12,000 MT : : : 2003 : 3,339 3,100 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 3,500 257 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,445 3,400 242 156 210 3,079 : 2006 : 3,413 3,400 NE : : : 2003 : 9,744 6,500 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 6,300 519 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 5,600 515 231 834 7,180 : 2006 : 8,589 5,800 NY : : : 2003 : 6,510 2,700 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 2,300 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 2,900 453 100 491 4,635 : 2006 : 5,700 2,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 2003-2006 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2003 : 27,440 19,400 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 19,600 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 14,000 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 : 2006 : 25,480 17,300 OH 1/ : : : 2003 : 1,097 300 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 200 73 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : : 2006 : OR : : : 2003 : 20,991 18,000 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 17,000 955 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 19,000 837 255 1,392 20,376 : 2006 : 18,533 16,000 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 3,375 1,900 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 1,600 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2003 : 93,150 51,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 50,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 52,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 : 2006 : 89,900 49,000 WI : : : 2003 : 32,800 22,100 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 20,100 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 18,700 1,474 300 1,380 26,200 : 2006 : 29,370 20,100 15 Sts 2/ : : : 2003 : 403,181 267,900 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 271,100 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 374,298 253,800 21,696 4,516 26,409 343,373 : 2006 : 382,134 252,300 Fall Sts : : : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 382,743 22,338 4,545 27,115 351,083 : 2006 : 391,902 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stock estimates discontinued in 2005. 2/ 13 Storage States starting in 2005. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2001-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,628 2006 : 391,902 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2003-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 1/ : 14.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 Fall Storage States. 2006 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 2006. These 7 States account for 83 percent of the fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements. Survey data from the objective yield counts are presented in the following 2 tables and are provided to show information about the crop and trends in production. Potatoes: Harvest Loss by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2005-2006 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types :Year: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Cwt per Acre : : ID :2005: 28 28 :2006: 31 30 : : ME :2005: 9 15 15 14 :2006: 20 23 21 : : MN :2005: 19 10 28 23 :2006: 10 28 24 20 : : ND :2005: 15 17 52 37 :2006: 13 21 38 28 : : OR :2005: 18 27 26 :2006: 18 36 34 : : WA :2005: 22 22 :2006: 15 20 19 : : WI :2005: 15 12 13 :2006: 24 10 13 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for postharvest samples. 2/ Missing data represents insufficient number of samples. Potatoes: Number of Hills by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Reds : Whites : Russets : :------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. :Year: of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : ID :2005: 5 13,665 9 12,740 265 12,502 :2006: 6 13,811 4 12,019 276 12,480 : : ME :2005: 7 13,005 66 12,240 79 9,007 :2006: 5 14,532 70 12,689 64 10,208 : : MN :2005: 44 11,272 8 11,011 94 12,589 :2006: 36 12,331 10 12,158 84 12,498 : : ND :2005: 20 9,540 40 10,516 101 11,938 :2006: 21 11,257 42 10,511 78 11,977 : : OR :2005: 3 15,278 22 13,727 80 13,879 :2006: 21 14,496 95 13,239 : : WA :2005: 5 15,184 14 15,193 167 15,009 :2006: 13 16,358 27 13,801 151 14,409 : : WI :2005: 15 15,501 33 15,319 80 13,119 :2006: 13 15,372 36 14,717 73 12,973 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato fields selected for objective yield samples. Potato Size and Grade Size and grade measurements came from potatoes harvested in the objective yield survey sample plots. Potatoes were harvested from six hills per sample randomly selected in each State using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Potatoes were sent to laboratories for sizing and grading according to accepted U.S. fresh grading standards. The following tables contain percent measurements as they actually occurred. Grading Categories of Potatoes 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : No. 1 : No. 2 or : : and :2 Inch Minimum 2/: Processing Usable : Cull 4/ : Total State : :1 1/2 Inch Minimum 3/: : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Round Red : Potatoes : : MN : 70.7 66.3 20.6 24.5 8.7 9.2 100.0 100.0 : : Round White : Potatoes : : ME 5/ : 83.2 78.1 8.1 9.6 8.7 12.3 100.0 100.0 WI : 75.5 80.5 24.1 19.2 0.4 0.3 100.0 100.0 : : Long : Potatoes: : (Russet : and : Shepody) : : ID 6/ : 74.8 77.0 24.0 21.8 1.2 1.2 100.0 100.0 ME 5/ : 74.8 62.9 15.3 20.3 9.9 16.8 100.0 100.0 MN : 72.2 70.7 22.2 19.9 5.6 9.4 100.0 100.0 ND : 72.1 65.8 19.0 23.1 8.9 11.1 100.0 100.0 OR : 77.7 75.3 21.2 23.7 1.1 1.0 100.0 100.0 WA : 81.7 80.2 17.1 18.0 1.2 1.8 100.0 100.0 WI : 81.3 80.8 18.6 18.3 0.1 0.9 100.