Pou 3 (9-07) Turkey Hatchery National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 13, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Toby Paterson at (202) 720-0585, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Eggs in Incubators on September 1 Up 4 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2007, in the United States totaled 30.7 million, up 4 percent from September 1, 2006. Eggs in incubators were down 8 percent from the August 1, 2007 total of 33.5 million eggs. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 4 percent, West North Central up 4 percent, North and South Atlantic up 14 percent, and South Central and West down 10 percent. Poults Hatched During August Up 4 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during August 2007, in the United States totaled 26.9 million, up 4 percent from August 2006. Poults hatched were down 1 percent from July 2007 total of 27.3 million poults. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 3 percent, West North Central up 2 percent, North and South Atlantic up 8 percent, and South Central and West up 9 percent. Net Poults Placed During August Up 4 Percent from Last Year The 26.8 million net poults placed during August 2007 in the United States were up 4 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 2 percent from the July 2007 total of 27.3 million. Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, September 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Sep 1 : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : Previous : Previous Region : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,830 5,036 4,619 96 92 W N Central : 11,367 12,808 11,843 104 92 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 9,209 10,876 10,458 114 96 S Central & West 1/: 4,206 4,819 3,778 90 78 : US : 29,612 33,539 30,698 104 92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Eggs Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, August 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Aug : Jul : Aug : Previous : Previous Region : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,275 4,099 4,168 97 102 W N Central : 10,033 10,416 10,274 102 99 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 7,997 8,844 8,608 108 97 S Central & West 1/: 3,542 3,943 3,874 109 98 : US : 25,847 27,302 26,924 104 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : Year : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 23,018 23,534 102 23,018 23,534 102 Oct : 21,633 24,891 115 44,651 48,425 108 Nov : 22,540 23,792 106 67,191 72,217 107 Dec : 24,329 23,879 98 91,520 96,096 105 Jan : 24,341 26,068 107 115,861 122,164 105 Feb : 23,473 24,249 103 139,334 146,413 105 Mar : 25,230 26,433 105 164,564 172,846 105 Apr : 24,212 26,040 108 188,776 198,886 105 May : 25,639 27,271 106 214,415 226,157 105 Jun : 26,002 26,277 101 240,417 252,434 105 Jul 2/ : 26,058 27,343 105 266,475 279,777 105 Aug : 25,693 26,796 104 292,168 306,573 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2007 data only. Regional Listing: North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or EDR. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults from outside the U.S. and excludes poults exported outside the U.S.. Cummulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators over the past 10 years is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 30.7 million eggs by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.8 percent. Reliability of U.S. September 1 Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Years : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------ Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 1.0 1.8 537 202 0 757 2 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch........................(202) 720-3570 Darin Jantzi, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section(202) 720-3570 David Colwell - Cold Storage............................(202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Egg Products, Poultry Slaughter, Catfish Processing, Mink ......................(202) 690-3237 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey.................................(202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs..............................(202) 690-8632 Toby Paterson - Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised.........(202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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