Pot 1-2 (2-10)a Potato Stocks Washington, D.C. Released February 17, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Tierra Mobley at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. *************************************************************************** Update Alert The 13 state total stocks estimate for Feb 1, 2010 was corrected on pages 1, 2, and 4. *************************************************************************** Potato Stocks Up 11 Percent From February 2009 The 13 major potato States held 203 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2010, up 11 percent from a year ago and 2 percent above February 1, 2008. Potatoes in storage accounted for 53 percent of the 2009 fall storage States' production, 3 percentage points above February 1, 2009. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.80 million cwt on February 1, 2010, unchanged from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 181 million cwt, was 3 percent below February 1, 2009 and down 9 percent from 2008. Season-to- date shrink and loss, at 18.7 million cwt, was up 11 percent from the same date in 2009 and 2 percent above 2008. Processors in the 9 major States have used 90.4 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 9 percent from the same period last year and down 15 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 17.1 million cwt of the total processing, down 7 percent from last year and 19 percent below the same period in 2008. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, February 1, 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2008 : Crop of 2009 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Feb % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Jan 1, : Feb 1, : of : : 2009 : Prod : : 2010 :2010 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA 3/ : 3,948 1,300 33 4,158 1,600 1,200 29 CO : 21,907 12,700 58 22,080 13,900 12,200 55 ID : 116,475 66,000 57 131,000 87,000 76,500 58 ME : 14,769 8,500 58 15,263 10,800 9,400 62 MI : 14,875 4,800 32 15,660 7,000 5,200 33 MN : 20,400 10,200 50 20,700 12,300 MT : 3,465 3,400 98 3,347 3,200 3,100 93 NE 3/ : 8,245 4,100 50 8,756 4,900 4,200 48 NY 3/ : 5,696 1,600 28 4,950 1,900 ND : 22,680 10,400 46 19,125 10,800 9,000 47 OR : 18,676 12,000 64 21,460 15,000 12,900 60 WA : 93,000 38,600 42 88,450 48,900 43,300 49 WI : 25,730 10,300 40 28,980 18,000 14,900 51 : Other States : 11,500 : 13 States 3/ : 369,866 183,900 50 383,929 235,300 203,400 53 : Klamath Basin 4/ : 2,800 3,500 2,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2009 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other States". 3/ January 1, 2010 stocks revised. 4/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 2000-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 : 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 2/ : 383,929 265,800 235,300 203,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. 2/ January 1, 2010 stocks revised. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, February 1, 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows : Russets State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :Feb :Jan :Feb :2009:2010:2010:2009:2010:2010:2009:2010:2010:2009:2010:2010:2009:2010:2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 3 3 1 2 2 11 11 11 85 84 84 ID 1/: 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 95 96 96 ME : 2 3 3 37 38 38 2 3 3 59 56 56 MI : 1 2 1 85 88 89 1 13 10 10 MN : 7 11 9 2 4 4 1 1 1 90 84 86 NY : 4 4 3 93 94 96 3 2 1 ND : 13 14 14 6 9 9 7 5 5 1 1 1 73 71 71 OR : 2 1 1 5 7 6 1 1 1 92 91 92 WA : 3 3 3 5 4 4 11 5 5 1 1 1 80 87 87 WI : 5 5 3 15 28 15 80 67 82 : 10 St: Avg: 3 4 3 8 10 8 3 1 1 2 2 2 83 83 86 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ January 1, 2010 revised. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2006-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 : 14.3 16.5 18.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2007-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 : 23,110 29,180 35,170 : ME 2/ : 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,895 3,515 4,005 4,795 5,540 7,545 2009 : 1,575 2,060 2,680 : WA & OR-Oth : 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 : 25,350 31,200 36,490 : Other Sts 3/ : 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 : 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 : 10,605 13,260 16,015 : Total : 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 : 69,055 84,390 99,285 116,560 133,410 149,515 168,695 203,430 2009 : 60,640 75,700 90,355 : Dehydrated 4/: 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 : 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 : 10,945 13,950 17,065 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 203 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent, or approximately 6.10 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent, or approximately 10.6 million cwt. Changes between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 4.22 million cwt, ranging from 300 cwt to 14.2 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 13 times and above 7 times. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, Crop of 1999-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 105.0 192,090 2002 : 197,470 99.2 199,020 2003 : 200,530 100.1 200,230 2004 : 204,190 100.3 203,490 2005 : 187,600 99.2 189,100 2006 : 187,800 97.7 192,200 2007 : 206,200 103.5 199,300 2008 : 183,200 99.6 183,900 2009 : 203,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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