Pot 1-2 (1-10)a Potato Stocks Washington, D.C. Released January 15, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Tierra Mobley at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. ************************************************************************** Update Alert The percent of production for the 2008 crop was corrected on page 1. ************************************************************************** Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent From January 2009 The 13 major potato States held 235 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2010, up 10 percent from a year ago and 1 percent above January 1, 2008. Potatoes in storage accounted for 61 percent of the 2009 fall storage States' production, unchanged from January 1, 2009. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 3.60 million cwt on January 1, 2010, up 9 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 149 million cwt, was 5 percent below January 1, 2009 and down 10 percent from 2008. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 16.5 million cwt, was up 11 percent from the same date in 2009 and 1 percent above 2008. Processors in the 9 major States have used 75.7 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 10 percent from the same period last year and down 16 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 14.1 million cwt of the total processing, down 3 percent from last year and 16 percent below the same period in 2008. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, January 1, 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2008 : Crop of 2009 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 2009 : Prod : : 2009 : 2010 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,948 1,500 38 4,158 2,100 1,700 41 CO 2/ : 21,907 14,700 67 22,080 15,900 13,900 63 ID : 116,475 75,500 65 131,000 96,500 87,000 66 ME : 14,769 10,000 68 15,263 12,000 10,800 71 MI : 14,875 6,600 44 15,660 8,700 7,000 45 MN 2/ : 20,400 11,700 57 20,700 13,700 12,300 59 MT 2/ : 3,465 3,400 98 3,347 3,300 3,200 96 NE 2/ : 8,245 4,700 57 8,756 5,700 4,800 55 NY : 5,696 2,000 35 4,950 2,500 2,000 40 ND : 22,680 12,500 55 19,125 13,000 10,800 56 OR : 18,676 14,100 75 21,460 17,400 15,000 70 WA : 93,000 43,800 47 88,450 54,500 48,900 55 WI 2/ : 25,730 12,700 49 28,980 20,500 18,000 62 : 13 States 2/ : 369,866 213,200 58 383,929 265,800 235,400 61 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 3,300 4,500 3,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. 2/ December 1, 2009 stocks revised. 3/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 2000-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 : 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 2/ : 383,929 265,800 235,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ December 1, 2009 stocks revised. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, January 1, 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows : Russets State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :2009:2009:2010:2009:2009:2010:2009:2009:2010:2009:2009:2010:2009:2009:2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 3 3 1 2 2 11 11 11 85 84 84 ID : 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 95 95 95 ME 1/: 2 3 3 41 38 38 3 4 3 54 55 56 MI : 1 1 2 87 89 88 1 11 10 10 MN : 8 13 11 2 3 4 1 1 1 89 83 84 NY : 4 4 4 92 91 94 4 5 2 ND 1/: 14 15 14 7 9 9 8 6 5 1 1 1 70 69 71 OR : 1 1 1 6 8 7 1 1 1 1 91 90 91 WA : 3 3 3 5 4 4 11 5 5 1 1 1 80 87 87 WI : 4 4 5 15 14 28 1 81 81 67 : 10 St: Avg: 3 4 4 9 10 10 3 1 1 2 2 2 82 83 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December 2009 Revised. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2006-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 : 14.3 16.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2007-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 : 23,110 29,180 : ME 2/ : 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,895 3,515 4,005 4,795 5,540 7,545 2009 : 1,575 2,065 : WA & OR-Oth : 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 : 25,350 31,200 : Other Sts 3/ : 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 : 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 : 10,605 13,295 : Total : 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 : 69,055 84,390 99,285 116,560 133,410 149,515 168,695 203,430 2009 : 60,640 75,740 : Dehydrated 4/: 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 : 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 : 10,945 14,060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 235 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent, or approximately 6.12 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.4 percent, or approximately 10.4 million cwt. Changes between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 4.19 million cwt, ranging from 10 cwt to 14.3 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 times and above 5 times. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, Crop of 1999-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1999 : 238,160 99.3 239,910 2000 : 272,960 99.2 275,270 2001 : 233,420 103.9 224,680 2002 : 232,140 100.3 231,490 2003 : 233,880 100.1 233,590 2004 : 238,220 100.6 236,700 2005 : 218,900 99.3 220,500 2006 : 220,000 97.4 225,800 2007 : 237,500 102.2 232,300 2008 : 212,500 99.7 213,200 2009 : 235,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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