Pou 3-2 (1-08) Turkeys Raised National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 4, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkeys Raised" call Toby Paterson at 202-720-0585, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Turkeys Raised in 2007 Up 4 Percent from 2006 Turkeys raised in the United States during 2007 totaled 272 million birds, up 4 percent from the 262 million raised in 2006. Minnesota ranked first in the number raised with 48.0 million, followed by North Carolina with 39.0 million, Arkansas with 31.0 million, Virginia with 22.0 million, Missouri with 20.0 million, California with 16.0 million, and Indiana with 15.3 million. These States accounted for 70 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2007. Turkey Growers Plan a 2 Percent Increase in 2008 Turkey growers in 23 States intend to increase the number of birds raised by 2 percent in 2008. These States produced over 99 percent of the turkeys raised in 2007. Intentions for the top seven producing States, compared with 2007, are as follows: Minnesota up 2 percent, North Carolina unchanged, Arkansas up 3 percent, Virginia up 2 percent, Missouri up 5 percent, California up 4 percent, and Indiana up 6 percent. The number of turkeys actually raised in 2008 may vary from growers' intentions shown in this report depending on feed costs, supply of hatching eggs, cost of poults, and prices growers receive for turkeys during the next few months. Turkeys: Number Raised in 2006 and 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 State :-----------------------------------------------: as % of : 2006 2/ : 2007 3/ : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : AR : 30,000 31,000 103 CA : 15,800 16,000 101 IL : 2,700 2,800 104 IN : 13,800 15,300 111 IA : 8,200 8,300 101 MD : 730 750 103 MA : 62 59 95 MI : 4,600 4,800 104 MN : 45,000 48,000 107 MO : 20,000 20,000 100 NJ : 33 39 118 NY : 630 640 102 NC : 37,500 39,000 104 ND : 1,800 1,900 106 OH : 5,100 5,100 100 PA : 10,500 11,000 105 SC : 9,600 10,500 109 SD : 4,200 4,500 107 VT : 55 51 93 VA : 21,500 22,000 102 WV : 3,600 3,500 97 : Other States 4/ : 27,050 26,450 98 : US 5/ : 262,460 271,689 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Based on turkeys placed September 1, 2005 through August 31, 2006. Excludes young turkeys lost. 3/ Based on turkeys placed September 1, 2006 through August 31, 2007. Excludes young turkeys lost. 4/ CO, KS, NE, OK, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosing individual operations. 5/ 28 State total. Turkeys: Death Loss by Geographic Region and United States, 2005-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Young Turkeys Lost as a Percent of Geographic : Total Poults Placed Region :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 1/ : 2006 1/ : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : East North Central : 11.0 12.8 13.1 West North Central : 11.0 12.4 13.0 North & South Atlantic 2/ : 9.2 8.9 9.8 South Central & West 2/ : 11.4 11.7 11.8 : US : 10.5 11.1 11.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Regional Listing North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI. West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD. South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV. South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX. West: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY. Turkeys: Number Raised in 2007 and Intentions for 2008, Selected States and 23 State Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 State :-----------------------------------------------: as % of : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : AR : 31,000 32,000 103 CA : 16,000 16,600 104 IL : 2,800 2,900 104 IN : 15,300 16,200 106 IA : 8,300 8,700 105 MI : 4,800 4,800 100 MN : 48,000 49,000 102 MO : 20,000 21,000 105 NC : 39,000 39,000 100 ND : 1,900 2,000 105 OH : 5,100 5,100 100 PA : 11,000 11,200 102 SC : 10,500 10,900 104 SD : 4,500 4,600 102 VA : 22,000 22,500 102 WV : 3,500 3,600 103 : Other States 1/ : 26,450 26,500 100 : 23 State Total : 270,150 276,600 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ CO, KS, NE, OK, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosing individual operations. Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent : Breeds : of : Total : of Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : Year : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent : Sep : 23,018 23,534 102 23,018 23,534 102 Oct : 21,633 24,891 115 44,651 48,425 108 Nov : 22,540 23,792 106 67,191 72,217 107 Dec : 24,329 23,879 98 91,520 96,096 105 Jan : 24,341 26,068 107 115,861 122,164 105 Feb : 23,473 24,249 103 139,334 146,413 105 Mar : 25,230 26,433 105 164,564 172,846 105 Apr : 24,212 26,040 108 188,776 198,886 105 May : 25,639 27,271 106 214,415 226,157 105 Jun : 26,002 26,277 101 240,417 252,434 105 Jul : 26,058 27,343 105 266,475 279,777 105 Aug : 25,693 26,523 103 292,168 306,300 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes imports and excludes exports. Reliability of Turkeys Raised Estimates Survey Procedures: Survey data for the turkeys raised estimates are collected from a list of contractors and independent growers during December. States use all known sources of producer names to ensure that the list is as complete as possible. Turkey producers are then contacted either by mail, telephone, or in person. Diligent effort is made to ensure that all operations are accounted for in the estimate. Estimation Procedures: Turkeys raised estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reached maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placements of turkey poults from the Monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the Turkey Inquiry Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised estimates are made in August and during the January annual time period. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery data, updated slaughter data, and import and export data received from the U.S. Census Bureau. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available, and no revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of known active producers, and therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the difference between intention estimates and the final raised estimates, in 23 select States over the past 10 years, is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current intentions estimate of 277 million turkeys by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. Reliability of Turkeys Raised Intention Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Years : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 -------- 1,000 ------- Number : Grower : Intentions : 1.7 3.0 8,199 4,048 900 7,650 4 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Darin Jantzi, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section....(202) 720-3570 David Colwell - Cold Storage................................(202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Egg Products, Poultry Slaughter, Catfish Processing, Mink.......................................(202) 690-3237 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey.(202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs..................................(202) 690-8632 Toby Paterson - Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised..............................(202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.