We 1 (10-02) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 29, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Mark E. Miller at (202)720-7621, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 89, No. 44 October 20 - 26, 2002 For additional information, call (202) 720-7917. Highlights: An active storm track across the South and cold air arriving from the North combined to produce a variety of weather conditions across the Nation. Snow, freezing rain, and rain fell across the southern half of the Plains, aiding pastures and winter grains but slowing fieldwork, increasing stress on livestock, and threatening unharvested cotton. In contrast, cold weather (weekly readings ranged from 8 to 20 degrees F below normal) and dry soils halted winter wheat development from western Nebraska northward into Montana, where very low temperatures (0 to 20 degrees F) burned back some recently emerged wheat. Cold weather also spread into the Northwest, where soil moisture shortages continued to limit wheat establishment. Elsewhere in the West, cool, dry weather favored autumn fieldwork. In contrast, very heavy rain (4 inches or more) fell in the western Gulf Coast region, halting fieldwork and causing local flooding. Farther east, rain caused some additional cotton and soybean harvest delays in the southern Delta, but favorably dry weather allowed for fieldwork to resume in parts of the northern Delta. Farther east, sporadic rainfall in the Atlantic Coast States hampered fieldwork but further eased long-term drought. In the upper Midwest, cold weather (6 to 14 degrees F below normal) and light rain and snow showers maintained soggy field conditions for corn and soybean harvesting. Meanwhile across the southern and eastern Corn Belt, occasional showers slowed fieldwork but benefited emerging winter wheat. The season's first significant snow fell on October 21-22 across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region. Several locations received consecutive daily-snowfall records, including Marquette, MI (7.5 and 5.5 inches), and Watertown, SD (3.0 inches on both days). In Wisconsin, daily-record totals on Monday included 7.8 inches in Wausau and 6.0 inches in Rhinelander. By October 23, precipitation spread into the Northeast, where snowfall included 1.0 inch in Worcester, MA, and 0.5 inch in Albany, NY, and returned to the Plains and Midwest. Through week's end, month-to-date snowfall included 6.6 inches in Sioux City, IA, 5.8 inches in North Platte, NE, and 5.4 inches in Bismarck, ND. In addition, record-low high temperatures were established on 3 consecutive days (October 22-24) in several locations, including Grand Island, NE (35, 30, and 32 degrees F), and Sioux City (36, 32, and 33 degrees F). Meanwhile, October 23-24 high temperatures remained at or below the freezing mark (32 degrees F) as far south as southwestern Kansas, contributing to an early-season ice storm on the central Plains. Farther south, several rounds of heavy rain pushed October precipitation totals toward record levels. Late in the week, remnant moisture from the eastern Pacific Hurricane Kenna contributed to excessive totals. In Texas, October 1-27 rainfall reached 9.08 inches (260 percent of normal) in Austin-Bergstrom, 7.58 inches (223 percent) in San Antonio, and 7.40 inches (411 percent) in Del Rio. In Del Rio, only 2 other years, 1930 (11.69 inches) and 1969 (11.33 inches), featured higher October totals. Monthly rainfall topped 8 inches as far north as Wichita, KS, where the 8.01-inch total through October 27 was 369 percent of normal and second only to a 9.42-inch sum in October 1998. A few locations on the northern Plains, including Dickinson, ND (3 and 2 degrees F), and Glasgow, MT (2 and 11 degrees F), noted consecutive daily-record lows on October 22 and 23. During the second half of the week, the coldest air, relative to normal, shifted into the northern Rockies and the Northwest, resulting in nearly 100 daily-record lows. Porthill, ID (19, 18, and 19 degrees F), and Quincy, WA (20, 19, and 19 degrees F), were among several stations to close the week with 3 consecutive daily-record lows. In contrast, Miami, FL, ended the week with consecutive daily-record highs of 89 degrees F. Drier weather returned to Hawaii, following the previous week's downpours from Kauai to Maui. Only scattered windward locations, including Oahu's Manoa Lyon Arboretum (1.73 inches in 48 hours from October 23-25), received weekly rainfall in excess of 1 inch. Meanwhile, weekly temperatures averaged up to 18 degrees F above normal across interior Alaska, although significant