We 1 (4-02) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 2, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Mark E. Miller at (202)720-7621, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 89, No. 14 March 24 - 30, 2002 For additional information, call (202) 720-7917. Highlights: A late-week storm system traversed the South, causing fieldwork delays and triggering additional lowland flooding from northeastern Texas to southern portions of the Ohio Valley. Farther east, mostly light showers dampened the southern Atlantic region, leaving enough topsoil moisture for pasture and winter grain development and summer crop germination, but having little effect on long-term precipitation deficits and subsoil moisture shortages. However, significant precipitation fell in the middle and northern Atlantic States, providing some relief from long-term drought. Meanwhile in the Midwest, soil moisture remained slightly short across the western Corn Belt, but was adequate to locally excessive in the Ohio Valley, where cool weather (as much as 10 degrees F below normal) continued to slow winter wheat development. Temperatures also averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal on the northern High Plains, although breezy, occasionally mild weather melted much of the dormant winter wheat crop's protective snow cover. Farther south, dry, breezy conditions and temperature oscillations continued to stress wheat and limit crop development in a broad area centered on southwestern Kansas. However, the southernmost Plains (south of the Texas Panhandle) remained favorably wet, courtesy of two significant rainfall events in less than 2 weeks. Mostly dry weather accompanied a warming trend in the West, where most of the northwestern half of the region has favorable high-elevation snow packs and spring runoff prospects. Meanwhile in southern California and the Four Corners region, ranges and dryland crops continued to suffer from a lack of cold-season precipitation, while meager snow packs in the central and southern Rockies and the Southwest maintained water-supply concerns. Prior to midweek, widespread precipitation fell across the interior Northwest, portions of the central Plains, and throughout the East. In northeastern Oregon, 1.09 inches of rain soaked Meacham (southeast of Pendleton) on March 24, capping a month that featured precipitation totaling 4.32 inches (279 percent of normal). Elsewhere in the Northwest, daily-record totals for March 24 included 0.91 inch in Pullman, WA, and 0.72 inch in Lewiston, ID. Meanwhile on the Plains, March 24-25 snowfall totaled 6.2 inches in Goodland, KS, and 7.6 inches in Lincoln, NE. Farther east, heavy rain returned to the lower Ohio Valley, where Paducah, KY (2.98 inches), notched a daily-record total for March 25. A day later, beneficial precipitation spread into the Northeast, resulting in daily-record totals in locations such as Williamsport, PA (1.91 inches), and Albany, NY (1.49 inches). Heavy snow was noted from the Midwest into the Northeast, including Maine, where March 26-27 totals reached 12.5 inches in Caribou and 6.8 inches in Bangor. Elsewhere, March 26-27 snowfall included 10.2 inches in Cleveland, OH, and 6.2 inches in Fort Wayne, IN. A very wintry spell continued on Michigan's Upper Peninsula, where Marquette's March and season-to-date snowfall climbed to record totals of 83.1 and 300.6 inches, respectively. Farther south, warm, dry weather prevailed in Florida, where Orlando noted a daily-record high (89 degrees F) on March 26 and closed the month with rainfall totaling 0.52 inch (15 percent of normal). Ft. Myers, FL, also experienced extremely dry conditions during March (0.19 inch, or 7 percent of normal), capped by daily-record warmth (90 degrees F on March 29) near month's end. Meanwhile, warmth also developed across the West, resulting in consecutive daily-record highs on March 29-30 in Red Bluff, CA (86 and 88 degrees F). In contrast, cold weather lingered on the northern High Plains, where Great Falls, MT, set March records with low temperatures below 0 degrees F on 12 days (previously 10 days in 1912), and high temperatures below 32 degrees F on 15 days (previously 15 days in 1951 and 1965). It was also the coldest March on record in Great Falls, with an average temperature of 17.4 degrees F (16.0 degrees F below normal). Heavy rain returned to the South at week's end, producing daily-record totals for March 30 in locations such as Texarkana, AR (2.11 inches), Monroe, LA (1.76 inches), Abilene, TX (1.40 inches), and Lubbock, TX (0.88 inch). The precipitation in Lubbock boosted the monthly total to 2.15 inches (282 percent of normal), their ninth-wettest March on record. Just to the north, however, Dodge City, KS, received only 0.29 inch (16 percent of normal) during March, leaving