Pot 1-2 (12-08) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 9 Percent From December 2007 The 13 major potato States held 242 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2008, down 9 percent from a year ago and 7 percent below December 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 66 percent of the 2008 fall storage States' production, slightly below December 1, 2007. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 4.00 million cwt on December 1, 2008, down 5 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 123 million cwt, was 6 percent below December 1, 2007 and down 5 percent from December 1, 2006. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 13.0 million cwt, was down 8 percent from the same date in 2007 and down 2 percent from 2006. Processors in the 9 major States have used 71.8 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 2 percent from the same period last year and down 3 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 10.7 million cwt of the total processing, down 16 percent from last year and 26 percent below the same period in 2006. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : : : : : : : : Year : Production : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt : 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,272 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 : 398,465 267,500 234,100 200,500 165,000 127,000 85,460 51,920 2008 : 365,694 242,200 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 15 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2006 :27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 :26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 :22,360 : ME 2/ : 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,635 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,640 2008 : 1,630 : WA & OR-Oth : 2006 :30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 :30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 :32,570 : Other Sts 3/ : 2006 :14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,565 2007 :15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 :15,195 : Total : 2006 :74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 214,185 2007 :73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,870 2008 :71,755 : Dehydrated 4/ : 2006 :14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 :12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,760 2008 :10,745 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, December 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008 :----------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2007 : Prod : : 2008 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,792 2,000 53 3,939 1,900 48 CO : 20,981 15,200 72 21,338 16,400 77 ID : 130,010 92,000 71 114,805 83,000 72 ME : 16,815 12,900 77 14,496 10,800 75 MI : 14,700 8,800 60 13,600 8,000 59 MN : 20,680 13,400 65 20,160 13,000 64 MT : 3,696 3,500 95 3,564 3,500 98 NE : 8,217 5,300 65 8,299 5,300 64 NY : 5,216 2,900 56 5,696 2,600 46 ND : 23,660 14,500 61 22,680 14,800 65 OR : 20,238 18,000 89 18,387 15,900 86 WA : 102,300 59,000 58 93,000 49,500 53 WI : 28,160 20,000 71 25,730 17,500 68 : 13 States : 398,465 267,500 67 365,694 242,200 66 : Klamath Basin 2/ : 4,200 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, December 1, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds :Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 3 3 1 11 11 82 85 ID : 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 94 95 ME : 3 2 42 43 1 2 3 52 52 MI : 1 1 86 83 1 1 12 15 MN : 12 9 8 3 2 80 86 NY : 16 6 69 86 13 7 2 1 ND : 14 15 14 7 4 8 1 1 67 69 OR : 1 1 4 7 2 1 1 1 92 90 WA : 3 3 4 5 7 11 1 1 85 80 WI : 4 5 34 12 62 83 : 10 St Avg : 4 4 11 9 3 3 2 2 80 82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2005: 3,306 1,600 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,800 210 480 3,390 :2007: 3,792 2,000 279 372 3,420 :2008: 3,939 1,900 CO : : :2005: 22,910 17,200 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 17,200 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 15,200 1,482 1,060 2,236 17,685 :2008: 21,338 16,400 ID : : :2005: 118,288 85,000 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 90,000 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 130,010 92,000 6,930 945 8,700 120,365 :2008: 114,805 83,000 ME : : :2005: 15,455 12,500 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,980 14,400 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,815 12,900 1,172 195 800 15,820 :2008: 14,496 10,800 MI : : :2005: 13,910 7,900 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 8,100 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 8,800 1,046 185 1,115 13,400 :2008: 13,600 8,000 MN : : :2005: 17,630 13,500 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 20,400 13,300 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 20,680 13,400 946 118 1,112 19,450 :2008: 20,160 13,000 MT : : :2005: 3,445 3,400 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,300 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,500 273 172 227 3,297 :2008: 3,564 3,500 NE : : :2005: 8,245 5,600 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 5,800 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 8,217 5,300 497 186 716 7,315 :2008: 8,299 5,300 NY : : :2005: 5,226 2,900 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 3,000 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 2,900 432 94 370 4,752 :2008: 5,696 2,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 States and Fall Season, 2005-2008 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2005: 20,500 14,000 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 17,300 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 14,500 1,577 240 2,220 21,200 :2008: 22,680 14,800 OR : : :2005: 22,023 19,000 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 16,000 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,238 18,000 863 193 1,220 18,825 :2008: 18,387 15,900 WA : : :2005: 95,480 52,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 49,000 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 102,300 59,000 3,875 236 6,500 95,564 :2008: 93,000 49,500 WI : : :2005: 27,880 18,700 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 20,100 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 20,000 1,548 250 1,505 26,405 :2008: 25,730 17,500 13 States : : :2005: 374,298 253,800 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,272 259,300 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 398,465 267,500 20,920 3,874 27,093 367,498 :2008: 365,694 242,200 Fall States : : :2005: 382,743 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 398,921 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 407,517 21,547 3,899 27,796 375,823 :2008: 374,360 Klamath Basin 1/: : :2005: :2006: 4,000 :2007: 4,200 :2008: 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.3 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.7 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2003-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,659 2006 : 398,921 365,863 91.7 33,058 8.3 26,437 2007 : 407,517 375,823 92.2 31,694 7.8 24,512 2008 : 374,360 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 13.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2005-2007 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 : 2007 : 6 9 12 11 10 8 9 9 11 11 4 CO : : : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 : 2007 : 5 9 11 10 11 9 10 10 12 7 6 ID : : : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 : 2007 : 3 12 12 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 7 8 ME : : : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 : 2007 : 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 13 10 5 8 MI : : : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 : 2007 : 3 7 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 2 MN : : : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 : 2007 : 1 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 6 6 NY : : : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 : 2007 : 1 5 11 11 13 17 11 7 13 8 3 ND : : : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 : 2007 : 7 30 5 10 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 8 OR : : : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 : 2007 : 12 8 13 6 5 6 7 10 12 9 7 5 WA : : : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2007 : 13 11 25 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 2 WI : : : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : 2007 : 1 5 14 12 10 10 9 11 12 10 5 1 US : : : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 : 2007 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of December 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 242 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent, or approximately 5.81 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent, or approximately 9.93 million cwt. The 20-year (1988-2007) record of differences between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.22 million cwt, ranging from 14.5 million cwt above the final to 110,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the December 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 years and above 5 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1998-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 281,020 100.0 280,910 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 100.3 264,485 2003 : 267,160 99.7 267,900 2004 : 271,600 100.2 271,100 2005 : 253,400 99.8 253,800 2006 : 252,300 97.3 259,300 2007 : 270,000 100.9 267,500 2008 : 242,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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