We 1 (4-02) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 23, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Mark E. Miller at (202)720-7621, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 89, No. 17 April 14 - 20, 2002 For additional information, call (202) 720-7917. HIGHLIGHTS: The contrast between cold air across the Northwest and an early-season record heat wave in the Midwest, South, and East sharpened during the week, resulting in temperatures that averaged as much as 9 deg F below normal in southern Montana and up to 22 deg F above normal in southern New Jersey. Readings in the 90s deg F were common throughout the Atlantic Coastal Plains and in much of the western Corn Belt and southern half of the Great Plains. The large differences between the two air masses triggered numerous severe weather outbreaks during midweek, mainly in the central States. Meanwhile, beneficial precipitation fell in several areas, including the northern Plains, upper and middle Mississippi Valley, and much of the East, but unfavorably dry, windy weather persisted in a broad area from the Southwest into the central High Plains. In the Northwest, showers aided dryland small grains, but cool weather slowed crop development. Meanwhile, cooler weather eased irrigation demands across the Southwest. Farther east, beneficial rain and snow provided much-needed moisture for drought-stressed small grains on the northern Plains, although the return of cold weather slowed crop development. However, significant precipitation bypassed the driest areas of north-central Montana. Elsewhere, little rain fell in primary winter wheat areas on the central and southern Plains, excluding locally heavy thunderstorms on April 16-17 and again at week's end. In addition, gusty winds caused local soil erosion and blowing dust, particularly across western Kansas. Warm weather for much of the week fostered an acceleration of fieldwork, including corn planting, across the Midwest. Planting also progressed northward, as rising soil temperatures accompanied the unusual warmth. Although beneficial rains dampened topsoils across the upper Midwest and western Corn Belt, subsoils remained dry, especially in the latter area. In the South, summer-like conditions promoted winter grain development and corn, cotton, sorghum, and rice planting and emergence. However, late-week showers brought renewed fieldwork delays to portions of the interior South, primarily from northeastern Texas to the lower Ohio Valley. In contrast, heat and diminishing soil moisture reserves began to stress crops and pastures in the middle and southern Atlantic States, although there was a beneficial increase in showery activity toward week's end. An upper-air trough of low pressure brought chilly and unsettled weather to the northwestern quarter of the Nation, producing late-season snows that blanketed portions of the interior Northwest, including Pocatello, ID, and Billings, MT. Pocatello received 9.0 inches in less than 24 hours on April 15-16, becoming their biggest April storm since 10.0 inches fell on April 25-26, 1976, and largest accumulation for any 24-hour period since 10.8 inches fell on December 25, 1988. On Friday, Pocatello received an additional 0.39 inches of precipitation, an April 19 record. Billings netted 14.3 inches of snow from April 15-18, containing 1.75 inches of liquid equivalent. During the preceding 196 days (October 1, 2001 - April 14, 2002), Billings' precipitation totaled just 2.23 inches (37 percent of normal). Farther west, several daily-record lows were established. On April 18, records included 37 deg F in Sacramento, CA, 12 deg F in Ely, NV, and a low maximum of 39 deg F at Reno, NV. By Friday, frigid air dove southward into the northern and central High Plains and Rockies behind a cold front, setting record lows at Dickinson, ND (9 deg F), and Pueblo, CO (24 deg F). By the weekend, highs struggled to reach the 40s deg F and 50s deg F in the upper Midwest, whereas a few days earlier, 80s deg F and 90s deg F were common. In contrast, more than 300 daily-record highs and 10 monthly records were set or tied across the Plains, Midwest, South, and East during April 14-20. With a strong Bermuda high extending westward over the Southeast, temperatures soared to levels normally seen during August. Record heat began to build in the central Great Plains on Sunday, including 91 deg F at Dodge City, KS. By Monday, the heat expanded northeastward, raising temperatures above 95 deg F as far north as Sioux City, IA (96 deg F), breaking the former 1898 record by 11 deg F, while Stevens Point, WI, posted an April record-tying high of 90 