Pot 1-2 (5-07) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 15, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 4 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 73.2 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2007, down 4 percent from last year and 17 percent below May 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 19 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and totaled 600,000 cwt on May 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 309 million cwt, is up 4 percent from last year. Season to date shrink and loss, at 23.7 million cwt, is up 8 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States have used 162 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 8 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 34.6 million cwt of the total processing, up 15 percent from last year and 3 percent above the same date in 2005. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1997-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 2/ : 382,283 252,200 220,000 187,800 153,200 113,600 73,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2004-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 26,130 32,810 40,100 47,730 55,380 62,470 : ME 2/ : 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 3/ : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,190 4,820 : WA & OR-Oth : 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,220 : Other Sts 4/ : 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 13,465 16,905 20,450 23,820 27,815 31,165 : Total : 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 3/ : 72,330 89,135 105,650 124,945 144,075 161,675 : Dehydrated 5/: 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,810 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 : 12,860 17,130 21,270 25,550 30,180 34,625 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ April revised. 4/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2005 : Crop of 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 2006 2/ : Prod : : 2007 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,306 400 12 3,783 450 12 CO : 22,910 5,700 25 22,686 5,700 25 ID : 118,288 31,000 26 121,820 27,500 23 ME : 15,455 4,300 28 18,270 5,400 30 MI : 13,910 500 4 14,190 900 6 MN : 17,630 2,700 15 20,400 4,100 20 MT : 3,445 3,518 NE : 8,245 1,200 15 8,633 1,400 16 NY : 5,226 5,700 ND : 20,500 3,200 16 25,480 4,800 19 OR : 22,023 5,000 23 18,533 4,800 26 WA : 95,480 17,500 18 89,900 14,000 16 WI : 27,880 3,900 14 29,370 3,500 12 : Other Sts : 500 650 : 13 Sts : 374,298 75,900 20 382,283 73,200 19 : Klamath Basin 3/: 600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2006 totaled 25.6 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts". 3/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2001-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,628 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: May 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2003 : 3,528 700 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 500 213 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,306 400 226 331 2,975 : 2006 : 3,783 450 CO : : : 2003 : 23,652 4,300 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 6,000 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,910 5,700 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 : 2006 : 22,686 5,700 ID : : : 2003 : 123,180 33,000 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 38,500 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 118,288 31,000 7,260 1,230 7,800 109,258 : 2006 : 121,820 27,500 ME : : : 2003 : 17,030 4,100 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 5,000 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,455 4,300 1,274 242 1,183 14,030 : 2006 : 18,270 5,400 MI : : : 2003 : 15,015 1,500 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 900 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,910 500 1,056 182 1,728 12,000 : 2006 : 14,190 900 MN : : : 2003 : 22,330 5,500 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 5,100 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 2,700 1,061 140 1,600 15,890 : 2006 : 20,400 4,100 MT : : : 2003 : 3,339 1,000 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 500 257 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,445 242 156 210 3,079 : 2006 : 3,518 NE : : : 2003 : 9,744 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 1,200 515 231 834 7,180 : 2006 : 8,633 1,400 NY : : : 2003 : 6,510 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 453 100 491 4,635 : 2006 : 5,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:May 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2003 : 27,440 8,300 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 7,200 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 3,200 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 : 2006 : 25,480 4,800 OH 2/ : : : 2003 : 1,097 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : : 2006 : OR : : : 2003 : 20,991 5,500 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 3,900 955 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 5,000 837 255 1,392 20,376 : 2006 : 18,533 4,800 PA 2/ : : : 2003 : 3,375 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2003 : 93,150 15,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 15,500 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 17,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 : 2006 : 89,900 14,000 WI : : : 2003 : 32,800 4,200 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 3,800 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 3,900 1,474 300 1,380 26,200 : 2006 : 29,370 3,500 Other Sts : : : 2003 : 1,900 : 2004 : 1,650 : 2005 : 500 : 2006 : 650 15 Sts 3/ : : : 2003 : 403,181 85,000 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 88,550 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 374,298 75,900 21,696 4,516 26,409 343,373 : 2006 : 382,283 73,200 Fall Sts : : : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 382,743 22,338 4,545 27,115 351,083 : 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 13 storage States starting in crop year 2005. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2003-2005 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 CO : : : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 ID : : : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 ME : : : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 MI : : : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 MN : : : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 NY : : : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 ND : : : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 OR : : : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : WA : : : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 WI : : : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : : US : : : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. May Potato Stocks Down 4 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 73.2 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2007, down 4 percent from last year and 17 percent below May 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 19 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and totaled 600,000 cwt on May 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 309 million cwt from the start of harvest to May 1, is up 4 percent from last year. Shrink and loss, at 23.7 million cwt, is up 8 percent from the previous year. Processors have used 162 million cwt of 2006 crop potatoes so far this season, up 8 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing increased 8 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 8 percent above the same date in 2006, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was up 2 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 34.6 million cwt of the total processing, up 15 percent from last year and 3 percent above the same date in 2005. Idaho's potato stocks are down 11 percent from last year, while sheds in Washington held 20 percent less than last year, and Oregon's stocks dropped 4 percent from last season. Stocks in Wisconsin decreased 10 percent from 2006. Maine's potato stocks increased 26 percent from last year, North Dakota's sheds held 50 percent more, and stocks in Minnesota are up 52 percent. Potato sheds in Nebraska held 17 percent more than last season, while potato stocks in Michigan increased 80 percent, and California's stocks are up 13 percent from last year. Montana and New York's potato sheds combined held 30 percent more than on the same date in 2006. Colorado's potato stocks are unchanged from last year. Comparisons by region are not made in this narrative to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2003-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 1/ : 13.5 16.1 18.2 20.1 21.9 23.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 6.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 73.2 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.5 percent or approximately 4.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.3 percent or approximately 8.3 million cwt. The 20-year (1986-2005) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.6 million cwt, ranging from 9.9 million cwt above the final to 11.5 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 years and above 5 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks, United States, 1996-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895 1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 : 111,425 102.1 109,160 2001 : 91,140 112.2 81,200 2002 : 83,180 100.2 83,040 2003 : 84,800 99.8 85,000 2004 : 86,990 98.2 88,550 2005 : 72,950 96.1 75,900 2006 : 73,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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