Pou 3 (12-08) Turkey Hatchery National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 12, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Fleming Gibson at (202) 690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Eggs in Incubators on December 1 Down 10 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on December 1, 2008, in the United States totaled 27.3 million, down 10 percent from December 1, 2007. Eggs in incubators were down 1 percent from the November 1, 2008 total of 27.5 million eggs. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 11 percent, West North Central down 7 percent, North and South Atlantic down 8 percent, and South Central and West down 22 percent. Poults Hatched During November Down 14 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during November 2008, in the United States totaled 22.1 million, down 14 percent from November 2007. Poults hatched were down 5 percent from October 2008 total of 23.3 million poults. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 12 percent, West North Central down 12 percent, North and South Atlantic down 9 percent, and South Central and West down 38 percent. Net Poults Placed During November Down 14 Percent from Last Year The 21.3 million net poults placed during November 2008 in the United States were down 14 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 4 percent from the October 2008 total of 22.2 million. Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, December 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Dec 1 : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : Previous : Previous Region : 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ -- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,574 4,276 4,088 89 96 W N Central : 11,460 10,607 10,695 93 101 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 10,160 10,225 9,368 92 92 S Central & West 1/: 4,037 2,382 3,161 78 133 : US : 30,231 27,490 27,312 90 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Poults Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, November 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Nov : Oct : Nov : Previous : Previous Region : 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ -- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,037 3,619 3,549 88 98 W N Central : 10,107 9,438 8,881 88 94 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 8,533 8,211 7,734 91 94 S Central & West 1/: 3,084 2,006 1,919 62 96 : US : 25,761 23,274 22,083 86 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2007-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : Year : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 24,073 22,515 94 24,073 22,515 94 Oct 2/ : 25,222 22,165 88 49,295 44,680 91 Nov : 24,755 21,272 86 74,050 65,952 89 Dec : 24,091 98,141 Jan : 26,067 124,208 Feb : 25,011 149,219 Mar : 26,369 175,588 Apr : 25,863 201,451 May : 27,084 228,535 Jun : 25,557 254,092 Jul : 26,551 280,643 Aug : 24,337 304,980 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2008 data only. Regional Listing: North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults and excludes exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators over the past 24 months is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 27.3 million eggs by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of U.S. December 1 Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Months : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :---------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------- Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 1.1 2.0 536 194 0 1,022 8 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.................................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section..........(202) 720-4447 David Colwell - Cold Storage.....................................(202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised................................................(202) 690-3237 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey......(202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs.......................................(202) 690-8632 Toby Paterson - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink...(202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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