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #1, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 3/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 4/ Potatoes not meeting the requirements for US #1 or US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 5/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. 6/ Russets only. Round Potatoes: Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 Inch : State : - : - : - : - : - : - : and : and : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 : over : Total Year :--------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2005 : : Red : Potatoes: : MN : 6.3 5.1 14.4 19.7 52.1 2.1 0.3 100.0 : : White : Potatoes: : ME 2/ : 2.3 2.8 8.7 15.2 61.5 8.5 1.0 100.0 WI : 3.4 2.4 8.9 12.0 63.1 9.9 0.3 100.0 : : 2006 : : Red : Potatoes: : MN : 5.2 3.4 12.8 19.9 57.1 1.2 0.4 100.0 : : White : Potatoes: : ME 2/ : 2.1 10.8 18.5 63.7 4.2 0.7 100.0 WI : 3.0 2.8 8.6 13.4 62.8 8.1 1.3 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Maine Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 in. : : : : : 14 : Crop : - : - : or : : : : : and : Year : 1 7/8 : 2 : 4-6 : 6-8 : 8-10 : 10-12 : 12-14 : Over : Total :---------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : Ounce : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2005 : 4.4 3.9 31.3 18.4 15.7 10.0 5.9 10.4 100.0 : 2006 : 5.5 6.3 32.7 18.6 13.4 8.3 5.5 9.7 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:1 1/2:1 5/8:1 7/8:2 in.: : : : : : : : : 14 : and : - : - : - : or : : : : : : : : :and : Year:1 5/8:1 7/8: 2 : 4-6 : 6 : 7 : 8 : 9 : 10 : 11 : 12 : 13 :Over:Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : Ounce : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2005 : : ID 2/: 1.9 7.2 4.2 25.6 9.2 8.9 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.5 4.0 2.6 11.9 100.0 MN : 1.8 8.0 5.6 29.3 11.7 10.3 8.0 6.4 4.6 4.4 2.9 2.0 5.0 100.0 ND : 1.4 6.7 4.5 25.3 11.2 11.1 8.0 7.7 4.9 4.6 3.8 2.4 8.4 100.0 OR : 2.0 4.8 3.4 23.8 9.0 9.1 8.2 7.4 5.4 4.7 4.3 3.3 14.6 100.0 WA : 0.8 3.4 2.5 22.5 8.6 9.4 7.9 7.3 6.3 5.2 5.1 3.8 17.2 100.0 WI : 1.1 5.9 4.8 27.2 10.0 9.3 8.5 7.0 5.8 4.8 4.1 3.0 8.5 100.0 : : 2006 : : ID 2/: 1.6 6.8 3.6 26.1 9.6 9.0 7.0 6.4 5.3 4.7 3.5 3.1 13.3 100.0 MN : 1.5 6.3 5.4 25.8 10.8 9.5 8.5 6.6 5.3 4.6 3.1 3.3 9.3 100.0 ND : 1.0 6.6 4.8 28.0 10.8 9.1 8.4 6.3 5.2 4.7 3.8 2.3 9.0 100.0 OR : 1.7 5.3 3.1 21.9 8.4 9.8 7.7 6.7 7.1 4.9 3.9 3.6 15.9 100.0 WA : 0.9 4.3 2.5 23.6 9.0 9.6 8.7 7.3 6.2 5.2 4.5 2.7 15.5 100.0 WI : 0.8 5.2 4.5 28.1 11.2 9.1 8.3 7.6 5.3 4.4 4.3 2.7 8.5 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Russets only. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2003-2005 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 CO : : : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 ID : : : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 ME : : : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 MI : : : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 MN : : : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 NY : : : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 ND : : : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 OR : : : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : WA : : : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 WI : : : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 US : : : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm Marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. December Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 252 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2006, down 1 percent from last year and 6 percent below December 1, 2004, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 66 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks have been added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 4.0 million cwt. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon, potato stocks. Disappearance of 130 million cwt from the start of harvest to December 1, is up 8 percent from last year. Shrink and loss, at 14.0 million cwt, is up 10 percent from the pervious year. Processors have used 72.3 million cwt of 2006 crop potatoes so far this season, up 10 percent from a year ago and 2 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon, total processing increased 14 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 29 percent above the same date in 2005, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was up 2 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 12.9 million cwt of the total processing, up 8 percent from last year but 11 percent below the same date in 2004. Western States held 171 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, down 4 percent from last year. Idaho's potato stocks are down 1 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds held 7 percent less than last year, and Oregon's stocks declined 16 percent from last season. Colorado and Montana's December potato stocks were unchanged from 2005. California's potato stocks are up 13 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 63.4 million cwt of potato stocks on December 1, up 6 percent from last year. Wisconsin's potato stocks increased 7 percent from last year, North Dakota's sheds held 24 percent more than the previous year, and Michigan and Nebraska's stocks are both 4 percent above 2005. Minnesota's potato stocks declined 11 percent from the same date in 2005. Eastern States stored 17.5 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, up 14 percent from last year. Maine's potato sheds held 18 percent more than last year, while New York's potato stocks decreased 3 percent from a year ago. Fall Potato Production Up Less than 