deg F. The warmth spread to the East Coast by Tuesday, with at least 88 daily record highs set on April 16, including tied April record maximums at Flint (87 deg F) and Alpena, MI (90 deg F), and the earliest 90 deg F and 85 deg F readings at Newark, NJ, and St. Johnsbury, VT, respectively. Summer-like heat baked the East Coast on Wednesday, including April records at Washington/Dulles Airport, VA (93 deg F), Atlantic City, NJ (94 deg F), Philadelphia, PA, and Washington/National, DC (95 deg F), New York/Central Park, NY (96 deg F), and Newark, NJ (97 deg F). The 90s deg F reached well into New England, including Concord, NH (94 deg F), Boston, MA (93 deg F), Albany, NY (91 deg F), their earliest 90 deg F reading, and Burlington, VT (90 deg F). Meanwhile, unseasonable warmth began to expand southward into the Southeast (91 deg F at Raleigh-Durham, NC). Not much changed on Thursday as record warmth persisted across the Midwest, East, and Southeast, where at least 44 locations set or tied record highs for April 18. Moline, IL, hit 91 deg F, the second 90 deg F+ reading this April which has occurred only once before (in 1930). A mark of 87 deg F at Ft. Wayne, IN, made it 4 consecutive days with record highs. Little Rock, AR's 91 deg F was the earliest date of 90 deg F since 1974, and the first in April since 1987. Finally by Friday, an approaching cold front and increasing clouds and showers diminished the number of record highs in the Midwest and Northeast, but not before more than two dozen stations, mainly in the Southeast, established record maximums. As the front pushed farther south and east by the weekend, only a handful of Southeast locations hit record highs on Saturday, but that included a record April maximum at Charleston, SC (95 deg F). The sharply contrasting air masses, cold and unsettled in the Northwest, and warm and humid east of the Rockies, triggered numerous strong and severe thunderstorms in the Nation's midsection. As colder air slowly pushed out of the Northwest into the central Great Plains, thunderstorms enhanced an already breezy weather pattern. On the evening of April 16, little rain accompanied a thunderstorm gust front across western Kansas and southern Nebraska, resulting in a dust storm. Northwesterly wind gusts were clocked to 58 mph in Grand Island, NE, 54 mph in Hill City, KS, and 52 mph in McCook, NE. By midweek, a low-pressure center and trailing cold front slowly tracked into the northern Great Plains, generating over 165 and 180 reports of severe weather (large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes) from Texas northward into Minnesota, on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. On April 18, however, conditions peaked for severe weather development in the western Corn Belt and upper Midwest, where at least 380 reports of severe weather were tabulated. In addition, flash flooding hit parts of northern Wisconsin, where 3.88 inches inundated Rhinelander, WI, by Friday morning, while heavy rains falling on melting snow pack produced localized flooding in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. As the front moved eastward during the weekend, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over drought-stricken areas of the East, but amounts were generally light, providing little if any relief. A deeply entrenched weather pattern began to break down across Alaska, bringing some relief from nearly 2 months of cold, dry conditions in southern and eastern portions of the State. In McGrath, where precipitation totaled only 0.13 inch (11 percent of normal) from March 1 - April 17, a daily-record amount of 0.36 inch (5.5 inches of snow) fell on April 18. Nevertheless, significant short-term precipitation deficits persisted in southern Alaska. For example, March 1-April 18 totals included 3.72 inches (19 percent of normal) in Yakutat and 1.45 inches (28 percent) in Juneau. Meanwhile in Hawaii, warm, dry weather yielded to mid- to late-week showers due to the approach and passage of a cold front. Some of the heavier 24-hour rainfall totals during April 18-19 included 1.25 inches at Hanalei, Kauai, and 1.23 inches at St. Stephens, Oahu, while April 20-21 amounts reached 1.69 inches at Princeville, Kauai, and 2.00 inches at Manoa, Oahu. National Agricultural Summary April 15 - 21, 2002 Highlights: Record-high temperatures prompted an acceleration in fieldwork and planting activity across the eastern two-thirds of the Nation. The abnormally hot weather also stimulated development of winter grains and promoted emergence and growth of early-planted row crops. Meanwhile, below-normal temperatures hindered crop development