Potato Stocks ISSN: 1949-1565 Released May 14, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Potato Stocks Up 11 Percent From May 2009 The 13 major potato States held 87.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2010, up 11 percent from a year ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 23 percent of the 2009 fall storage States' production, 2 percentage points above May 1, 2009. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 770 thousand cwt on May 1, 2010, up 3 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 297 million cwt, was 2 percent above May 1, 2009. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 26.6 million cwt, was up 19 percent from the same date in 2009. Processors in the 9 major States have used 142 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 5 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for 26.6 million cwt of the total processing, down 6 percent from last year. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: May 1, 2009-2010 [Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2009 totaled 24.5 million cwt] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2008 : Crop of 2009 :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : May stocks : : Stocks : Stocks : May stocks : Production : May 1, :as a percent : Production : April 1, : May 1, :as a percent : : 2009 :of production: : 2010 : 2010 :of production ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 cwt ---- percent ------------ 1,000 cwt ----------- percent : California ......: 3,948 500 13 4,158 *800 600 14 Colorado ........: 21,907 5,900 27 22,080 8,100 4,900 22 Idaho ...........: 116,475 32,500 28 131,000 51,000 36,500 28 Maine ...........: 14,769 3,700 25 15,263 6,000 3,900 26 Michigan ........: 14,875 700 5 15,660 1,200 (D) (D) Minnesota .......: 20,400 4,400 22 20,700 7,300 4,900 24 Montana .........: 3,465 (D) (D) 3,347 2,000 600 18 Nebraska ........: 8,245 1,200 15 8,756 2,200 1,100 13 New York ........: 5,696 (D) (D) 4,950 500 (D) (D) North Dakota ....: 22,680 4,200 19 19,125 5,000 2,800 15 Oregon ..........: 18,676 5,300 28 21,460 8,000 5,300 25 Washington ......: 93,000 16,500 18 88,450 28,300 21,300 24 Wisconsin .......: 25,730 2,200 9 28,980 8,600 4,900 17 : Other States ....: - 1,000 (X) - - 230 (X) : Total ...........: 369,866 78,100 21 383,929 *129,000 87,030 23 : Klamath Basin 1/ : (NA) 750 (NA) (NA) *1,300 770 (NA) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. - Represents zero. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 2000-2009 [For 2000-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : year :Production:December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : 2000 ....: 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 ....: 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 ....: 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 ....: 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 ....: 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 ....: 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 ....: 383,929 265,800 235,300 203,400 169,800 *129,000 87,030 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing, 9 States: 2007-2009 [Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : crop year :December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : Idaho and Oregon, Malheur : 2007 ......................: 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 ......................: 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 ......................: 23,110 29,180 35,170 42,050 *49,200 56,100 : Maine 1/ : 2007 ......................: 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 ......................: 1,635 2,240 2,895 3,515 4,005 4,795 5,540 7,545 2009 ......................: 1,575 2,060 2,680 3,265 3,915 4,575 : Washington and Oregon, Other : 2007 ......................: 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 ......................: 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 ......................: 25,350 31,200 36,490 43,750 50,170 56,700 : Other States 2/ : 2007 ......................: 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 ......................: 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 ......................: 10,605 13,260 16,225 18,920 *21,555 24,155 : Total : 2007 ......................: 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 ......................: 69,055 84,390 99,285 116,560 133,410 149,515 168,695 203,430 2009 ......................: 60,640 75,700 90,565 107,985 *124,840 141,530 : Dehydrated 3/ : 2007 ......................: 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 ......................: 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 ......................: 10,945 13,950 17,065 19,800 *23,075 26,550 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in Wisconsin. 3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2006-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To year :December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : million cwt : 2006 ...: 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 ...: 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 ...: 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 ...: 14.3 16.5 18.8 21.1 24.4 26.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for nearly 98 percent of the United States production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted each month from December through June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin). Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous month are subject to revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the Potatoes Annual Summary. Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 6.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 87.0 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.8 percent, or approximately 5.92 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.8 percent, or approximately 10.3 million cwt. Changes between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 4.01 million cwt, ranging from 140 cwt to 11.5 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 times and above 5 times. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks - United States: 1999-2009 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final year : stocks : final : stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt : 1999 .....: 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 .....: 111,425 102.1 109,160 2001 .....: 91,140 112.2 81,200 2002 .....: 83,180 100.2 83,040 2003 .....: 84,800 99.8 85,000 2004 .....: 86,990 98.2 88,550 2005 .....: 72,950 96.1 75,900 2006 .....: 73,200 92.6 79,050 2007 .....: 92,710 110.4 83,960 2008 .....: 75,400 96.5 78,100 2009 .....: 87,030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .............. (202) 720-4215 Steve Maliszewski - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits............. (202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ......... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................... 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