Mt An 5-2 (7-04) Sheep National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 23, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Sheep call Scott Hollis at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 All Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 2 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2004, totaled 7.65 million head, 2 percent below July 1, 2003. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.55 million head on July 1, 2004 was 1 percent below July 1, 2003. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs) at 3.11 million head, were 3 percent below last July. The breeding herd consists of 3.75 million ewes one year old and older, 180,000 rams one year old and older, and 620,000 replacement lambs (including newborn lambs). Market lamb inventory at 3.03 million head was comprised of 1.80 million lambs under 65 pounds, 635,000 lambs 65-84 pounds, 355,000 lambs 85-105 pounds, and 240,000 lambs over 105 pounds. Market sheep inventory was 75,000. The 2004 Lamb Crop in the United States is expected to total 4.08 million head, down 1 percent from the 2003 lamb crop of 4.12 million head. Lambs born during January through June 2004 totaled 3.61 million head or 88 percent of the yearly total. An additional 470,000 head are expected to be born during the period July through December 2004. Region 3 (CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY) accounted for 34.0 percent of all sheep and lambs. Region 2 (NM & TX) accounted for 20.1 percent, Region 1 (AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA) for 16.9 percent, Region 4 (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK) for 15.4 percent, and Region 5 (all other States) accounted for 13.6 percent. Contents Page All Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2003-2004 . . . . . .1 Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2003-2004. . . .1 Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2003-2004. . . . .2 Lamb Crop, 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Final Estimates 1999-2003 All Sheep and Lambs Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory. . . . . . . . . . .4 Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory. . . . . . . . . . . .4 Ewes One Year Old and Older . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Rams One Year Old and Older . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Replacement Lambs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Market Sheep and Lambs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Special Note Final estimates for January were published for Sheep covering 1999-2003 in April, 2004. Due to those revisions it was necessary to review July inventory numbers to maintain traditional relationships at the regional and U.S. level. The final estimates for July published on pages 4-7 are a result of that review. All Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep : 2004 : Breeding Sheep : Market Sheep : and Lambs : as % : and Lambs : and Lambs Regions 1/ :------------------: of :---------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pct ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ : Region 1 : 1,330 1,290 97 830 810 500 480 : Region 2 : 1,620 1,540 95 1,050 1,010 570 530 : Region 3 : 2,610 2,600 100 1,420 1,430 1,190 1,170 : Region 4 : 1,220 1,180 97 670 650 550 530 : Region 5 : 1,020 1,040 102 640 645 380 395 : US : 7,800 7,650 98 4,610 4,545 3,190 3,105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older : :Total Breeding :-------------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and Regions 1/ : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 710 685 30 30 90 95 830 810 : Region 2 : 875 840 45 40 130 130 1,050 1,010 : Region 3 : 1,210 1,210 40 40 170 180 1,420 1,430 : Region 4 : 545 525 30 30 95 95 670 650 : Region 5 : 485 485 40 40 115 120 640 645 : US : 3,825 3,745 185 180 600 620 4,610 4,545 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Regions 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 130 155 130 50 465 15 480 : Region 2 : 355 120 30 15 520 10 530 : Region 3 : 830 150 70 100 1,150 20 1,170 : Region 4 : 240 135 85 55 515 15 530 : Region 5 : 245 75 40 20 380 15 395 : US : 1,800 635 355 240 3,030 75 3,105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Region 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 150 155 130 55 490 10 500 : Region 2 : 375 130 35 15 555 15 570 : Region 3 : 820 165 80 110 1,175 15 1,190 : Region 4 : 255 135 95 55 540 10 550 : Region 5 : 245 75 35 15 370 10 380 : US : 1,845 660 375 250 3,130 60 3,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number by Region and United States, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Total : Breeding : Lambs per Regions : Lambs Born :Lambs Expected: Lamb : Ewes 1+ :100 Ewes 1+ 2/ : Jan-Jun 3/ : Jul-Dec 4/ : Crop : Jan 1 : Jan 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------------ 1,000 Head ------------------ Number : Region 1 : 530 200 730 703 104 : Region 2 : 560 120 680 783 87 : Region 3 : 1,260 30 1,290 1,064 121 : Region 4 : 620 50 670 492 136 : Region 5 : 640 70 710 559 127 : US : 3,610 470 4,080 3,601 113 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2004. