Pou 3-2 (8-99) Turkeys National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 26, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkeys" call John Lange at (202) 720-0585, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Turkeys Raised Down 4 Percent from 1998 The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 1999 is 275 million, down 4 percent from the 285 million raised during 1998. The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 1999: North Carolina is forecast to continue as the nation's leader in turkey production with 48.5 million birds, 3 percent less than 1998. Minnesota ranks second with 43.5 million, down 2 percent from last year. Arkansas is in third place by producing 27.0 million birds, 4 percent less than a year ago. Virginia is the nations's fourth largest producing State with 25.0 million birds, down 4 percent from a year ago. Missouri is in fifth place with 22.0 million birds, unchanged from last year's production. California expects to raise 18.0 million turkeys, 5 percent below a year earlier. Turkeys: Number Raised by State and United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1999 State :-------------------------------------------------: as % of : 1998 1/ : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AR : 28,000 27,000 96 CA : 19,000 18,000 95 CT : 5 5 100 IL : 3,200 2,600 81 IN : 13,500 13,500 100 IA : 7,000 7,500 107 MD 2/ : 600 445 74 MA : 81 83 102 MN : 44,500 43,500 98 MO : 22,000 22,000 100 NH : 14 14 100 NJ : 71 55 77 NY : 500 480 96 NC : 50,000 48,500 97 ND : 1,800 1,700 94 OH : 5,500 5,200 95 PA : 10,500 10,100 96 SC : 10,600 8,500 80 SD : 3,800 3,900 103 VT : 41 43 105 VA : 26,000 25,000 96 WV : 4,300 4,500 105 : Oth Sts 3/ : 34,192 32,261 94 : US : 285,204 274,886 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Includes DE. 3/ CO, GA, KS, MI, NE, OK, OR, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Turkeys Raised Estimates Data Sources: The Turkey Hatchery Survey provides the basis for the preliminary Turkeys Raised estimate published in August. Turkey hatchery estimates are made in 22 States each month and provide the number of eggs in incubators and poults placed in production. Data on poults placed into the United States from Canadian hatcheries are also included in the preliminary estimate. Estimation Procedures: Turkeys Raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production,as well as breeder turkeys which reached maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" survey provides the basis for the preliminary estimates published in August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the December Growers Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Generally, individual State data are not published if there are less than three operations in a State, or if any one operation has 60 percent or more of the total turkeys in the State. These data are combined into the "Other States" category. Reliability: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates are based on a census of known active hatcheries and, therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised estimates are made in August. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one-half of one percent of the final estimate published in January. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. The next "Turkeys" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 12, 2000. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). 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