their October 2001 - March 2002 total at 1.50 inches (26 percent). Meanwhile, the lower Ohio River remained above flood stage for much of the week due to runoff from earlier downpours, but began to recede by week's end. On the morning of March 28, the Ohio River stood 5.6 feet above flood stage at Newburgh Dam, near Evansville, IN, and 6.8 feet above flood stage in Cairo, IL. Heavy rain fell across the western Hawaiian islands, especially Kauai, early in the week. In Kokee, Kauai, weekly rainfall totaled 10.46 inches, including 5.93 inches in 24 hours on March 24-25. Elsewhere on Kauai, Lihue netted a daily-record total (3.06 inches) on March 25. Meanwhile, a mostly dry month came to an end across Alaska. March precipitation totals included 3.18 inches (28 percent of normal) in Yakutat and 0.07 inch (9 percent) in McGrath. Only 2.2 inches of snow fell during March in Fairbanks, AK, leaving their season-to-date total at 31.9 inches (49 percent of normal). For the fifth consecutive week, Alaskan temperature patterns were consistent, featuring mild weather across northern and western areas (up to 8 degrees F above normal), and cool weather elsewhere. National Agricultural Summary March 25 - 31, 2002 Highlights: Heavy rain flooded streams and prevented fieldwork throughout most of the lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee River Valleys. Rain also delayed fieldwork in parts of the southern Great Plains and interior areas of the Southeast. Meanwhile, light showers and above-normal temperatures stimulated development of winter grains and forages along the eastern Gulf Coast, as well as adjacent areas of the interior Southeast and Atlantic Coastal Plains. The warm weather also promoted fruit set in Florida's citrus groves. Dry weather prevailed over most of the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and Great Lakes region, but cold weather limited small grain seeding. In the Pacific Northwest, warm weather supported planting of small grains, but some isolated areas experienced rain delays. In the Southwest, dry weather aided field and orchard work and favorably warm weather stimulated growth of winter crops and flowering of fruit and nut crops. Winter Wheat: One percent of the Nation's winter wheat has entered the heading stage, equal to this date last year but slightly behind the 5-year average of 2 percent. Warm weather promoted growth in the Southeast and Southwest, while cold air prevented development in most areas of the Great Plains and Corn Belt. Development was most advanced in California and Texas, where 15 and 7 percent, respectively, was headed. A few fields emerged from dormancy in the central Great Plains and southern Corn Belt, despite the cold weather. However, many fields in the Great Plains suffered due to severe moisture shortages, and fields in the Ohio Valley experienced unfavorably wet conditions. Cotton: Four percent of the acreage was planted, slightly behind last year's 5 percent but equal to the 5-year average. In Texas, field preparations and planting continued where temperatures and topsoil moisture supplies were adequate. Emergence of earlier planted fields was mostly satisfactory. A few fields were planted in California and other fields were prepared for planting. Warm, dry weather supported fieldwork and planting in Arizona. Heavy rain prevented field tillage in the lower Mississippi Valley, while mostly dry weather aided field preparations in the Southeast. Planting normally begins in the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast near mid-April. Small grains: Spring wheat was 1 percent planted, equal to last year's pace but slightly behind the 2-percent average for this date. Dry weather and near-normal temperatures provided favorable planting conditions in central Washington, while cooler, wetter conditions limited progress in eastern Washington and Idaho. At the end of the week, planting exceeded the 5-year average in Washington, but lagged behind normal in Idaho. Cold weather delayed planting in Minnesota, Montana, and South Dakota. The barley acreage was 2 percent seeded, behind last year's 3 percent and the 5-year average of 4 percent. Planting progressed behind normal in Idaho and Washington, partly due to cold weather. Wet topsoils and strong winds also delayed fieldwork and contributed to slow planting in eastern Washington and adjacent areas of Idaho. Cold weather prevented planting in Minnesota. Four percent of the oat acreage was seeded, ahead of last year's 3 percent but slightly behind the 5-year average. Dry weather favored seedbed preparation across the northern Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains, but cool weather delayed planting progress in most areas. In Pennsylvania, planting exceeded the 5-year average, despite late-week rain delays. Rice: