Pou 3 (11-09) Turkey Hatchery Washington, D.C. Released November 16, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Doug Bounds at (202) 690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Eggs in Incubators on November 1 Down 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on November 1, 2009, in the United States totaled 25.8 million, down 6 percent from November 1, 2008. Eggs in incubators were down 2 percent from the October 1, 2009 total of 26.4 million eggs. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 9 percent, West North Central up 3 percent, North and South Atlantic down 18 percent, and South Central and West up 9 percent. Poults Hatched During October Down 5 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during October 2009, in the United States totaled 22.0 million, down 5 percent from October 2008. Poults hatched were down slightly from September 2009 total of 22.0 million poults. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 9 percent, West North Central up 3 percent, North and South Atlantic down 12 percent, and South Central and West down 11 percent. Net Poults Placed During October Down 5 Percent from Last Year The 21.1 million net poults placed during October 2009 in the United States were down 5 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were up 1 percent from the September 2009 total of 20.8 million. Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, November 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Nov 1 : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : Previous : Previous Region : 2008 : 2009 1/ : 2009 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 4,276 3,849 3,881 91 101 W N Central : 10,607 11,456 10,874 103 95 N & S Atlantic 2/ : 10,225 8,831 8,429 82 95 S Central & West 2/: 2,382 2,304 2,608 109 113 : US : 27,490 26,440 25,792 94 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Poults Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, October 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Oct : Sep : Oct : Previous : Previous Region : 2008 : 2009 : 2009 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 3,619 3,663 3,308 91 90 W N Central : 9,438 9,554 9,714 103 102 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 8,211 6,486 7,231 88 111 S Central & West 1/: 2,006 2,342 1,786 89 76 : US : 23,274 22,045 22,039 95 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2008-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2008-09 : 2009-10 : Year : 2008-09 : 2009-10 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep 2/ : 22,515 20,843 93 22,515 20,843 93 Oct : 22,165 21,075 95 44,680 41,918 94 Nov : 20,702 65,382 Dec : 23,179 88,561 Jan : 24,131 112,692 Feb : 22,079 134,771 Mar : 23,817 158,588 Apr : 23,988 182,576 May : 22,975 205,551 Jun : 24,107 229,658 Jul : 24,989 254,647 Aug : 22,674 277,321 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2009 data only. Regional Listing: North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults and excludes exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in May. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 25.8 million eggs by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent. Reliability of U.S. November Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Months : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :---------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest:Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------ Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 0.6 1.1 286 116 0 490 9 12 : Poults Hatched : 0.4 0.6 137 59 0 236 10 9 : Net Poult : Placements : 0.9 1.6 329 169 5 570 15 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section (202) 720-4447 David Colwell - Cold Storage (202) 720-8784 Doug Bounds - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised (202) 690-3237 Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink (202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs (202) 690-8632 Troy Marshall - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey (202) 720-3244 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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