Potato Stocks ISSN: 1949-1565 Released February 15, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Potato Stocks Up 4 Percent From February 2011 The 13 major potato States held 187 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2012, up 4 percent from a year ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 49 percent of the 2011 fall storage States' production, one percentage point below February 1, 2011. Potato disappearance, at 193 million cwt, was 9 percent above February 1, 2011. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 19.3 million cwt, was up 16 percent from the same date in 2011. Processors in the 9 major States have used 106 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 15 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for 20.9 million cwt of the total processing, up 53 percent from last year. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: February 1, 2011-2012 [Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2011 totaled 23.6 million cwt] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2010 : Crop of 2011 :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks :February stocks : : Stocks : Stocks :February stocks : Production : February 1, : as a percent : Production : December 1, : February 1, : as a percent : : 2011 : of : : 2011 : 2012 : of : : : production : : : : production ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 cwt ------ percent --------------- 1,000 cwt --------------- percent : California ......: 2,828 1,200 42 4,128 2,500 1,700 41 Colorado ........: 21,528 11,400 53 21,291 15,400 11,800 55 Idaho ...........: 112,970 62,500 55 127,070 88,000 67,500 53 Maine ...........: 15,892 9,300 59 14,310 10,600 7,300 51 Michigan ........: 15,660 5,900 38 15,180 8,600 4,700 31 Minnesota .......: 17,010 7,700 45 16,685 10,000 8,300 50 Montana .........: 3,673 3,300 90 3,795 3,700 3,500 92 Nebraska ........: 7,719 3,400 44 7,800 4,700 3,600 46 New York ........: 5,120 1,500 29 4,050 2,100 1,200 30 North Dakota ....: 22,000 10,300 47 18,865 13,000 9,300 49 : Oregon ..........: 20,058 12,700 63 23,342 17,900 13,000 56 Washington ......: 88,440 40,600 46 98,400 57,500 44,000 45 Wisconsin .......: 24,293 10,500 43 25,000 16,000 11,000 44 : Total ...........: 357,191 180,300 50 379,916 250,000 186,900 49 : Klamath Basin 1/ : (NA) 2,500 (NA) (NA) 5,200 3,600 (NA) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2002-2011 [For 2002-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : year : Production : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : 2002 ....: 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 ....: 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 ....: 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 ....: 378,732 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 ....: 383,962 265,800 234,300 203,500 169,700 128,700 89,610 55,120 2010 ....: 357,191 240,200 209,400 180,300 148,500 111,000 72,000 41,320 2011 ....: 379,916 250,000 (NA) 186,900 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. Fall Potato Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks - 10 Selected States: February 1, 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round whites : Long whites : Yellows : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :Feb :Dec :Feb :2011:2011:2012:2011:2011:2012:2011:2011:2012:2011:2011:2012:2011:2011:2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : % : Colorado .........: 2 1 1 3 4 4 - - - 10 8 8 85 87 87 Idaho ............: 1 3 3 2 2 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 96 93 93 Maine ............: 2 3 3 43 38 33 - - - 2 3 3 53 56 61 Michigan .........: 1 1 - 86 88 84 - - - - - - 13 11 16 Minnesota ........: 6 10 8 2 4 3 - - - 1 1 1 91 85 88 New York .........: 2 5 5 97 93 90 - - - 1 2 5 - - - North Dakota .....: 13 16 16 13 11 12 5 5 4 1 1 1 68 67 67 Oregon ...........: 1 2 1 5 5 5 - - - 2 2 2 92 91 92 Washington .......: 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 87 87 87 Wisconsin ........: 2 5 2 46 25 43 - - - - 1 - 52 69 55 : 10 State average .: 3 4 3 12 10 10 1 2 2 2 2 2 82 82 83 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2008-2011 [Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : million cwt : 2008 ...: 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 ...: 14.3 16.5 18.8 21.1 24.4 26.5 28.5 2010 ...: 12.7 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.4 22.1 23.3 2011 ...: 13.7 16.5 19.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 9 Major States: 2009-2011 [Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : crop year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : Idaho and Oregon, Malheur : 2009 .......................: 23,110 29,180 35,170 42,050 49,200 56,100 62,930 79,400 2010 .......................: 21,040 26,840 32,700 39,240 46,180 52,830 59,440 70,050 2011 .......................: 28,060 34,800 41,800 : Maine 1/ : 2009 .......................: 1,575 2,060 2,680 3,265 3,915 4,550 5,260 7,160 2010 .......................: 1,860 2,390 3,000 3,620 4,320 4,980 5,645 7,490 2011 .......................: 1,860 2,365 3,070 : Washington and Oregon, Other : 2009 .......................: 25,395 31,245 36,530 43,780 50,130 56,700 64,805 75,690 2010 .......................: 27,670 33,570 38,815 46,700 53,660 60,145 67,655 77,940 2011 .......................: 31,745 38,160 44,465 : Other States 2/ : 2009 .......................: 10,865 13,565 16,305 18,995 21,600 24,355 27,375 34,240 2010 .......................: 11,820 14,785 17,435 20,370 23,215 25,775 28,690 35,430 2011 .......................: 11,215 13,650 16,330 : Total : 2009 .......................: 60,945 76,050 90,685 108,090 124,845 141,705 160,370 196,490 2010 .......................: 62,390 77,585 91,950 109,930 127,375 143,730 161,430 190,910 2011 .......................: 72,880 88,975 105,665 : Dehydrated 3/ : 2009 .......................: 10,985 14,035 17,150 19,895 23,155 26,630 30,045 38,915 2010 .......................: 7,960 10,795 13,645 16,485 19,415 22,740 25,855 32,700 2011 .......................: 13,375 16,845 20,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 2/ Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in Wisconsin. 3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for nearly 89 percent of the United States all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted during the months of December, February, April and June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin). Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous month are subject to revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the Potatoes Annual Summary. Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of- season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 187 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent, or approximately 5.23 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent, or approximately 9.16 million cwt. Changes between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 3.97 million cwt, ranging from 100,000 cwt to 14.2 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 13 times and above 7 times. Fall Potato Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks - United States: 2001-2011 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final year : stocks : final : stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt : 2001 .....: 201,750 105.0 192,090 2002 .....: 197,470 99.2 199,020 2003 .....: 200,530 100.1 200,230 2004 .....: 204,190 100.3 203,490 2005 .....: 187,600 99.2 189,100 2006 .....: 187,800 97.7 192,200 2007 .....: 206,200 103.5 199,300 2008 .....: 183,200 99.6 183,900 2009 .....: 203,400 100.0 203,500 2010 .....: 175,700 97.4 180,300 2011 .....: 186,900 (NA) (NA) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 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