Nine percent of the rice crop was planted, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Planting continued in Texas, and was nearly 2 weeks ahead of normal, despite moisture shortages in most areas. Some flushing was also in progress to aid in securing a good stand. Planting was less advanced in Louisiana, but remained ahead of normal, in spite of widespread rain delays. Wet weather also delayed planting in interior areas of the Mississippi Delta. Sorghum: Twelve percent of the sorghum acreage was planted, compared with 10 percent at this time last year and 1 percentage point behind the average for this date. In Texas, seedbed preparation continued and planting remained ahead of normal. However, rain and wet soils slowed progress in some areas, and soils were too dry for planting in other areas. Emergence was spotty and uneven in many fields due to moisture shortages. Other crops: Less than 1 percent of the sugarbeet acreage was planted in the four major sugarbeet-producing States, behind last year and the average of 1 and 3 percent, respectively. Cold weather and wet soils limited progress to 2 percent in Idaho, where 14 percent would normally be planted by this date. In the Red River Valley, the planting season normally begins after mid-April. Winter Wheat: Percent Headed, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 NA 0 2 CA : 15 NA 9 15 CO : 0 NA 0 0 ID : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 0 NA 0 0 IN : 0 NA 0 0 KS : 0 NA 0 0 MI : 0 NA 0 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 MT : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 0 NA 0 0 NC : 5 NA 0 6 OH : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 0 NA 0 3 OR : 0 NA 0 0 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 7 NA 7 6 WA : 0 NA 0 0 : 18 Sts: 1 NA 1 2 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 0 NA 0 0 AZ : 15 NA 13 14 AR : 0 NA 0 0 CA : 3 NA 13 8 GA : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 0 NA 0 0 MS : 0 NA 0 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NC : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 0 NA 0 0 SC : 0 NA 0 0 TN : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 8 NA 10 8 VA : 0 NA 0 0 : 14 Sts: 4 NA 5 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 2 NA 7 14 MN : 0 NA 0 1 MT : 0 NA 1 1 ND : 0 NA 0 0 SD : 1 NA 1 5 WA : 25 NA 17 19 : 6 Sts : 1 NA 1 2 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 98% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 1 NA 9 11 MN : 0 NA 0 1 MT : 1 NA 1 1 ND : 0 NA 0 0 WA : 11 NA 12 15 : 5 Sts : 2 NA 3 4 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 78% of last year's barley acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 12 NA 0 15 MN : 0 NA 0 1 NE : 15 NA 4 24 ND : 0 NA 0 0 OH : 6 NA 7 12 PA : 10 NA 1 4 SD : 0 NA 0 4 WI : 1 NA 0 2 : 8 Sts : 4 NA 1 5 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 49% of last year's oat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 NA 2 2 CO : 0 NA 0 0 IL : 0 NA 0 0 KS : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 2 NA 0 0 MO : 0 NA 0 0 NE : 0 NA 0 0 NM : 0 NA 0 0 OK : 0 NA 0 0 SD : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 35 NA 29 31 : 11 Sts: 12 NA 10 11 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 NA 1 1 CA : 0 NA 0 0 LA : 36 NA 28 29 MS : 0 NA 1 2 MO : 0 NA 0 0 TX : 45 NA 21 22 : 6 Sts : 9 NA 7 7 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Mar 31,:Mar 24,:Mar 31,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 2 NA 5 14 MI : 0 NA 0 3 MN : 0 NA 0 0 ND : 0 NA 0 0 : 4 Sts : 0 NA 1 3 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 81% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 4 21 34 34 7 CA : 0 0 5 95 0 CO : 11 24 46 18 1 ID : 0 5 19 74 2 IL : 0 1 31 56 12 IN : 2 8 35 45 10 KS : 16 25 34 23 2 MI : 1 9 40 40 10 MO : 1 4 37 53 5 MT : 30 30 31 8 1 NE : 2 13 53 31 1 NC : 0 5 24 61 10 OH : 3 9 39 41 8 OK : 29 26 28 15 2 OR : 15 17 23 39 6 SD : 2 18 38 40 2 TX : 27 22 32 18 1 WA : 0 2 39 53 6 : 18 Sts : 15 20 34 28 3 : Prev Wk : NA NA NA NA NA Prev Yr : 6 14 36 39 5 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" National Summary that is released at 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are then subject to revision the following week. The next "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" report will be released after 12 p.m. ET on April 9, 2002. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http:/www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION There are two options for subscribing via e-mail. All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 1) Starting with the NASS Home Page at http:/www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. 2) If you do NOT have Internet access, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.