Pot 1-2 (1-09) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 15, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 9 Percent From January 2008 The 13 major potato States held 213 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2009, down 9 percent from a year ago and 6 percent below January 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 58 percent of the 2008 fall storage States' production, down 1 point from January 1, 2008. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 3.30 million cwt on January 1, 2009, down 3 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 155 million cwt, was 5 percent below both January 1, 2008 and 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 14.8 million cwt, was down 10 percent from the same date in 2008 and 8 percent below 2007. Processors in the 9 major States have used 87.3 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 3 percent from the same period last year and down 4 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 14.6 million cwt of the total processing, down 13 percent from last year and 24 percent below the same period in 2007. Beginning this month, previous month's stocks, shrinkage, and dehydration estimates are open for revisions. Any changes will be indicated with a footnote. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 267,500 234,100 200,500 165,000 127,000 85,460 51,920 2008 2/ : 367,715 243,300 212,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ December 1, 2008 stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,360 28,980 : ME 2/ : 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,635 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,640 2008 3/ : 1,635 2,240 : WA & OR-Oth : 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,570 37,750 : Other Sts 4/ : 2006 : 14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,565 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 : 15,195 18,375 : Total : 2006 : 74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 214,185 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,870 2008 3/ : 71,760 87,345 : Dehydrated 5/: 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,760 2008 : 10,745 14,565 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ December revised. 4/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, January 1, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 2008 : Prod : : 2008 : 2009 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,792 1,600 42 3,939 1,900 1,500 38 CO : 20,981 13,200 63 21,338 16,400 14,500 68 ID : 130,010 82,000 63 114,805 83,000 73,500 64 ME 2/ : 16,668 11,400 68 14,769 11,300 10,000 68 MI 2/ : 14,700 7,000 48 14,875 8,300 6,500 44 MN : 21,560 11,600 54 20,400 13,000 11,300 55 MT 2/ : 3,696 3,400 92 3,465 3,400 3,300 95 NE 2/ : 8,217 4,500 55 8,342 5,500 4,900 59 NY : 5,216 2,100 40 5,696 2,600 1,800 32 ND : 23,660 12,500 53 22,680 14,800 12,500 55 OR 2/ : 20,293 16,100 79 18,676 16,100 14,100 75 WA : 100,800 52,000 52 93,000 49,500 43,800 47 WI : 28,160 16,700 59 25,730 17,500 14,800 58 : 13 States 2/ : 397,753 234,100 59 367,715 243,300 212,500 58 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 3,400 4,000 3,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ December 1, 2008 stocks revised. 3/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, January 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows : Russets State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :2008:2008:2009:2008:2008:2009:2008:2008:2009:2008:2008:2009:2008:2008:2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 3 3 3 1 1 11 11 11 82 85 85 ID : 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 94 95 95 ME : 3 2 2 43 43 41 1 2 3 3 51 52 54 MI : 1 1 1 86 83 87 1 1 1 12 15 11 MN : 12 9 8 5 3 2 2 1 83 86 89 NY 1/: 16 5 4 69 89 92 13 6 4 2 ND : 13 15 14 13 7 7 4 8 8 1 1 1 69 69 70 OR : 1 1 1 6 7 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 91 90 91 WA : 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 11 11 1 1 1 85 80 80 WI : 2 5 4 33 12 15 65 83 81 : 10 St: Avg: 4 4 3 10 9 9 3 3 3 2 2 2 81 82 82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December 2008 Revised. Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2005: 3,306 1,300 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,500 210 480 3,390 :2007: 3,792 1,600 279 372 3,420 :2008: 3,939 1,500 CO : : :2005: 22,910 15,000 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 15,200 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 13,200 1,482 1,060 2,236 17,685 :2008: 21,338 14,500 ID : : :2005: 118,288 75,500 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 80,000 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 130,010 82,000 6,930 945 8,700 120,365 :2008: 114,805 73,500 ME : : :2005: 15,455 11,200 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,385 12,800 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,668 11,400 1,172 195 800 15,820 :2008: 14,769 10,000 MI : : :2005: 13,910 6,200 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 6,300 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 7,000 1,046 185 1,115 13,400 :2008: 14,875 6,500 MN : : :2005: 18,450 11,100 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 21,250 11,600 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 