Pot 1-2 (3-09) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 12, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent From March 2008 The 13 major potato States held 151 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2009, down 8 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below March 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 41 percent of the 2008 fall storage States' production, slightly below March 1, 2008. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.00 million cwt on March 1, 2009, down 2 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 217 million cwt, was 8 percent below March 1, 2008 and down 6 percent from 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 18.7 million cwt, was down 7 percent from the same date in 2008 and 8 percent below 2007. Processors in the 9 major States have used 117 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 8 percent from the same period last year and down 8 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 21.5 million cwt of the total processing, down 15 percent from last year and 23 percent below the same period in 2007. Tables that included production and farm disposition, potatoes sold, and farm marketings have been excluded from this publication beginning this month. Information for production, farm disposition, and potatoes sold can be found in the Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates, 2003-2007 that was released on January 30, 2009. Farm marketings can be found in the Potatoes 2007 Summary that was released on September 25, 2008. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, March 1, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Mar % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : Mar 1, : of : : 2008 : Prod : : 2009 : 2009 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,792 1,100 29 3,939 1,300 1,000 25 CO : 20,981 9,500 45 21,338 12,500 10,900 51 ID : 130,010 60,500 47 114,805 64,000 54,000 47 ME : 16,668 8,000 48 14,769 8,500 7,100 48 MI : 14,700 3,700 25 14,875 5,000 3,500 24 MN : 21,560 8,200 38 20,400 10,600 8,700 43 MT : 3,696 3,100 84 3,465 3,200 3,000 87 NE 2/ : 8,217 3,000 37 8,342 4,200 3,500 42 NY : 5,216 1,200 23 5,696 1,200 800 14 ND 2/ : 23,660 8,000 34 22,680 10,400 8,100 36 OR : 20,293 11,600 57 18,676 12,000 9,800 52 WA : 100,800 35,400 35 93,000 38,600 31,400 34 WI : 28,160 10,100 36 25,730 12,000 9,200 36 : 13 States 2/ : 397,753 163,400 41 367,715 183,500 151,000 41 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 2,050 2,800 2,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ February 1, 2009 stocks revised. 3/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 2/ : 367,715 243,300 212,800 183,500 151,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ February 1, 2009 stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,360 28,980 35,430 42,150 : ME 2/ : 2006 : 1,785 2,390 2,940 3,490 4,215 4,840 5,500 7,675 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,890 3,505 : WA & OR-Oth : 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,570 37,750 42,490 49,795 : Other Sts 3/ : 2006 : 14,355 17,800 21,415 24,690 28,205 31,560 35,040 43,565 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 4/ : 12,535 15,190 18,250 21,150 : Total : 2006 : 74,210 91,320 107,895 127,050 145,760 163,250 182,170 214,225 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 4/ : 69,100 84,160 99,060 116,600 : Dehydrated 5/: 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,375 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 4/ : 10,745 14,570 18,405 21,535 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ February 1, 2009 revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 1/ : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ February 1, 2009 shrink and loss revised. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 150 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.7 percent, or approximately 5.56 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.4 percent, or approximately 9.62 million cwt. The 20-year (1988-2007) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.26 million cwt, ranging from 13.1 million cwt above the final to 360,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 12 years and above 8 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, Crop of 1998-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670 2001 : 167,870 105.9 158,590 2002 : 163,900 99.2 165,210 2003 : 166,690 100.2 166,280 2004 : 168,420 100.2 168,020 2005 : 153,700 98.8 155,500 2006 : 153,200 96.1 159,500 2007 : 171,800 105.1 163,400 2008 : 151,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.