Pou 3 (10-07) Turkey Hatchery National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 12, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Toby Paterson at (202) 720-0585, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Eggs in Incubators on October 1 Up Slightly from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2007 in the United States totaled 30.2 million, up slightly from October 1, 2006. Eggs in incubators were down 2 percent from the September 1, 2007 total of 30.9 million eggs. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 12 percent, West North Central up 7 percent, North and South Atlantic up slightly, and South Central and West down 2 percent. Poults Hatched During September Up 1 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during September 2007 in the United States totaled 24.3 million, up 1 percent from September 2006. Poults hatched were down 10 percent from the August 2007 total of 26.9 million poults. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 8 percent, West North Central up 1 percent, North and South Atlantic up 7 percent, and South Central and West down 5 percent. Net Poults Placed During September Up 3 Percent from Last Year The 24.2 million net poults placed during September 2007 in the United States were up 3 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 9 percent from the August 2007 total of 26.5 million. Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, October 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Oct 1 : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : Previous : Previous Region : 2006 : 2007 1/ : 2007 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 5,062 4,619 4,454 88 96 W N Central : 11,501 11,843 12,281 107 104 N & S Atlantic 2/ : 9,731 10,458 9,775 100 93 S Central & West 2/: 3,749 3,941 3,680 98 93 : US : 30,043 30,861 30,190 100 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Eggs Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, September 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Sep : Aug : Sep : Previous : Previous Region : 2006 : 2007 : 2007 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,032 4,168 3,714 92 89 W N Central : 9,222 10,274 9,317 101 91 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 7,508 8,608 8,059 107 94 S Central & West 1/: 3,337 3,874 3,169 95 82 : US : 24,099 26,924 24,259 101 90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2006-08 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : Year : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 23,534 24,219 103 23,534 24,219 103 Oct : 24,891 48,425 Nov : 23,792 72,217 Dec : 23,879 96,096 Jan : 26,068 122,164 Feb : 24,249 146,413 Mar : 26,433 172,846 Apr : 26,040 198,886 May : 27,271 226,157 Jun : 26,277 252,434 Jul : 27,343 279,777 Aug 2/ : 26,523 306,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2007 data only. Regional Listing: North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or EDR. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults from outside the U.S. and excludes poults exported outside the U.S.. Cummulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators over the past 10 years is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 30.2 million eggs by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.3 percent. Reliability of U.S. October 1 Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Years : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------- Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 1.8 3.3 988 354 0 1,323 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570 Darin Jantzi, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section (202) 720-3570 David Colwell - Cold Storage (202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Egg Products, Poultry Slaughter, Catfish Processing, Mink (202) 690-3237 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey (202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs (202) 690-8632 Toby Paterson - Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised (202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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