Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released February 16, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This is the first issue produced using the new layout. This report issue is published using both layouts but future issues will only be produced using this layout. The previous layout is available on the NASS website: http://www.nass.usda.gov. Eggs in Incubators on February 1 Up 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on February 1, 2011, in the United States totaled 28.2 million, up 6 percent from February 1, 2010. Eggs in incubators were up 1 percent from the January 1, 2011 total of 27.9 million eggs. Poults Hatched During January Up 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during January 2011, in the United States totaled 23.8 million, up 6 percent from January 2010. Poults hatched were up 1 percent from the December 2010 total of 23.5 million poults. Net Poults Placed During January Up 5 Percent from Last Year The 22.9 million net poults placed during January 2011 in the United States were up 5 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were up 1 percent from the December 2010 total of 22.6 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2009-2011 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2009-2010 :2010-2011 : :2009-2010 :2010-2011 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 26,366 26,353 100 22,045 22,065 100 October ..........: 26,440 26,223 99 22,039 22,085 100 November .........: 26,010 28,415 109 21,499 23,786 111 December .........: 26,559 27,268 103 22,594 23,519 104 January ..........: 27,501 27,853 101 22,460 23,781 106 February .........: 26,755 28,238 106 21,391 March ............: 26,823 23,414 April ............: 28,809 24,759 May ..............: 28,740 24,207 June .............: 28,707 24,341 July .............: 29,850 26,198 August ...........: 27,947 22,908 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2009-2011 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2009-2010 :2010-2011 : :2009-2010 :2010-2011 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent : September ........: 20,852 21,670 104 20,852 21,670 104 October ..........: 21,245 21,211 100 42,097 42,881 102 November .........: 21,061 22,604 107 63,158 65,485 104 December .........: 22,074 22,596 102 85,232 88,081 103 January ..........: 21,833 22,925 105 107,065 111,006 104 February .........: 21,005 128,070 March ............: 23,007 151,077 April ............: 24,546 175,623 May ..............: 24,045 199,668 June .............: 23,946 223,614 July .............: 26,006 249,620 August ...........: 22,798 272,418 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.2 million eggs by more than 1.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent. Reliability of July Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 1.4 2.4 252 2 886 16 8 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.4 0.8 66 0 289 11 7 : Net poult placements ..............: 1.1 1.8 176 18 779 13 11 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................... (202) 720-4447 Doug Bounds - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ............ (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage ................................................ (202) 720-8784 Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink .. (202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................. (202) 690-8632 Troy Marshall - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey ................... 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