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2004. All Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep and Lambs Regions 1/ :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 1,520 1,450 1,450 1,430 1,330 Region 2 : 1,960 1,760 1,690 1,660 1,620 Region 3 : 3,040 2,965 2,885 2,800 2,610 Region 4 : 1,340 1,300 1,275 1,220 1,220 Region 5 : 1,140 1,025 1,000 990 1,020 US : 9,000 8,500 8,300 8,100 7,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Breeding Sheep and Lambs Regions 1/ :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 950 910 910 900 830 Region 2 : 1,280 1,160 1,110 1,080 1,050 Region 3 : 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,420 Region 4 : 740 715 700 670 670 Region 5 : 730 645 630 620 640 US : 5,350 5,030 4,900 4,770 4,610 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Market Sheep and Lambs Regions 1/ :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 570 540 540 530 500 Region 2 : 680 600 580 580 570 Region 3 : 1,390 1,365 1,335 1,300 1,190 Region 4 : 600 585 575 550 550 Region 5 : 410 380 370 370 380 US : 3,650 3,470 3,400 3,330 3,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Ewes One Year Old and Older Regions 1/ :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 800 775 775 765 710 Region 2 : 1,060 960 925 900 875 Region 3 : 1,370 1,330 1,320 1,280 1,210 Region 4 : 595 575 570 545 545 Region 5 : 550 485 480 470 485 US : 4,375 4,125 4,070 3,960 3,825 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Rams One Year Old and Older Regions 1/ :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 35 35 35 35 30 Region 2 : 55 50 45 45 45 Region 3 : 50 50 45 45 40 Region 4 : 30 30 30 30 30 Region 5 : 45 40 35 35 40 US : 215 205 190 190 185 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Replacement Lambs Regions 1/ :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 115 100 100 100 90 Region 2 : 165 150 140 135 130 Region 3 : 230 220 185 175 170 Region 4 : 115 110 100 95 95 Region 5 : 135 120 115 115 115 US : 760 700 640 620 600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, July 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :------------------------------------------------: : Total Regions 1/: Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 165 175 165 55 560 10 570 Region 2 : 465 135 40 20 660 20 680 Region 3 : 980 175 105 110 1,370 20 1,390 Region 4 : 295 150 100 45 590 10 600 Region 5 : 215 95 55 30 395 15 410 US : 2,120 730 465 260 3,575 75 3,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, July 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :------------------------------------------------: : Total Regions 1/: Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 160 175 140 55 530 10 540 Region 2 : 415 120 25 20 580 20 600 Region 3 : 975 170 90 110 1,345 20 1,365 Region 4 : 265 145 100 65 575 10 585 Region 5 : 210 95 40 25 370 10 380 US : 2,025 705 395 275 3,400 70 3,470 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, July 1, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :------------------------------------------------: : Total Regions 1/: Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 160 170 140 60 530 10 540 Region 2 : 390 125 25 20 560 20 580 Region 3 : 935 175 90 115 1,315 20 1,335 Region 4 : 265 140 100 60 565 10 575 Region 5 : 215 80 40 25 360 10 370 US : 1,965 690 395 280 3,330 70 3,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, July 1, 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :------------------------------------------------: : Total Regions 1/: Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 155 170 140 55 520 10 530 Region 2 : 385 130 30 15 560 20 580 Region 3 : 910 170 90 110 1,280 20 1,300 Region 4 : 260 140 90 50 540 10 550 Region 5 : 220 85 35 20 360 10 370 US : 1,930 695 385 250 3,260 70 3,330 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs: Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, July 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :------------------------------------------------: : Total Regions 1/: Under : 65 to : 85 to : Over : : Market : Market : 65 : 84 : 105 : 105 : Total : Sheep :Sheep and : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : Pounds : : : Lambs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 150 155 130 55 490 10 500 Region 2 : 375 130 35 15 555 15 570 Region 3 : 820 165 80 110 1,175 15 1,190 Region 4 : 255 135 95 55 540 10 550 Region 5 : 245 75 35 15 370 10 380 US : 1,845 660 375 250 3,130 60 3,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Reliability of July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 31,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 2,800 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and lamb crop for the entire year of 2004. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and lamb estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2004 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and lambs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for lamb crop in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for lamb crop estimates over the past 10 years is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 4.08 million head by more than 3.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 5.8 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Estimate changes for Lamb Crop between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 72,000 head, ranging from 4,000 to 406,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Lamb Crop has been below the latest estimate 7 times and above the latest estimate 3 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : Lamb Crop : 3.1 5.8 236.0 72 4 406 3 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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