21,560 11,600 946 118 1,112 19,450 :2008: 20,400 11,300 MT : : :2005: 3,445 3,300 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,300 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,400 273 172 227 3,297 :2008: 3,465 3,300 NE : : :2005: 8,245 4,700 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 4,900 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 8,217 4,500 497 186 716 7,315 :2008: 8,342 4,900 NY : : :2005: 5,226 2,200 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 2,200 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 2,100 432 94 370 4,752 :2008: 5,696 1,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2005: 20,500 11,500 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 15,000 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 12,500 1,577 240 2,220 21,200 :2008: 22,680 12,500 OR : : :2005: 22,023 16,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 13,900 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,293 16,100 863 193 1,220 18,825 :2008: 18,676 14,100 WA : : :2005: 95,480 46,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 42,500 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 100,800 52,000 3,875 236 6,500 95,564 :2008: 93,000 43,800 WI : : :2005: 27,880 15,500 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 16,900 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 16,700 1,548 250 1,505 26,405 :2008: 25,730 14,800 13 States : : :2005: 378,732 220,500 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,527 226,100 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 397,753 234,100 20,920 3,874 27,093 367,498 :2008: 367,715 212,500 Fall States : : :2005: 383,563 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 399,176 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 406,800 21,547 3,899 27,796 375,823 :2008: 376,386 Klamath Basin 1/: : :2005: :2006: 3,400 :2007: 3,400 :2008: 3,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.3 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.7 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2003-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2003 : 410,973 371,755 90.5 39,218 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,683 369,781 90.0 40,902 10.0 24,768 2005 : 383,563 351,083 91.5 32,480 8.5 25,659 2006 : 399,176 365,863 91.7 33,313 8.3 26,437 2007 : 406,800 375,823 92.4 30,977 7.6 24,512 2008 : 376,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production revised in "Field Crops, Final Estimates 2002 - 2007" publication released December 31, 2008. Disposition will be revised in "Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates 2003 - 2007" publication, which will be released January 30, 2009. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 1/ : 12.8 14.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ December 1, 2008 shrink and loss revised. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2005-2007 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 : 2007 : 6 9 12 11 10 8 9 9 11 11 4 CO : : : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 : 2007 : 5 9 11 10 11 9 10 10 12 7 6 ID : : : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 : 2007 : 3 12 12 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 7 8 ME : : : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 : 2007 : 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 13 10 5 8 MI : : : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 : 2007 : 3 7 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 2 MN : : : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 : 2007 : 1 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 6 6 NY : : : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 : 2007 : 1 5 11 11 13 17 11 7 13 8 3 ND : : : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 : 2007 : 7 30 5 10 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 8 OR : : : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 : 2007 : 12 8 13 6 5 6 7 10 12 9 7 5 WA : : : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2007 : 13 11 25 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 2 WI : : : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : 2007 : 1 5 14 12 10 10 9 11 12 10 5 1 : : US : : : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 : 2007 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 213 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.7 percent, or approximately 5.74 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.6 percent, or approximately 9.78 million cwt. The 20-year (1988-2007) record of differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.39 million cwt, ranging from 14.3 million cwt above the final to 10,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 years and above 5 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, 1998-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 246,220 100.0 246,230 1999 : 238,160 99.3 239,910 2000 : 272,960 99.2 275,270 2001 : 233,420 103.9 224,680 2002 : 232,140 100.3 231,490 2003 : 233,880 100.1 233,590 2004 : 238,220 100.6 236,700 2005 : 218,900 99.3 220,500 2006 : 220,000 97.3 226,100 2007 : 237,500 101.5 234,100 2008 : 212,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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