and limited planting in the northern Great Plains, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Southwest. Rain delays were brief across most of the Corn Belt, although lingering moisture surpluses limited fieldwork and planting in Indiana and Ohio, and strong late-week storms prematurely ended the work week in Missouri and Illinois. With few exceptions, dry weather supported field preparations and planting in the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Corn: Planting advanced to 13 percent complete, compared with 9 percent on this date last year and the 5-year average of 10 percent. Planting accelerated in the central and western Corn Belt, where dry weather and record warmth prevailed most of the week. Planting was 10 days ahead of normal in Missouri, even though late-week storms halted progress in most areas. A few fields were planted in the eastern Corn Belt, but excessive moisture prevented fieldwork in many areas of Indiana and Ohio. Wet soils also limited planting along the Ohio River Valley, but delays were not as widespread. Nearly ideal conditions supported rapid planting progress in North Carolina and Tennessee. Winter Wheat: Nine percent of the Nation's winter wheat has headed, equal to last year's pace but behind the 5-year average of 12 percent. Hot weather accelerated progress across most of the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. More than one-third of the Arkansas crop and nearly one-fifth of the North Carolina acreage headed during the week. Development was most advanced in the Southwest, where 75 percent of California's crop has headed, despite cooler-than-normal weather during the past week. Cold weather continued to hinder growth in the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains, especially in Montana, where 30 percent of the crop was still dormant. Meanwhile, abnormally hot weather accelerated vegetative growth in the central Great Plains and Corn Belt, although jointing remains behind normal in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana, and Ohio. A few fields were headed in Illinois and Missouri. Cotton: Planting advanced to 15 percent complete, compared with 11 percent on this date last year and the 5-year average of 12 percent. Planting remained active in the Southwest, despite cooler-than-normal weather in California. Above-normal temperatures and mostly dry weather aided planting in the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Planting was most active in Alabama. In Texas, planting moved northward as soil temperatures and moisture supplies permitted. Small grains: Spring wheat was 12 percent planted, nearly 1 week ahead of last year's 6 percent but behind the 15-percent average for this date. Planting rapidly accelerated in South Dakota, as dry weather and above-normal temperatures supported progress most of the week. Planting remained active in the Pacific Northwest, but Idaho's progress lagged well behind normal. Planting began in Minnesota and slowly gained momentum in Montana and North Dakota. Barley progressed to 16 percent planted, slightly ahead of last year's 15 percent but behind the 5-year average of 20 percent. Planting remained most active in the interior Pacific Northwest and adjacent northern High Plains, even though below-normal temperatures limited progress. Locally heavy precipitation also limited progress in Idaho. Planting began in Minnesota and North Dakota, where temperatures averaged above normal. The oat crop was 32 percent seeded, more than 1 week ahead of last year's slow progress, but only 2 days ahead of the average for this date. Emergence, at 9 percent, equaled the 5-year average for this date, but exceeded last year's 3-percent pace by nearly 1 week. Planting was active across the northern and western Corn Belt, especially in Iowa, where nearly one-third of the acreage was seeded during the week. Rain and wet soils limited progress in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Abnormally warm weather and favorable topsoil moisture aided rapid emergence and growth in Iowa and Nebraska. Rice: Forty-one percent of the crop has been planted, and 22 percent has emerged. Planting trailed last year's rapid 46-percent pace, but exceeded the 36-percent average for this date. Emergence was 2 percentage points ahead of last year and nearly 1 week ahead of normal. Planting continued without interruptions along the western Gulf Coast and quickly accelerated in the interior Mississippi Delta. Arkansas producers seeded nearly one-third of their acreage during the week. Hot weather and adequate topsoil moisture supplies promoted rapid germination and emergence. Sorghum: