Potato Stocks ISSN: 1949-1565 Released December 15, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Potato Stocks Down 13 Percent From December 2009 The 13 major potato States held 232 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2010, down 13 percent from a year ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 66 percent of the 2010 fall storage States' production, three percentage points below December 1, 2009. Potato disappearance, at 119 million cwt, was 1 percent above December 1, 2009. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 12.5 million cwt, was down 13 percent from the same date in 2009. Processors in the 9 major States have used 63.5 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 4 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for 7.86 million cwt of the total processing, down 28 percent from last year. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: December 1, 2009-2010 [Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2009 totaled 23.6 million cwt] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2009 : Crop of 2010 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : December stocks : : : December stocks State : : Stocks : as a percent : : Stocks : as a percent : Production : December 1, : of : Production : December 1, : of : : 2009 : production : : 2010 : production -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 cwt ------- percent ------- 1,000 cwt ------- percent : California .........: 3,960 2,100 53 2,280 1,600 70 Colorado ...........: 22,080 15,900 72 21,528 15,500 72 Idaho ..............: 132,500 98,000 74 114,440 82,500 72 Maine ..............: 15,263 12,000 79 15,732 12,000 76 Michigan ...........: 15,660 9,000 57 15,660 9,300 59 Minnesota ..........: 20,700 13,300 64 17,010 11,000 65 Montana ............: 3,298 3,300 100 3,616 3,500 97 Nebraska ...........: 8,756 5,700 65 7,719 4,900 63 New York ...........: 4,950 2,400 48 4,830 2,300 48 North Dakota .......: 19,125 13,000 68 22,000 14,000 64 Oregon .............: 21,460 17,400 81 20,058 15,100 75 Washington .........: 87,230 53,100 61 81,740 44,100 54 Wisconsin ..........: 28,980 20,600 71 24,800 16,500 67 : Total ..............: 383,962 265,800 69 351,413 232,300 66 : Klamath Basin 1/ ...: (NA) 4,500 (NA) (NA) 3,700 (NA) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath Co. Oregon. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2001-2010 [For 2001-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : year : Production : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : 2001 ....: 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 ....: 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 ....: 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 ....: 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 ....: 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 ....: 383,962 265,800 234,300 203,500 169,700 128,700 89,610 55,120 2010 ....: 351,413 232,300 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks - 10 Selected States: December 1, 2009-2010 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato types :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds :Round whites : Long whites : Yellows : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent : Colorado ...........: 3 2 2 3 - - 11 10 84 85 Idaho ..............: 2 2 2 1 - 1 1 1 95 95 Maine ..............: 3 4 38 36 - 1 4 3 55 56 Michigan ...........: 1 1 89 90 - - - - 10 9 Minnesota ..........: 13 9 3 2 - - 1 1 83 88 New York ...........: 4 8 91 89 - - 5 3 - - North Dakota .......: 15 15 9 10 6 7 1 1 69 67 Oregon .............: 1 1 8 7 - - 1 2 90 90 Washington .........: 3 3 4 4 5 5 1 1 87 87 Wisconsin ..........: 4 4 14 25 - - 1 1 81 70 : 10 State average ...: 4 3 10 11 1 2 2 2 83 82 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2007-2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : million cwt : 2007 ...: 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 ...: 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 ...: 14.3 16.5 18.8 21.1 24.4 26.5 28.5 2010 ...: 12.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 9 Major States: 2008-2010 [Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : crop year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : Idaho and Oregon, Malheur : 2008 ......................: 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 ......................: 23,110 29,180 35,170 42,050 49,200 56,100 62,930 79,400 2010 ......................: 21,040 : Maine 1/ : 2008 ......................: 1,555 2,130 2,765 3,355 3,815 4,565 5,265 7,120 2009 ......................: 1,575 2,060 2,680 3,265 3,915 4,550 5,260 7,160 2010 ......................: 1,915 : Washington and Oregon, Other : 2008 ......................: 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 ......................: 25,395 31,245 36,530 43,780 50,130 56,700 64,805 75,690 2010 ......................: 28,860 : Other States 2/ : 2008 ......................: 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 ......................: 10,865 13,565 16,305 18,995 21,600 24,355 27,375 34,240 2010 ......................: 11,665 : Total : 2008 ......................: 68,975 84,280 99,155 116,400 133,220 149,285 168,420 203,005 2009 ......................: 60,945 76,050 90,685 108,090 124,845 141,705 160,370 196,490 2010 ......................: 63,480 : Dehydrated 3/ : 2008 ......................: 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 ......................: 10,985 14,035 17,150 19,895 23,155 26,630 30,045 38,915 2010 ......................: 7,860 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in Wisconsin. 3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for nearly 88 percent of the United States all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted each month from December through June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin). Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous month are subject to revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the Potatoes Annual Summary. Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of- season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 232 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.2 percent, or approximately 5.11 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.9 percent, or approximately 9.06 million cwt. Changes between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 4.01 million cwt, ranging from 110,000 cwt to14.5 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the December 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 times and above 5 times. Fall Potato Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks - United States: 2000-2010 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final year : stocks : final : stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt : 2000 .....: 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 .....: 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 .....: 265,190 100.3 264,485 2003 .....: 267,100 99.7 267,900 2004 .....: 271,600 100.2 271,100 2005 .....: 253,400 99.8 253,800 2006 .....: 252,300 97.5 258,900 2007 .....: 270,000 101.7 265,500 2008 .....: 242,200 99.4 243,700 2009 .....: 264,500 99.5 265,800 2010 .....: 232,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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