Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released September 14, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on September 1 Down 6 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2012, in the United States totaled 26.3 million, down 6 percent from September 1, 2011. Eggs in incubators were down 9 percent from the August 1, 2012 total of 28.9 million eggs. Poults Hatched During August Down Slightly from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during August 2012, in the United States totaled 23.8 million, down slightly from August 2011. Poults hatched were down 9 percent from the July 2012 total of 26.2 million poults. Net Poults Placed During August Down 2 Percent from Last Year The 23.5 million net poults placed during August 2012 in the United States were down 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 11 percent from the July 2012 total of 26.4 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2010-2013 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2011-2012 :2012-2013 : :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 28,072 26,305 94 22,065 23,157 105 October ..........: 27,170 22,085 22,423 102 November .........: 27,502 23,783 22,734 96 December .........: 28,741 23,519 24,812 105 January ..........: 28,308 23,973 24,463 102 February .........: 28,044 23,079 23,191 100 March ............: 29,039 24,340 25,234 104 April ............: 28,231 23,735 24,291 102 May ..............: 29,648 24,082 25,483 106 June .............: 30,385 23,812 25,021 105 July .............: 29,758 24,766 26,199 106 August ...........: 28,891 23,887 23,826 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2010-2012 [Includes imports and excludes exports.] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : :2010-2011 :2011-2012 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent : September ........: 21,670 22,320 103 21,670 22,320 103 October ..........: 21,212 21,407 101 42,882 43,727 102 November .........: 22,599 22,090 98 65,481 65,817 101 December .........: 22,596 23,893 106 88,077 89,710 102 January ..........: 22,585 23,636 105 110,662 113,346 102 February .........: 22,130 22,855 103 132,792 136,201 103 March ............: 23,721 25,055 106 156,513 161,256 103 April ............: 23,378 24,675 106 179,891 185,931 103 May ..............: 23,893 25,082 105 203,784 211,013 104 June .............: 23,810 24,868 104 227,594 235,881 104 July .............: 24,872 26,410 106 252,466 262,291 104 August ...........: 23,946 23,545 98 276,412 285,836 103 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 26.2 million eggs by more than 2.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent. Reliability of September Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 2.0 3.5 405 2 1,861 14 10 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.9 1.6 130 0 672 15 7 : Net poult placements ..............: 2.0 3.4 324 7 1,195 16 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ................................... (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ............ (202) 720-4447 Cody Brokmeyer - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .. (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage ......................................... (202) 720-8784 LaKeya Jones - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Honey, Egg Products, Mink ............ (202) 720-0585 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ........................................... (202) 690-8632 Miste Salmon - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .................... 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