Pou 3 (10-08) Turkey Hatchery National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 14, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Fleming Gibson at (202) 690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Eggs in Incubators on October 1 Down 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2008, in the United States totaled 28.3 million, down 6 percent from October 1, 2007. Eggs in incubators were down slightly from the September 1, 2008 total of 28.4 million eggs. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 9 percent, West North Central down 8 percent, North and South Atlantic up 9 percent, and South Central and West down 37 percent. Poults Hatched During September Down 2 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during September 2008, in the United States totaled 23.7 million, down 2 percent from September 2007. Poults hatched were down 6 percent from August 2008 total of 25.3 million poults. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central up 6 percent, West North Central up 3 percent, North and South Atlantic down 1 percent, and South Central and West down 32 percent. Net Poults Placed During September Down 6 Percent from Last Year The 22.7 million net poults placed during September 2008 in the United States were down 6 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 7 percent from the August 2008 total of 24.3 million. Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, October 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Oct 1 : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : Previous : Previous Region : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2008 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,454 4,570 4,059 91 89 W N Central : 12,281 11,498 11,289 92 98 N & S Atlantic 2/ : 9,775 9,666 10,621 109 110 S Central & West 2/: 3,680 2,656 2,336 63 88 : US : 30,190 28,390 28,305 94 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Poults Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, September 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Sep : Aug : Sep : Previous : Previous Region : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2008 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 3,714 3,777 3,919 106 104 W N Central : 9,317 10,272 9,638 103 94 N & S Atlantic 2/ : 8,059 7,936 7,992 99 101 S Central & West 2/: 3,169 3,342 2,143 68 64 : US : 24,259 25,327 23,692 98 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2007-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : Year : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 24,073 22,694 94 24,073 22,694 94 Oct : 25,222 49,295 Nov : 24,755 74,050 Dec : 24,091 98,141 Jan : 26,067 124,208 Feb : 25,011 149,219 Mar : 26,369 175,588 Apr : 25,863 201,451 May : 27,084 228,535 Jun : 25,557 254,092 Jul : 26,551 280,643 Aug 2/ : 24,337 304,980 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2008 data only. Regional Listing: North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults and excludes exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators over the past 24 months is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.3 million eggs by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of U.S. October 1 Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Months : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :---------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------- Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 1.1 2.0 554 201 0 1,022 9 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch...........................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section....(202) 720-4447 David Colwell - Cold Storage...............................(202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised..................................(202) 690-3237 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey(202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs.................................(202) 690-8632 Toby Paterson - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink..............................(202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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