Planting progressed to 18 percent complete, slightly ahead of last year and the average of 15 and 16 percent, respectively. Planting was very active in the lower Mississippi Valley, where hot, dry weather supported progress. Field preparations and planting steadily advanced in Texas. A few fields have been planted in the Corn Belt. Other crops: Sugarbeet planting, at 20 percent complete, matched last year's pace but trailed the 5-year average of 27 percent. Michigan growers planted more than one-third of their acreage during the week, but progress remained behind normal. In the Red River Valley, the planting pace increased, as warm, dry weather prevailed most of the week. Rain limited progress in Idaho. Winter Wheat: Percent Headed, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 37 2 29 52 CA : 75 60 75 79 CO : 0 0 0 1 ID : 0 0 0 0 IL : 1 0 0 0 IN : 0 0 0 0 KS : 0 0 0 0 MI : 0 0 0 0 MO : 6 0 1 3 MT : 0 0 0 0 NE : 0 0 0 0 NC : 35 16 28 32 OH : 0 0 5 6 OK : 18 *3 13 23 OR : 0 0 0 0 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 22 13 32 32 WA : 0 0 0 0 : 18 Sts: 9 4 9 12 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Corn: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 1 3 5 IL : 18 1 17 14 IN : 2 0 10 7 IA : 12 1 1 3 KS : 26 11 22 20 KY : 30 17 45 34 MI : 1 0 0 1 MN : 3 0 0 4 MO : 52 26 22 30 NE : 8 1 2 4 NC : 60 33 57 57 ND : 0 0 0 1 OH : 2 2 3 6 PA : 7 1 0 2 SD : 1 0 0 1 TN : 63 25 63 53 TX : 66 59 48 59 WI : 0 0 0 1 : 18 Sts: 13 4 9 10 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 93% of last year's corn acreage. Cotton: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 22 9 13 17 AZ : 53 37 51 47 AR : 6 0 2 2 CA : 50 35 43 49 GA : 12 6 5 8 LA : 9 0 10 8 MS : 5 0 8 5 MO : 10 1 4 3 NC : 7 *1 2 5 OK : 0 0 1 2 SC : 14 5 3 7 TN : 1 0 4 3 TX : 16 13 13 14 VA : 6 0 6 3 : 14 Sts: 15 9 11 12 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 14 States planted 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 51 18 59 34 CO : 0 0 0 0 IL : 0 0 0 0 KS : 0 0 0 0 LA : 24 8 18 22 MO : 4 0 3 2 NE : 0 0 0 0 NM : 0 0 0 0 OK : 4 2 7 4 SD : 0 0 0 0 TX : 45 43 38 43 : 11 Sts: 18 16 15 16 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Rice: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 41 10 53 33 CA : 2 1 0 2 LA : 78 69 68 74 MS : 19 3 41 40 MO : 5 2 9 7 TX : 90 85 75 61 : 6 Sts : 41 22 46 36 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Rice: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 12 0 12 5 CA : 0 0 0 0 LA : 66 52 51 56 MS : 3 0 24 10 MO : 0 0 1 1 TX : 75 60 56 42 : 6 Sts : 22 12 20 15 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 100% of last year's rice acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 55 49 61 71 MI : 40 2 55 50 MN : 5 0 0 9 ND : 5 1 0 8 : 4 Sts : 20 9 20 27 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States planted 81% of last year's sugarbeet acreage. Spring Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 40 31 40 53 MN : 3 0 0 8 MT : 4 1 7 16 ND : 5 1 0 5 SD : 39 9 5 33 WA : 70 58 64 70 : 6 Sts : 12 5 6 15 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States planted 98% of last year's spring wheat acreage. Barley: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 37 30 35 40 MN : 4 0 0 6 MT : 10 4 13 19 ND : 2 0 0 3 WA : 50 41 48 57 : 5 Sts : 16 11 15 20 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 5 States planted 78% of last year's barley acreage. Oats: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 93 61 26 59 MN : 20 2 0 19 NE : 82 60 49 66 ND : 2 1 0 3 OH : 26 12 57 65 PA : 45 *35 13 40 SD : 28 8 1 27 WI : 29 6 7 26 : 8 Sts : 32 17 11 28 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 8 States planted 49% of last year's oat acreage. Oats: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Apr 21,:Apr 14,:Apr 21,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : IA : 35 3 1 20 MN : 1 0 0 3 NE : 44 15 11 30 ND : 0 0 0 0 OH : 11 2 37 33 PA : 18 12 5 20 SD : 1 0 0 5 WI : 3 0 0 3 : 8 Sts: 9 2 3 9 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 8 States planted 49% of last year's oat acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 3 15 34 42 6 CA : 0 0 5 90 5 CO : 19 21 46 13 1 ID : 0 7 19 65 9 IL : 0 2 21 57 20 IN : 1 7 31 48 13 KS : 15 23 36 23 3 MI : 1 3 29 57 10 MO : 1 6 31 54 8 MT : 36 28 29 7 0 NE : 9 21 40 29 1 NC : 0 4 30 62 4 OH : 2 5 25 53 15 OK : 23 18 30 26 3 OR : 20 20 31 24 5 SD : 2 13 34 45 6 TX : 25 22 31 20 2 WA : 1 2 35 53 9 : 18 Sts : 15 18 32 31 4 : Prev Wk : 15 18 33 30 4 Prev Yr : 7 15 34 38 6 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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