Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released October 14, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on October 1 Up 5 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2011, in the United States totaled 27.5 million, up 5 percent from October 1, 2010. Eggs in incubators were down 2 percent from the September 1, 2011 total of 28.1 million eggs. Poults Hatched During September Up 8 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during September 2011, in the United States totaled 23.8 million, up 8 percent from September 2010. Poults hatched were down slightly from the August 2011 total of 23.9 million poults. Net Poults Placed During September Up 8 Percent from Last Year The 23.5 million net poults placed during September 2011 in the United States were up 8 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 2 percent from the August 2011 total of 23.9 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2010-2012 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 26,353 28,072 107 22,065 23,829 108 October ..........: 26,223 27,510 105 22,085 November .........: 28,415 23,783 December .........: 27,327 23,519 January ..........: 27,764 23,973 February .........: 28,431 23,079 March ............: 28,359 24,340 April ............: 27,720 23,735 May ..............: 27,754 24,082 June .............: 28,215 23,812 July .............: 29,178 24,766 August ...........: 28,427 23,887 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2010-2012 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent : September ........: 21,672 23,485 108 21,672 23,485 108 October ..........: 21,094 42,766 November .........: 22,599 65,365 December .........: 22,596 87,961 January ..........: 22,585 110,546 February .........: 22,130 132,676 March ............: 23,720 156,396 April ............: 23,378 179,774 May ..............: 23,893 203,667 June .............: 23,810 227,477 July .............: 24,872 252,349 August ...........: 23,946 276,295 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 27.5 million eggs by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.9 percent. Reliability of October Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 1.7 2.9 333 2 963 19 5 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.4 0.7 66 0 289 13 7 : Net poult placements ..............: 1.2 2.0 216 34 784 14 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........................................................... (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................................... (202) 720-4447 Cody Brokmeyer - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .......................... (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage ................................................................. (202) 720-8784 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ................................................................... (202) 690-8632 Miste Salmon - Broiler Hatchery, Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Census of Aquaculture, Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products, Honey, Mink, Trout Production .. 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