Pot 1-2 (2-09) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 13, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent From February 2008 The 13 major potato States held 183 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2009, down 8 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below February 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 50 percent of the 2008 fall storage States' production, unchanged from February 1, 2008. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.80 million cwt on February 1, 2009, up 4 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 185 million cwt, was 7 percent below February 1, 2008 and 6 percent below 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 16.9 million cwt, was down 8 percent from both the same date in 2008 and 2007. Processors in the 9 major States have used 99.2 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 7 percent from the same period last year and down 8 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 18.4 million cwt of the total processing, down 13 percent from last year and 22 percent below the same period in 2007. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 2/ : 367,715 243,300 212,800 183,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ January 1, 2009 stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,360 28,980 35,430 : ME 2/ : 2006 : 1,785 2,390 2,940 3,490 4,215 4,840 5,500 7,675 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,890 : WA & OR-Oth : 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,570 37,750 42,490 : Other Sts 3/ : 2006 : 14,355 17,800 21,415 24,690 28,205 31,560 35,040 43,565 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 4/ : 12,535 15,190 18,360 : Total : 2006 : 74,210 91,320 107,895 127,050 145,760 163,250 182,170 214,225 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 4/ : 69,100 84,160 99,170 : Dehydrated 5/: 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,375 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 6/ : 10,745 14,570 18,410 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ December and January revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. 6/ January revised. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, February 1, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Feb % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Jan 1, : Feb 1, : of : : 2008 : Prod : : 2009 : 2009 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,792 1,400 37 3,939 1,500 1,300 33 CO : 20,981 11,200 53 21,338 14,500 12,500 59 ID : 130,010 71,500 55 114,805 73,500 64,000 56 ME : 16,668 9,700 58 14,769 10,000 8,500 58 MI : 14,700 5,300 36 14,875 6,500 5,000 34 MN 2/ : 21,560 9,900 46 20,400 11,800 10,600 52 MT : 3,696 3,400 92 3,465 3,300 3,200 92 NE 2/ : 8,217 3,700 45 8,342 4,700 4,000 48 NY : 5,216 1,600 31 5,696 1,800 1,200 21 ND : 23,660 10,000 42 22,680 12,500 10,300 45 OR : 20,293 13,900 68 18,676 14,100 12,000 64 WA : 100,800 43,800 43 93,000 43,800 38,600 42 WI : 28,160 13,900 49 25,730 14,800 12,000 47 : 13 States : 397,753 199,300 50 367,715 212,800 183,200 50 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 2,700 3,300 2,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ January 1, 2009 stocks revised. 3/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, February 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows : Russets State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :2008:2009:2009:2008:2009:2009:2008:2009:2009:2008:2009:2009:2008:2009:2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 82.0 85.0 85.0 ID : 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 ME : 2.0 2.0 2.0 40.0 41.0 37.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 56.0 54.0 59.0 MI : 1.0 1.0 1.0 86.0 87.0 85.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 11.0 13.0 MN :10.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 85.0 89.0 90.0 NY :16.0 4.0 4.0 69.0 92.0 93.0 13.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 ND :13.0 14.0 13.0 10.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 8.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 72.0 70.0 73.0 OR : 1.0 1.0 2.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 91.0 91.0 92.0 WA : 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 11.0 11.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 WI : 1.0 4.0 5.0 31.0 15.0 15.0 1.0 67.0 81.0 80.0 : 10 St: Avg: 3.0 3.4 3.4 9.0 9.2 8.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 83.0 82.3 83.