Pot 1-2 (2-07) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 15, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 188 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2007, down 1 percent from last year and 7 percent below February 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 49 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 2.60 million cwt on February 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 194 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year. Season to date shrink and loss, at 18.2 million cwt, is up 8 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States have used 106 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 10 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 21.3 million cwt of the total processing, up 11 percent from last year but 3 percent below the same date in 2005. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1997-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 2/ : 382,283 252,200 220,000 187,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2004-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 26,130 32,810 40,100 : ME 2/ : 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 : WA & OR-Oth : 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 : Other Sts 3/ : 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 4/ : 13,465 16,905 20,450 : Total : 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 4/ : 72,330 89,135 105,650 : Dehydrated 5/: 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,810 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 4/ : 12,860 17,130 21,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ January revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2005 : Crop of 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 2006 : Prod : : 2007 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,306 1,100 33 3,783 1,300 34 CO : 22,910 12,900 56 22,686 13,100 58 ID : 118,288 66,000 56 121,820 64,500 53 ME : 15,455 9,700 63 18,270 11,500 63 MI : 13,910 4,500 32 14,190 5,100 36 MN : 17,630 9,000 51 20,400 9,700 48 MT : 3,445 3,300 96 3,518 3,400 97 NE : 8,245 3,900 47 8,633 3,900 45 NY : 5,226 1,700 33 5,700 1,100 19 ND : 20,500 9,400 46 25,480 12,000 47 OR : 22,023 14,500 66 18,533 11,700 63 WA : 95,480 40,500 42 89,900 36,500 41 WI : 27,880 12,600 45 29,370 14,000 48 : 13 Sts : 374,298 189,100 51 382,283 187,800 49 : Klamath Basin 2/: 2,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2006 totaled 25.6 million cwt. 2/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, February 1, 2006-2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 3 11 13 85 84 ID : 2 2 2 2 96 96 ME : 1 2 42 40 1 1 56 57 MI : 90 90 10 10 MN : 8 11 5 4 2 87 83 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 9 13 14 15 2 2 75 70 OR : 1 1 1 2 2 2 96 95 WA : 1 1 2 2 97 97 WI : 1 1 23 30 76 69 : 10 St Avg : 2 3 9 10 2 2 87 85 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Feb 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2003 : 3,528 1,600 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 1,800 213 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,306 1,100 226 331 2,975 : 2006 : 3,783 1,300 CO : : : 2003 : 23,652 12,600 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 13,700 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,910 12,900 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 : 2006 : 22,686 13,100 ID : : : 2003 : 123,180 67,000 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 75,000 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 118,288 66,000 7,260 1,230 7,800 109,258 : 2006 : 121,820 64,500 ME : : : 2003 : 17,030 10,500 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 11,100 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,455 9,700 1,274 242 1,183 14,030 : 2006 : 18,270 11,500 MI : : : 2003 : 15,015 6,200 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 4,800 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,910 4,500 1,056 182 1,728 12,000 : 2006 : 14,190 5,100 MN : : : 2003 : 22,330 11,100 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 10,200 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 9,000 1,061 140 1,600 15,890 : 2006 : 20,400 9,700 MT : : : 2003 : 3,339 2,900 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 3,350 257 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,445 3,300 242 156 210 3,079 : 2006 : 3,518 3,400 NE : : : 2003 : 9,744 4,600 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 3,900 515 231 834 7,180 : 2006 : 8,633 3,900 NY : : : 2003 : 6,510 1,100 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 1,200 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 1,700 453 100 491 4,635 : 2006 : 5,700 1,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:Feb 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2003 : 27,440 15,000 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 15,300 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 9,400 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 : 2006 : 25,480 12,000 OH 2/ : : : 2003 : 1,097 130 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : : 2006 : OR : : : 2003 : 20,991 13,500 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 11,800 955 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 14,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 : 2006 : 18,533 11,700 PA 2/ : : : 2003 : 3,375 1,100 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 900 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2003 : 93,150 38,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 36,500 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 40,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 : 2006 : 89,900 36,500 WI : : : 2003 : 32,800 14,900 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 13,600 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 12,600 1,474 300 1,380 26,200 : 2006 : 29,370 14,000 Other Sts : : : 2003 : : 2004 : 4,240 : 2005 : : 2006 : 15 Sts 3/ : : : 2003 : 403,181 200,230 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 203,490 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 374,298 189,100 21,696 4,516 26,409 343,373 : 2006 : 382,283 187,800 Fall Sts : : : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 382,743 22,338 4,545 27,115 351,083 : 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 13 storage States starting in crop year 2005. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2001-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,628 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2003-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 1/ : 13.5 16.1 18.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2003-2005 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 CO : : : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 ID : : : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 ME : : : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 MI : : : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 MN : : : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 NY : : : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 ND : : : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 OR : : : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : WA : : : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 WI : : : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : : US : : : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. February Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 188 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2007, down 1 percent from last year and 7 percent below February 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 49 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 2.60 million cwt on February 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 194 million cwt from the start of harvest to February 1, is up 5 percent from last year. Shrink and loss, at 18.2 million cwt, is up 8 percent from the pervious year. Processors have used 106 million cwt of 2006 crop potatoes so far this season, up 10 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing increased 11 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 17 percent above the same date in 2006, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was up 4 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 21.3 million cwt of the total processing, up 11 percent from last year but 3 percent below the same date in 2005. Western States held 131 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, down 6 percent from last year. Idaho's potato stocks are down 2 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds held 10 percent less than last year, and Oregon's stocks declined 19 percent from last season. Colorado potato sheds held 2 percent more stocks than last year, Montana's stocks are up 3 percent from 2006, and California's potato stocks increased 18 percent from last season. Central States accounted for 44.7 million cwt of potato stocks on February 1, up 13 percent from last year. Wisconsin's potato stocks increased 11 percent from last year, North Dakota's sheds held 28 percent more, Minnesota stocks are up 8 percent, and potato stocks in Michigan are 13 percent above last season. Nebraska's potato stocks are unchanged from the same date in 2006. Eastern States stored 12.6 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, up 11 percent from last year. Maine's potato sheds held 19 percent more than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 35 percent from a year ago. Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 188 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.1 percent or approximately 5.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.3 percent or approximately 10.0 million cwt. The 20-year (1986-2005) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.2 million cwt, ranging from 9.7 million cwt above the final to 14.2 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 14 years and above 6 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1996-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 105.0 192,090 2002 : 197,470 99.2 199,020 2003 : 200,530 100.1 200,230 2004 : 204,190 100.3 203,490 2005 : 187,600 99.2 189,100 2006 : 187,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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