Pot 1-2 (6-09) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 12, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Suzanne Avilla at (202) 720-5412, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 11 Percent From June 2008 The 13 major potato States held 44.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2009, down 11 percent from a year ago but 1 percent above June 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 12 percent of the 2008 fall storage States' production, slightly below June 1, 2008. Potato disappearance, at 323 million cwt, was 7 percent below June 1, 2008 and down 6 percent from 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 23.8 million cwt, was down 6 percent from the same date in 2008 and 7 percent below 2007. Processors in the 9 major States have used 169 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 7 percent from both the same period last year and 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 31.9 million cwt of the total processing, down 16 percent from last year and 22 percent below the same period in 2007. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, June 1, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2007 : Crop of 2008 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jun % : Prod : Jun 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : Jun 1, : of : :2008 2/ : Prod : : 2009 :2009 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,792 300 8 3,939 500 400 10 CO : 20,981 2,500 12 21,338 5,300 3,400 16 ID : 130,010 23,000 18 114,805 30,000 18,500 16 ME : 16,668 2,500 15 14,769 3,700 2,200 15 MI : 14,700 14,875 700 100 1 MN 3/ : 21,560 2,400 11 20,400 4,500 3,400 17 MT : 3,696 3,465 40 1 NE : 8,217 8,342 1,100 NY : 5,216 5,696 ND 3/ : 23,660 2,800 12 22,680 4,000 2,000 9 OR : 20,293 4,200 21 18,676 5,300 3,800 20 WA : 100,800 11,000 11 93,000 16,500 8,300 9 WI : 28,160 1,000 4 25,730 3,600 2,000 8 : Other States : 720 800 630 : 13 States 3/ : 397,753 50,420 13 367,715 76,000 44,770 12 : Klamath Basin 4/ : 750 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other States". 3/ May 1, 2009 stocks revised. 4/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. 5/ Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 2/ : 367,715 243,300 212,800 183,500 151,400 114,450 76,000 44,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ May 1, 2009 stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,360 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 : ME 2/ : 2006 : 1,785 2,390 2,940 3,490 4,215 4,840 5,500 7,675 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,890 3,505 4,000 4,795 5,540 : WA & OR-Oth : 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,570 37,750 42,490 49,795 56,350 62,620 70,625 : Other Sts 3/ : 2006 : 14,355 17,800 21,415 24,690 28,205 31,560 35,040 43,565 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 4/ : 12,535 15,190 18,250 21,150 24,140 26,635 29,595 : Total : 2006 : 74,210 91,320 107,895 127,050 145,760 163,250 182,170 214,225 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 4/ : 69,100 84,160 99,060 116,600 133,520 149,620 168,700 : Dehydrated 5/: 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,375 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 4/ : 10,745 14,570 18,405 21,535 24,945 28,265 31,940 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ May 1, 2009 revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Reliability of June 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the June 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 stocks estimate is 9.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 44.8 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 9.2 percent, or approximately 4.12 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 16.8 percent, or approximately 7.52 million cwt. Changes between the June 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 2.95 million cwt, ranging from 160,000 cwt to 8.46 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the June 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final June 1 Stocks, United States, Crop of 1998-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 51,390 102.2 50,270 1999 : 46,670 98.8 47,220 2000 : 63,160 103.1 61,270 2001 : 51,450 119.7 42,990 2002 : 45,720 99.7 45,880 2003 : 47,410 103.0 46,020 2004 : 51,000 98.6 51,700 2005 : 39,960 96.2 41,560 2006 : 38,830 87.3 44,460 2007 : 58,390 115.8 50,420 2008 : 44,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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