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2005: 3,306 1,100 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,300 221 480 3,390 :2007: 3,792 1,400 279 372 3,420 :2008: 3,939 1,300 CO : : :2005: 22,910 12,900 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 13,100 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 11,200 1,482 1,060 2,236 17,685 :2008: 21,338 12,500 ID : : :2005: 118,288 66,000 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 70,000 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 130,010 71,500 6,930 945 8,700 120,365 :2008: 114,805 64,000 ME : : :2005: 15,455 9,700 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,385 10,900 1,228 228 1,227 15,930 :2007: 16,668 9,700 1,183 195 633 15,840 :2008: 14,769 8,500 MI : : :2005: 13,910 4,500 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 4,600 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 5,300 1,046 185 1,815 12,700 :2008: 14,875 5,000 MN : : :2005: 18,450 9,000 1,081 151 1,670 16,629 :2006: 21,250 10,000 1,238 261 1,770 19,219 :2007: 21,560 9,900 946 117 1,165 20,278 :2008: 20,400 10,600 MT : : :2005: 3,445 3,300 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,200 283 187 123 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,400 273 172 227 3,297 :2008: 3,465 3,200 NE : : :2005: 8,245 3,900 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 4,000 533 205 770 7,755 :2007: 8,217 3,700 497 186 716 7,315 :2008: 8,342 4,000 NY : : :2005: 5,226 1,700 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 1,400 437 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 1,600 432 94 370 4,752 :2008: 5,696 1,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2005: 20,500 9,400 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 12,000 1,892 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 10,000 1,577 240 2,220 21,200 :2008: 22,680 10,300 OR : : :2005: 22,023 14,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 11,700 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,293 13,900 863 197 1,220 18,876 :2008: 18,676 12,000 WA : : :2005: 95,480 40,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 36,500 4,160 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 100,800 43,800 3,875 236 6,400 94,164 :2008: 93,000 38,600 WI : : :2005: 27,880 12,600 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 13,500 1,419 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 13,900 1,548 250 1,505 26,405 :2008: 25,730 12,000 13 States : : :2005: 375,118 189,100 21,807 4,527 26,479 344,112 :2006: 389,527 192,200 22,607 4,474 27,641 357,412 :2007: 397,753 199,300 20,931 3,877 27,579 366,297 :2008: 367,715 183,200 Fall States : : :2005: 383,563 22,456 4,556 27,185 351,822 :2006: 399,176 23,289 4,505 28,379 366,292 :2007: 406,800 21,560 3,901 28,282 374,617 :2008: 376,386 Klamath Basin 1/: : :2005: :2006: :2007: 2,700 :2008: 2,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.3 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.7 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2003-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2003 : 410,973 372,107 90.5 38,866 9.5 26,652 2004 : 410,683 370,169 90.1 40,514 9.9 24,744 2005 : 383,563 351,822 91.7 31,741 8.3 25,616 2006 : 399,176 366,292 91.8 32,884 8.2 26,374 2007 : 406,800 374,617 92.1 32,183 7.9 24,476 2008 : 376,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 1/ : 12.8 14.9 16.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ January 1, 2008 shrink and loss revised. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2005-2007 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 : 2007 : 6 9 12 11 10 8 9 9 11 11 4 CO : : : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 : 2007 : 5 9 11 10 11 9 10 10 12 7 6 ID : : : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 : 2007 : 3 12 12 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 7 8 ME : : : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 : 2007 : 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 13 10 5 8 MI : : : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 : 2007 : 3 7 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 2 MN : : : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 : 2007 : 1 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 6 6 NY : : : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 : 2007 : 1 5 11 11 13 17 11 7 13 8 3 ND : : : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 : 2007 : 7 30 5 10 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 8 OR : : : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 : 2007 : 12 8 13 6 5 6 7 10 12 9 7 5 WA : : : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2007 : 13 11 25 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 2 WI : : : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : 2007 : 1 5 14 12 10 10 9 11 12 10 5 1 : : US : : : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 : 2007 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 183 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.2 percent, or approximately 5.86 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent, or approximately 9.89 million cwt. The 20-year (1988-2007) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.51 million cwt, ranging from 14.2 million cwt above the final to 300,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 13 years and above 7 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1998-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 105.0 192,090 2002 : 197,470 99.2 199,020 2003 : 200,530 100.1 200,230 2004 : 204,190 100.3 203,490 2005 : 187,600 99.2 189,100 2006 : 187,800 97.7 192,200 2007 : 206,200 103.5 199,300 2008 : 183,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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