HDR1012000150070117971500Turkeys Released January 17, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkeys" call Jim Brewster at (202) 720-8784, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Turkeys Raised in 1996 Up 3 Percent Turkeys raised in the United States during 1996 totaled 301 million, up 3 percent from the 293 million turkeys raised during 1995. North Carolina ranked first in the number raised with 59.5 million, followed by Minnesota with 43.5 million; Arkansas with 28.0 million; Virginia with 25.0 million; California with 22.5 million; Missouri with 22.0 million; and Indiana with 14.0 million. These States accounted for 71 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 1996. Turkey Growers Plan 2 Percent Increase in 1997 Turkey growers in the 20 major producing States intend to raise 2 percent more turkeys than in 1996 and 5 percent more than 1995. Intentions for the top 7 producing States compared with 1996 are as follows: North Carolina, down 5 percent; Minnesota, unchanged; Arkansas, up 11 percent; California, down 4 percent; Missouri, up 7 percent; Virginia, up 10 percent; and Indiana up 1 percent. The number of turkeys actually raised in 1997 may vary from growers' intentions shown in this report depending on feed costs, supply of hatching eggs, cost of poults, and prices growers receive for turkeys during the next few months. Pou 3-2 (1-97) Turkeys: Number Raised in 1995 and 1996 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1996 State --------------------------------------------------: as % of : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 26,000 28,000 108 CA : 22,000 22,500 102 CO : 4,300 4,800 112 CT : 15 8 53 GA : 1,450 550 38 IL : 3,600 3,300 92 IN : 14,200 14,000 99 IA : 8,000 8,000 100 KS : 1,600 1,750 109 MD 1/ : 260 330 127 MA : 105 80 76 MN : 40,500 43,500 107 MO : 22,500 22,000 98 NH : 17 15 88 NJ : 88 73 83 NY : 505 520 103 NC : 61,200 59,500 97 ND : 1,750 2,100 120 OH : 6,500 6,800 105 PA : 11,500 11,700 102 SC : 6,120 8,300 136 SD : 2,800 3,000 107 VT : 31 35 113 VA : 23,500 25,000 106 WV : 4,800 4,500 94 : Oth Sts 2/ : 29,515 31,017 105 : US : 292,856 301,378 103 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes DE. 2/ MI, NE, OK, OR, TX, UT and WI combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Turkeys: Death Loss by Geographic Division and United States, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Young Turkeys Lost as a Percent of Geographic : Total Poults Placed Division :---------------------------------------------------- : 1994 1/ : 1995 1/ : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : E N Cent : 9 11 10 W N Cent : 10 11 10 N & S Atl : 8 10 10 S Cent : 10 12 11 West : 10 10 10 : US : 9.8 11.0 10.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Revised. Regional Listing: North Atlantic = CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. E North Central = IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. W North Central = IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic = DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central = AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West = AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Turkeys: Number Raised in 1996 and Intentions for 1997, Selected States and 20-State Total ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1997 State :----------------------------------------------: as % of : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 28,000 31,000 111 CA : 22,500 21,500 96 CO : 4,800 4,800 100 GA : 550 2/ 2/ IN : 14,000 14,200 101 IA : 8,000 8,000 100 MN : 43,500 43,500 100 MO : 22,000 23,500 107 NC : 59,500 56,500 95 ND : 2,100 2,300 110 OH : 6,800 7,200 106 PA : 11,700 11,100 95 SC : 8,300 11,500 139 SD : 3,000 3,200 107 VA : 25,000 27,500 110 : Oth Sts 1/ : 2/ 2/ 102 : 20 State Total: 2/ 2/ 102 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ OK, OR, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ GA 1997 Intentions, Other States and 20 State Total not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Turkey Hatchery Production: Monthly Poult Placements, United States, 1994-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :---------------------: Previous:-----------------------: Previous : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : Year : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : Year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 ----- Percent ------ 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 23,920 23,371 98 23,920 23,371 98 Oct : 23,410 25,158 107 47,330 48,529 103 Nov : 24,697 24,619 100 72,027 73,148 102 Dec : 25,621 25,269 99 97,648 98,417 101 Jan : 27,024 27,391 101 124,672 125,808 101 Feb : 25,907 27,596 107 150,579 153,404 102 Mar : 28,530 27,932 98 179,109 181,336 101 Apr : 26,736 29,725 111 205,845 211,061 103 May : 29,497 29,668 101 235,342 240,729 102 Jun : 29,965 27,987 93 265,307 268,716 101 Jul : 28,983 28,913 100 294,290 297,629 101 Aug : 26,592 27,746 104 320,882 325,375 101 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Excludes exported poults. Turkeys Raised Estimates Survey Procedures: Survey data for the turkeys raised estimate are collected from a list of contractors and independent growers during December. States use all known sources of producer names to ensure that the list is as complete as possible. Turkey producers are then contacted either by mail, telephone, or in person. Diligent effort is made to ensure that all operations are accounted for in the estimate. Estimation Procedures: Turkeys raised estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reached maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placements of turkey poults from the Monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the December Growers Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Generally, individual State data are not published if there are less than three operations in a State, or if any one operation has 60 percent or more of the total turkeys in the State. These data are combined into the "Other States" category. Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of known active producers and, therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised estimates are made in August. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one-half of one percent of the final estimate published in January. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. The next "Turkeys" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on August 26, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). 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For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97