Pou 3 (2-11) Turkey Hatchery Washington, D.C. Released February 16, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Doug Bounds at (202) 690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This report issue is published using both layouts but all future issues will only be produced with the new layout, which is available on the NASS website: http://www.nass.usda.gov. This is the last issue using this layout. Eggs in Incubators on February 1 Up 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on February 1, 2011, in the United States totaled 28.2 million, up 6 percent from February 1, 2010. Eggs in incubators were up 1 percent from the January 1, 2011 total of 27.9 million eggs. Poults Hatched During January Up 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during January 2011, in the United States totaled 23.8 million, up 6 percent from January 2010. Poults hatched were up 1 percent from the December 2010 total of 23.5 million poults. Net Poults Placed During January Up 5 Percent from Last Year The 22.9 million net poults placed during January 2011 in the United States were up 5 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were up 1 percent from the December 2010 total of 22.6 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month, United States, 2009-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Eggs in Incubators: : Percent : Poults Hatched: : Percent : First of Month : of : Entire Month : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : Year : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------ 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 26,366 26,353 100 22,045 22,065 100 Oct : 26,440 26,223 99 22,039 22,085 100 Nov : 26,010 28,415 109 21,499 23,786 111 Dec1/ : 26,559 27,268 103 22,594 23,519 104 Jan2/ : 27,501 27,853 101 22,460 23,781 106 Feb : 26,755 28,238 106 21,391 Mar : 26,823 23,414 Apr : 28,809 24,759 May : 28,740 24,207 Jun : 28,707 24,341 Jul : 29,850 26,198 Aug : 27,947 22,908 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised 2010 poults hatched data only. 2/ Revised 2011 eggs in incubators data only. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2009-2011 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : Year : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 20,852 21,670 104 20,852 21,670 104 Oct : 21,245 21,211 100 42,097 42,881 102 Nov : 21,061 22,604 107 63,158 65,485 104 Dec2/ : 22,074 22,596 102 85,232 88,081 103 Jan : 21,833 22,925 105 107,065 111,006 104 Feb : 21,005 128,070 Mar : 23,007 151,077 Apr : 24,546 175,623 May : 24,045 199,668 Jun : 23,946 223,614 Jul : 26,006 249,620 Aug : 22,798 272,418 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. 2/ Revised 2010 data only. Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only U.S. level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data includes imported poults and excludes exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery Production - Annual Summary" report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.2 million eggs by more than 1.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent. Reliability of U.S. February Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Months : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :---------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest:Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------ Number : Eggs In : Incubators : 1.4 2.4 676 252 2 886 8 16 : Poults Hatched : 0.4 0.8 181 66 0 289 7 11 : Net Poult : Placements : 1.1 1.8 418 176 18 779 11 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch........................................ (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section................. (202) 720-4447 Doug Bounds - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised........ (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage............................................ (202) 720-8784 Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink.. (202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs.............................................. (202) 690-8632 Troy Marshall - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey............... (202) 720-3244 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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