Pou 3-2 (8-08) Turkeys Raised National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 25, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkeys Raised" call Fleming Gibson at 202-690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Turkeys Raised Down Slightly from 2007 The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2008 is 271 million, down slightly from the number raised during 2007. The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2008: Minnesota, at 49.0 million turkeys, is up 2 percent from last year; North Carolina, at 39.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; Arkansas, at 31.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from a year ago; Virginia, at 21.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from 2007; Missouri, at 20.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; and Indiana, at 15.9 million turkeys, is up 5 percent from last year. Turkeys: Number Raised by State and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number Raised 1/ : 2008 State :-------------------------------------------------: as % of : 2007 2/ : 2008 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AR : 31,000 31,000 100 CA : 16,000 15,700 98 IL : 2,700 2,700 100 IN : 15,100 15,900 105 IA : 8,300 9,000 108 MD : 750 760 101 MA : 55 58 105 MI : 4,800 4,800 100 MN : 48,000 49,000 102 MO : 20,000 20,000 100 NJ : 39 35 90 NY : 640 630 98 NC : 39,000 39,000 100 ND : 1,700 1,200 71 OH : 5,200 5,200 100 PA : 11,500 11,500 100 SC : 10,500 10,500 100 SD : 4,500 4,600 102 VT : 51 51 100 VA : 21,000 21,000 100 WV : 3,500 3,500 100 : Oth Sts 3/ : 27,350 24,950 91 : US 4/ : 271,685 271,084 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes young turkeys lost. 2/ Revised. 3/ CO, KS, NE, OK, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosing individual operations. 4/ 28 State total. Reliability of Turkeys Raised Estimates Data Sources: The monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provides the basis for the preliminary turkeys raised estimates published in August. Turkey hatchery estimates are made in 18 States each month and provide the number of eggs in incubators, poults hatched, and net poults placed in production. United States import and export data are included in the preliminary estimates for turkeys raised. Estimation Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reach maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the December Growers Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised estimates are made in August. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one half of one percent of the final estimate published in January. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the five year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after five- year census data revisions have been published. Reliability: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates are based on a census of known active hatcheries and, therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 271 million turkeys by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Reliability of August Turkeys Raised Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Years : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 -------- 1,000 ------- Number : Number : Raised : 1.2 2.3 6,167 2,753 9 5,560 4 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section.....(202) 720-4447 David Colwell - Cold Storage................................(202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised..............................(202) 690-3237 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey.....................................(202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs..................................(202) 690-8632 Toby Paterson - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink..........................(202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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