Pot 1-2 (1-08) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 17, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Lance Honig at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 5 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 238 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2008, up 5 percent from last year and 8 percent above January 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage account for 59 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 3.40 million cwt on January 1, 2008, unchanged from last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 163 million cwt, is down slightly from last year but up 6 percent from 2006. Season to date shrink and loss, at 16.0 million cwt, is down 1 percent from the same date in 2007 but 7 percent above 2 years ago. Processors in the 9 major States have used 87.7 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 4 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 16.7 million cwt of the total processing, down 13 percent from last year but 7 percent above the same date in 2006. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1998-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1998 1/ : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,272 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 2/ : 400,085 270,100 237,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ December 1, 2007, stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,260 : ME 2/ : 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,560 2007 3/ : 1,700 2,170 : WA & OR-Oth : 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 28,995 34,675 : Other Sts 4/ : 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,315 2007 3/ : 15,040 17,560 : Total : 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 213,860 2007 3/ : 71,965 87,665 : Dehydrated 5/: 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,630 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 3/ : 12,660 16,680 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ December revised. 4/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, January 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2006 : Crop of 2007 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 2007 : Prod : : 2007 : 2008 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,870 1,500 39 4,223 2,000 1,600 38 CO : 22,686 15,200 67 20,981 15,200 13,200 63 ID : 128,915 80,000 62 131,650 94,000 84,000 64 ME : 17,980 12,800 71 16,530 12,700 11,300 68 MI : 14,190 6,300 44 14,700 9,500 7,400 50 MN : 20,400 11,600 57 20,680 13,500 11,500 56 MT : 3,518 3,300 94 3,696 3,600 3,500 95 NE 2/ : 8,730 4,900 56 8,051 5,300 4,500 56 NY : 5,700 2,200 39 5,216 2,800 1,900 36 ND : 25,480 15,000 59 23,660 14,500 12,500 53 OR : 18,533 13,900 75 20,238 18,000 16,100 80 WA : 89,900 42,500 47 102,300 60,000 54,000 53 WI : 29,370 16,900 58 28,160 19,000 16,000 57 : 13 States 2/ : 389,272 226,100 58 400,085 270,100 237,500 59 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 3,400 4,200 3,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2007 totaled 26.4 million cwt. 2/ December 1, 2007, stocks revised. 3/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, January 1, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows 1/ : Russets State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :2007:2007:2008:2007:2007:2008:2007:2007:2008:2007:2007:2008:2007:2007:2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 4 4 13 3 3 11 11 84 82 82 ID : 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 96 94 94 ME : 2 3 3 39 42 43 1 1 1 2 2 58 52 51 MI : 1 1 90 86 86 1 1 10 12 12 MN : 11 12 12 4 8 5 2 83 80 83 NY : 5 16 16 90 69 69 13 13 5 2 2 ND 2/: 15 14 13 15 14 13 2 4 4 1 1 68 67 69 OR : 1 1 1 2 4 6 2 2 1 1 1 95 92 91 WA : 2 3 3 4 4 3 7 7 1 1 95 85 85 WI : 3 4 2 33 34 33 64 62 65 : 10 St: Avg: 3 4 4 11 11 10 2 3 3 2 2 84 80 81 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in December 2007. 2/ December 2007 Revised. Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2004: 3,648 2,300 213 1 292 3,355 :2005: 3,306 1,300 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,500 210 480 3,390 :2007: 4,223 1,600 CO : : :2004: 23,791 15,800 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 :2005: 22,910 15,000 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 15,200 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 13,200 ID : : :2004: 131,970 84,500 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 :2005: 118,288 75,500 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 80,000 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 131,650 84,000 ME : : :2004: 19,065 12,800 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 :2005: 15,455 11,200 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,980 12,800 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,530 11,300 MI : : :2004: 13,650 6,300 860 194 1,656 11,800 :2005: 13,910 6,200 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 6,300 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 7,400 MN : : :2004: 18,920 11,600 837 100 1,750 17,070 :2005: 17,630 11,100 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 20,400 11,600 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 20,680 11,500 MT : : :2004: 3,551 3,400 257 156 276 3,119 :2005: 3,445 3,300 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,300 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,500 NE : : :2004: 9,288 5,300 519 212 906 8,170 :2005: 8,245 4,700 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 4,900 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 8,051 4,500 NY : : :2004: 5,184 1,600 451 100 513 4,571 :2005: 5,226 2,200 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 2,200 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 1,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2004: 26,765 17,500 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 :2005: 20,500 11,500 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 15,000 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 12,500 OH 1/ : : :2004: 1,080 100 73 6 33 1,041 :2005: :2006: :2007: OR : : :2004: 19,775 14,500 955 241 1,264 18,270 :2005: 22,023 16,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 13,900 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,238 16,100 PA 1/ : : :2004: 2,640 1,100 253 39 216 2,385 :2005: :2006: :2007: WA : : :2004: 93,810 43,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 :2005: 95,480 46,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 42,500 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 102,300 54,000 WI : : :2004: 30,450 16,900 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 :2005: 27,880 15,500 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 16,900 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 16,000 13 States 2/ : : :2004: 403,587 236,700 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 :2005: 374,298 220,500 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,272 226,100 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 400,085 237,500 Fall States : : :2004: 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 :2005: 382,743 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 398,921 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 409,082 Klamath Basin 3/: : :2004: :2005: :2006: 3,400 :2007: 3,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stock estimates discontinued in 2005. 2/ 15 storage States in 2004. 3/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.1 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.9 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2002-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,659 2006 : 398,921 365,863 91.7 33,058 8.3 26,437 2007 : 409,082 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2004-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2004 1/ : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 27.8 2007 : 13.9 16.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 fall storage States. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2004-2006 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 CO : : : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 ID : : : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 ME : : : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 MI : : : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 MN : : : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 NY : : : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 ND : : : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 OR : : : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 PA 1/: : : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : : US : : : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. January Potato Stocks Up 5 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 238 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2008, up 5 percent from last year and 8 percent above January 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage account for 59 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks total 3.40 million cwt on January 1, 2008, unchanged from last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 163 million cwt from the start of harvest to January 1 is down slightly from last year but up 6 percent from 2007. Shrink and loss, at 16.0 million cwt, is down 1 percent from the previous year but 7 percent above the same date in 2006. Processors have used 87.7 million cwt of 2007 crop potatoes so far this season, down 4 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing decreased 2 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 8 percent below the same date in 2007, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was down 6 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 16.7 million cwt of the total processing, down 13 percent from last year but 7 percent above the same date in 2006. Western States held 172 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, up 10 percent from last year and 9 percent above 2006. Idaho's potato stocks are up 5 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds held 27 percent more than last year, and Oregon's stocks increased 16 percent from last season. Montana's potato sheds held 6 percent more stocks than last year and California's potato stocks increased 7 percent from last season. Colorado's potato stocks declined 13 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 51.9 million cwt of potato stocks on January 1, down 5 percent from last year but 6 percent above the same date in 2006. Wisconsin's potato stocks declined 5 percent from last year, North Dakotas's sheds held 17 percent less, and potato stocks in Minnesota are 1 percent below last season. Nebraska's potato stocks decreased 8 percent from the same date in 2007. Michigan's potato sheds held 17 percent more than a year ago. Eastern States stored 13.2 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, down 12 percent from last year and 1 percent below January 1, 2007. Maine's potato sheds held 12 percent less than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 14 percent from a year ago. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20- year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 238 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.7 percent or approximately 6.41 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.6 percent or approximately 10.9 million cwt. The 20-year (1987-2006) record of differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.26 million cwt, ranging from 8.74 million cwt above the final to 14.3 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 16 years and above 4 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, 1997-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 240,850 97.7 246,550 1998 : 246,220 100.0 246,230 1999 : 238,160 99.3 239,910 2000 : 272,960 99.2 275,270 2001 : 233,420 103.9 224,680 2002 : 232,140 100.3 231,490 2003 : 233,880 100.1 233,590 2004 : 238,220 100.6 236,700 2005 : 218,900 99.3 220,500 2006 : 220,000 97.3 226,100 2007 : 237,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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