1 Percent from November Production of fall potatoes for 2006 is forecast at 392 million cwt, up less than 1 percent from last month and 2 percent above last year. Area harvested, at 976,400 acres, is virtually unchanged from November but increased 3 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 401 cwt per acre, up 1 cwt from last month but 2 cwt below the record high set last year. Western States production is forecast at 265 million cwt, virtually unchanged from the November forecast but down 2 percent from last year. Area harvested, at 607,600 acres, increased 1 percent from last year but the average yield of 436 cwt per acre is down 13 cwt from 2005. Idaho's potato production, forecast at 122 million cwt, is 3 percent above last year. Yield is expected to be 371 cwt per acre, 5 cwt above last year. If realized, this would be the second highest yield on record, 3 cwt below the record high set in 2004. Extremely hot weather in late July caused some concern, but crop progress was advanced enough that yields were not substantially affected. Production in Washington is forecast at 89.9 million cwt, 6 percent below last year. If realized, this will be the lowest production since 1997. Colorado's production is expected to decreased 1 percent from 2005 and yields are down 15 cwt per acre. Unusually wet and cool growing conditions along with early hail hampered development, lowering yields and tuber sizes. Oregon's production, at 18.5 million cwt, is 16 percent below last year. Yield is expected to be 530 cwt per acre, 64 cwt below the record high yield set in 2005. In California, production is forecast to be up 14 percent. Good growing conditions resulted in larger tuber size and higher yields. In Montana, production is expected to be down 1 percent but the crop quality is reported to be good. Nevada growers expect a 26 percent increase in production. Growing conditions were good and irrigation water supplies adequate. New Mexico's production is expected to be up 19 percent from last year. This increase is due mainly to more harvested acres. Central States production is forecast at 99.0 million cwt, up 1 percent from the November forecast and 11 percent above last year. Harvested area, estimated at 277,400 acres, is 7 percent above a year ago and the average yield of 357 cwt per acre is 13 cwt above a year ago. Wisconsin growers are expecting production to increase 5 percent from last year. Yield is expected to be 445 cwt per acre, up 35 cwt from last year. If realized, this will be a record high yield. North Dakota's production is expected to be up 24 percent from last year. The average yield, forecast at 260 cwt per acre, is 10 cwt above 2005. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record. Minnesota production is forecast to increase 16 percent from last year. Dryer conditions allowed harvest to progress ahead of last year. Michigan production is expected to increase 2 percent from 2005. Cool wet weather during October delayed harvest but drier weather the first part of November allowed harvest to be completed. The unfavorable weather may lead to some quality issues in storage potatoes. Nebraska's yield is forecast at 445 cwt per acre, 20 cwt above last year. If realized, this will be a record yield. Ohio production is expected to be 15 percent above last year. An 80 cwt per acre increase in yield more than offset a 14 percent decrease in harvested acres. Eastern States production is forecast at 27.7 million cwt, up 1 percent from the November forecast and 15 percent above last year. Area for harvest totaled 91,400 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but up 1 percent from last year. Average yield, at 303 cwt per acre, is 4 cwt above November and up 35 cwt from last season. Maine production is forecast at 18.3 million cwt, 18 percent above 2005. The average yield is expected to be 315 cwt, 40 cwt above the previous year. If realized, this would be a record high. Growers in New York expect the average yield to be 300 cwt per acre, 40 cwt above last year. If realized, this would tie the record high yield set in 2003. Pennsylvania production is forecast at 2 percent above last year. Massachusetts and Rhode Island expect production to increase 29 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Reliability of December 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 252 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or approximately 6.1 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent or approximately 10.3 million cwt. The 20-year (1986-2005) record of differences between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.1 million cwt, ranging from 7.8 million cwt above the final to 14.5 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the December 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 16 years and above 4 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between December 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% Confidence : : Number Estimate : : Level : Quantity : of Years :Percent:----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Below : Above : :Percent:Quantity : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.4 4.1 10.34 4.12 0.11 14.50 16 4 Production : 1.6 2.7 10.58 4.40 0.05 13.46 15 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1996-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 291,650 98.8 295,100 1997 : 274,250 98.4 278,830 1998 : 281,020 100.0 280,910 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 100.3 264,485 2003 : 267,160 99.7 267,900 2004 : 271,600 100.2 271,100 2005 : 253,400 99.8 253,800 2006 : 252,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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