Pot 1-2 (4-09) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 9 Percent From April 2008 The 13 major potato States held 115 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 1, 2009, down 9 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below April 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 31 percent of the 2008 fall storage States' production, slightly below April 1, 2008. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 1.45 million cwt on April 1, 2009, up 26 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 253 million cwt, was 7 percent below April 1, 2008 and down 6 percent from 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 20.6 million cwt, was down 7 percent from the same date in 2008 and 8 percent below 2007. Processors in the 9 major States have used 134 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 7 percent from the same period last year and down 8 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 24.9 million cwt of the total processing, down 15 percent from last year and 23 percent below the same period in 2007. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, April 1, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Apr % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : Apr 1, : of : : 2008 : Prod : : 2009 : 2009 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,792 600 16 3,939 1,000 800 20 CO : 20,981 7,500 36 21,338 10,900 8,700 41 ID : 130,010 49,000 38 114,805 54,000 42,500 37 ME : 16,668 6,400 38 14,769 7,100 5,600 38 MI : 14,700 2,100 14 14,875 3,500 1,900 13 MN : 21,560 6,200 29 20,400 8,700 6,500 32 MT : 3,696 2,100 57 3,465 3,000 2,100 61 NE : 8,217 2,000 24 8,342 3,500 2,300 28 NY : 5,216 500 10 5,696 800 450 8 ND : 23,660 6,000 25 22,680 8,100 6,100 27 OR : 20,293 9,200 45 18,676 9,800 7,400 40 WA : 100,800 27,500 27 93,000 31,400 23,700 25 WI 2/ : 28,160 6,400 23 25,730 9,600 6,500 25 : 13 States 2/ : 397,753 125,500 32 367,715 151,400 114,550 31 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 1,150 2,000 1,450 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ March 1, 2009 stocks revised. 3/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 2/ : 367,715 243,300 212,800 183,500 151,400 114,550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ March 1, 2009 stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,360 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 : ME 2/ : 2006 : 1,785 2,390 2,940 3,490 4,215 4,840 5,500 7,675 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,890 3,505 4,000 : WA & OR-Oth : 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,570 37,750 42,490 49,795 56,350 : Other Sts 3/ : 2006 : 14,355 17,800 21,415 24,690 28,205 31,560 35,040 43,565 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 : 12,535 15,190 18,250 21,150 24,140 : Total : 2006 : 74,210 91,320 107,895 127,050 145,760 163,250 182,170 214,225 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 : 69,100 84,160 99,060 116,600 133,520 : Dehydrated 4/: 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,375 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 : 10,745 14,570 18,405 21,535 24,945 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 4.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 115 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.9 percent, or approximately 5.61 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.4 percent, or approximately 9.62 million cwt. The 20-year (1988-2007) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.22 million cwt, ranging from 12.8 million cwt above the final to 300,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 14 years and above 6 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks, United States, Crop of 1998-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 130,890 99.7 131,220 1999 : 127,570 99.3 128,410 2000 : 154,030 100.3 153,520 2001 : 128,930 107.5 119,950 2002 : 125,030 99.4 125,770 2003 : 126,410 100.2 126,110 2004 : 129,620 100.6 128,900 2005 : 113,900 98.4 115,700 2006 : 113,600 94.0 120,900 2007 : 133,600 106.5 125,500 2008 : 114,550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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