Pot 1-2 (4-08) a Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-5412, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. ****************************************************************************** * * * Update Alert * * * * Adjusted WA and OR - Oth Apr 1 potatoes for processing on page 2. Stocks * * for both OR and WA corrected on pages 3 and 5. * * * ****************************************************************************** Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent From April 2007 The 13 major potato States held 134 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 1, 2008, up 10 percent from a year ago and 15 percent above April 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 33 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from April 1, 2007. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 1.15 million cwt on April 1, 2008, down 18 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 266 million cwt, was 1 percent below April 1, 2007 but up 3 percent from 2006. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 21.6 million cwt, was down 3 percent from the same date in 2007 but up 7 percent from 2006. Processors in the 9 major States have used 140 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 4 percent from the same period last year but up 5 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 29.3 million cwt of the total processing, down 9 percent from last year but 10 percent above the same period in 2006. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1998-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1998 1/ : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,272 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 : 400,085 270,100 237,500 206,200 171,800 133,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,260 40,220 48,570 55,480 : ME 2/ : 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,560 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,985 : WA & OR-Oth : 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 28,995 34,675 39,700 47,390 53,645 : Other Sts 3/ : 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,315 2007 : 15,040 17,560 20,890 23,955 26,605 : Total : 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 213,860 2007 : 71,965 87,665 103,625 123,355 139,715 : Dehydrated 4/: 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 : 12,660 16,680 20,965 25,185 29,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, April 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2006 : Crop of 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 2007 : Prod : : 2008 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,870 800 21 4,223 600 14 CO : 22,686 9,000 40 20,981 7,500 36 ID : 128,915 46,500 36 131,650 51,000 39 ME : 17,980 7,700 43 16,530 6,200 38 MI : 14,190 1,800 13 14,700 2,900 20 MN : 20,400 6,100 30 20,680 6,400 31 MT : 3,518 2,300 65 3,696 1,900 51 NE : 8,730 2,400 27 8,051 2,100 26 NY : 5,700 500 9 5,216 300 6 ND : 25,480 7,900 31 23,660 6,000 25 OR : 18,533 7,600 41 20,238 9,200 43 WA : 89,900 21,000 23 102,300 32,500 29 WI : 29,370 7,400 25 28,160 7,000 25 : 13 States : 389,272 121,000 31 400,085 133,600 33 : Klamath Basin 2/: 1,400 1,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2007 totaled 26.4 million cwt. 2/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.1 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.9 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2002-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,659 2006 : 398,921 365,863 91.7 33,058 8.3 26,437 2007 : 409,082 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production:Apr 1 1/: For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2004: 3,648 900 213 1 292 3,355 :2005: 3,306 700 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 800 210 480 3,390 :2007: 4,223 600 CO : : :2004: 23,791 9,000 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 :2005: 22,910 8,800 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 9,000 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 7,500 ID : : :2004: 131,970 52,000 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 :2005: 118,288 43,500 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 46,500 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 131,650 51,000 ME : : :2004: 19,065 7,500 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 :2005: 15,455 6,500 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,980 7,700 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,530 6,200 MI : : :2004: 13,650 2,200 860 194 1,656 11,800 :2005: 13,910 1,700 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 1,800 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 2,900 MN : : :2004: 18,920 6,500 837 100 1,750 17,070 :2005: 17,630 4,500 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 20,400 6,100 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 20,680 6,400 MT : : :2004: 3,551 1,900 257 156 276 3,119 :2005: 3,445 1,900 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 2,300 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 1,900 NE : : :2004: 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 :2005: 8,245 2,200 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 2,400 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 8,051 2,100 NY : : :2004: 5,184 300 451 100 513 4,571 :2005: 5,226 500 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 500 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production:Apr 1 1/: For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2004: 26,765 10,300 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 :2005: 20,500 5,300 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 7,900 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 6,000 OH 2/ : : :2004: 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 :2005: :2006: :2007: OR : : :2004: 19,775 6,200 955 241 1,264 18,270 :2005: 22,023 8,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 7,600 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,238 9,200 PA 2/ : : :2004: 2,640 500 253 39 216 2,385 :2005: :2006: :2007: WA : : :2004: 93,810 22,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 :2005: 95,480 25,000 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 21,000 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 102,300 32,500 WI : : :2004: 30,450 7,200 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 :2005: 27,880 6,600 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 7,400 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 7,000 Other Sts : : :2004: 2,400 :2005: :2006: :2007: 13 States 3/ : : :2004: 403,587 128,900 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 :2005: 374,298 115,700 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,272 121,000 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 400,085 133,600 Fall States : : :2004: 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 :2005: 382,743 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 398,921 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 409,082 Klamath Basin 4/: : :2004: :2005: :2006: 1,400 :2007: 1,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 15 storage States in crop year 2004. 4/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2004-2006 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 CO : : : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 ID : : : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 ME : : : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 MI : : : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 MN : : : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 NY : : : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 ND : : : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 OR : : : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 PA 1/: : : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : : US : : : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. April Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent From April 1, 2007 The 13 major potato States held 134 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 1, 2008, up 10 percent from a year ago and 15 percent above April 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 33 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 1.15 million cwt on April 1, 2008, down 18 percent from last year. Klamath Basin stocks include potaotes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1 was at 266 million cwt, 1 percent below last year but up 3 percent from 2006. Shrink and loss, at 21.6 million cwt, was down 3 percent from the same period in 2007 but up 7 percent from 2006. Processors have used 140 million cwt of 2007 crop potatoes so far this season, down 4 percent from last year's season-to-date usage but up 5 percent from 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing decreased 2 percent from a year ago and Maine's total processing was 5 percent below 2007. Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was 5 percent lower than last season. Dehydrating usage accounted for 29.3 million cwt of the total processing, down 9 percent from last year but 10 percent above the same period in 2006. Western States held 102.7 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, up 18 percent from a year ago and 16 percent above 2006. Idaho's potato stocks were up 10 percent from last year; Washington's potato stocks were 55 percent above last year; and Oregon's stocks increased 21 percent from April 1, 2007. California's potato stocks decreased 25 percent from 2007, while Colorado's and Montana's stocks were both down 17 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 24.4 million cwt of all potato stocks on April 1, down 5 percent from a year ago but 20 percent above the same date in 2006. Wisconsin's potato stocks were down 5 percent from last year; North Dakota's stocks were 24 percent below 2007; and potato stocks in Nebraska were down 13 percent from the previous season. Minnesota's stocks increased 5 percent from the same date in 2007 and Michigan's potato stocks were 61 percent higher than a year ago. Eastern States stored 6.50 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, down 21 percent from a year earlier and 7 percent below April 1, 2006. Maines's potato stocks were 19 percent lower than last year and New York's potato stocks decreased 40 percent from a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2004-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2004 1/ : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 27.8 2007 : 13.9 16.0 18.0 19.7 21.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 fall storage States. Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 4.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 130 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.6 percent, or approximately 5.98 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.0 percent, or approximately 10.4 million cwt. The 20-year (1987-2006) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.82 million cwt, ranging from 8.98 million cwt above the final to 12.8 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 years and above 5 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks, United States, 1997-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 129,340 96.4 134,190 1998 : 130,890 99.7 131,220 1999 : 127,570 99.3 128,410 2000 : 154,030 100.3 153,520 2001 : 128,930 107.5 119,950 2002 : 125,030 99.4 125,770 2003 : 126,410 100.2 126,110 2004 : 129,620 100.6 128,900 2005 : 113,900 98.4 115,700 2006 : 113,600 93.9 121,000 2007 : 133,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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