Pou 3 (10-10) Turkey Hatchery Washington, D.C. Released October 15, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Doug Bounds at (202) 690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Eggs in Incubators on October 1 Down 4 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2010, in the United States totaled 25.3 million, down 4 percent from October 1, 2009. Eggs in incubators were down 4 percent from the September 1, 2010 total of 26.4 million eggs. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central up 12 percent, West North Central down 1 percent, North and South Atlantic down 16 percent, and South Central and West down 2 percent. Poults Hatched During September Up Slightly from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during September 2010, in the United States totaled 22.1 million, up slightly from September 2009. Poults hatched were down 4 percent from the August 2010 total of 22.9 million poults. Regional changes from the previous year were: East North Central up 2 percent, West North Central down 2 percent, North and South Atlantic up 7 percent, and South Central and West down 15 percent. Net Poults Placed During September Up 4 Percent from Last Year The 21.8 million net poults placed during September 2010 in the United States were up 4 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 4 percent from the August 2010 total of 22.8 million. Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, October 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Oct 1 : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : Previous : Previous Region : 2009 : 2010 1/ : 2010 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 3,849 4,095 4,319 112 105 W N Central : 11,456 11,650 11,345 99 97 N & S Atlantic 2/ : 8,831 8,124 7,422 84 91 S Central & West 2/: 2,304 2,484 2,251 98 91 : US : 26,440 26,353 25,337 96 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Poults Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, September 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :Percent of:Percent of : Sep : Aug : Sep : Previous : Previous Region : 2009 : 2010 : 2010 : Year : Month -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent -- : E N Central : 3,663 3,432 3,737 102 109 W N Central : 9,554 10,081 9,409 98 93 N & S Atlantic 1/ : 6,486 7,055 6,921 107 98 S Central & West 1/: 2,342 2,340 1,998 85 85 : US : 22,045 22,908 22,065 100 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2009-2011 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2009-10 : 2010-11 : Year : 2009-10 : 2010-11 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 20,852 21,789 104 20,852 21,789 104 Oct : 21,245 42,097 Nov : 21,061 63,158 Dec : 22,074 85,232 Jan : 21,833 107,065 Feb : 21,005 128,070 Mar : 23,007 151,077 Apr : 24,546 175,623 May : 24,045 199,668 Jun : 23,946 223,614 Jul : 26,006 249,620 Aug2/ : 22,798 272,418 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2010 data only. Regional Listing: North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults and excludes exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 25.3 million eggs by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. Reliability of U.S. October Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Months : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :---------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest:Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------ Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 1.2 2.1 534 224 0 877 6 16 : Poults Hatched : 0.4 0.7 155 59 0 289 7 10 : Net Poult : Placements : 1.0 1.7 370 173 46 570 11 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch........................................ (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section................. (202) 720-4447 Doug Bounds - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised........ (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage............................................ (202) 720-8784 Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink.. (202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs.............................................. (202) 690-8632 Troy Marshall - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey............... (202) 720-3244 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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