Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released January 15, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on January 1 Down 1 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on January 1, 2013, in the United States totaled 28.1 million, down 1 percent from January 1, 2012. Eggs in incubators were up 5 percent from the December 1, 2012 total of 26.7 million eggs. Poults Hatched During December Down 11 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during December 2012, in the United States totaled 22.0 million, down 11 percent from December 2011. Poults hatched were down 7 percent from the November 2012 total of 23.7 million poults. Net Poults Placed During December Down 12 Percent from Last Year The 21.1 million net poults placed during December 2012 in the United States were down 12 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net placements were down 9 percent from the November 2012 total of 23.2 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2011-2013 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2011-2012 :2012-2013 : :2011-2012 :2012-2013 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 28,072 26,366 94 23,157 21,429 93 October ..........: 27,170 27,015 99 22,423 23,292 104 November .........: 27,502 27,622 100 22,734 23,677 104 December .........: 28,741 26,700 93 24,812 22,020 89 January ..........: 28,308 28,144 99 24,463 February .........: 28,044 23,191 March ............: 29,039 25,234 April ............: 28,231 24,291 May ..............: 29,648 25,483 June .............: 30,385 25,021 July .............: 29,758 26,199 August ...........: 28,891 23,814 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2011-2013 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2011-2012 :2012-2013 : :2011-2012 :2012-2013 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ September ........: 22,320 20,848 93 22,320 20,848 93 October ..........: 21,407 23,067 108 43,727 43,915 100 November .........: 22,090 23,159 105 65,817 67,074 102 December .........: 23,893 21,115 88 89,710 88,189 98 January ..........: 23,636 113,346 February .........: 22,855 136,201 March ............: 25,055 161,256 April ............: 24,675 185,931 May ..............: 25,082 211,013 June .............: 24,868 235,881 July .............: 26,410 262,291 August ...........: 23,378 285,669 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.1 million eggs by more than 1.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.3 percent. Reliability of January Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 1.9 3.3 394 2 1,861 15 9 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.9 1.6 132 2 672 15 9 : Net poult placements ..............: 1.9 3.3 360 7 1,195 16 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ................................... (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ............ (202) 720-4447 Cody Brokmeyer - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .. (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage ......................................... (202) 720-8784 LaKeya Jones - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Honey, Mink .......................... (202) 720-0585 Dawn Keen - Egg Products ............................................. (202) 720-4448 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ........................................... (202) 690-8632 Miste Salmon - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .................... 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