precipitation was confined to the southern half of the State. On Friday, Alaskan daily-record highs included 45 degrees F in McGrath and 50 degrees F in King Salmon. Alaskan month-to-date precipitation totals through October 27 included 14.94 inches (202 percent of normal) in Kodiak and 4.20 inches (230 percent) in Anchorage, while snowfall was well above normal in locations such as McGrath (14.4 inches, or 150 percent) and Fairbanks (14.7 inches, or 135 percent). More than 40 percent of McGrath's snow, 5.8 inches, fell on October 20. National Agricultural Summary October 21 - 27, 2002 Highlights: Cold weather slowed hard red winter wheat emergence and growth in the Great Plains, while mild daytime temperatures and light showers stimulated quick emergence of the soft red winter wheat in the Corn Belt. The precipitation in the Corn Belt was widespread and interrupted the corn and soybean harvests in most areas, but delays brief. Elsewhere, heavy precipitation extended harvest delays in the southern Great Plains and coastal areas of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The cotton harvest was affected most and fell further behind normal. However, mostly dry weather supported harvest progress along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and interior areas of the Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Corn: Harvest advanced to 66 percent complete, 4 percentage points more than this date last year but about 4 days behind the 74-percent average for this date. Light precipitation interferred with harvest across much of the Corn Belt, but delays were mostly brief. As a result, growers in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio harvested about one-fifth of their acreage during the week. Meanwhile, rain delays were virtually nonexistent on the central and northern Great Plains, allowing producers in Colorado and North Dakota to match the rapid pace set in the Corn Belt. In Minnesota, progress remained far behind normal, despite rapid progress during the week. Soybeans: Harvest progressed to 84 percent complete, compared with last year's 80-percent pace and the 5-year average of 87 percent. Mostly dry weather supported harvest in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and interior Mississippi Valley, although many areas experienced brief delays. Harvest approached completion well ahead of normal in Michigan and slightly ahead of normal in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri. Meanwhile, progress lagged along the Ohio River Valley and upper Mississippi River Valley, especially in Wisconsin. Elsewhere, harvest lagged slightly behind normal in the central and northern Great Plains and well behind normal in the lower Mississippi Valley. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 48 percent, but trailed last year's 58-percent pace and the 5-year average of 61 percent. Wet weather further delayed harvest in many areas. The longest delays were in the southern High Plains and western Gulf Coast, including coastal areas of the Mississippi Delta. In the Southeast, lengthy delays were mostly confined to scattered areas along the eastern Gulf Coast, while the Atlantic Coastal Plain and interior areas of the Southeast experienced shorter delays. In the interior Mississippi Delta, dry weather prevailed, but harvest ramained slow in most areas due to lingering moisture surpluses. Arkansas producers led the harvest pace, picking 20 percent of their acreage during the week. Harvest progressed ahead of normal in the Southwest, advancing 15 and 13 percentage points in California and Arizona, respectively. Winter wheat: Eighty-nine percent of the acreage was planted, and 74 percent was emerged. Planting and emergence matched last year's pace and exceeded the 5-year averages of 86 and 68 percent, respectively. Heavy rain halted planting in most areas of the southern Great Plains and adjacent parts of the central Great Plains. Elsewhere, planting progressed with few delays in the southern and eastern Corn Belt, northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest. Fields rapidly emerged in the Corn Belt, where light precipitation provided nearly ideal topsoil moisture for seed germination. Indiana led progress with one-fourth of its acreage emerging during the week. Emergence was slightly slower in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri, advancing 20 percentage points. Meanwhile, soils remained unfavorably dry for germination in many areas of the central and northern Great Plains. In addition, cold weather contributed to slow emergence and limited vegetative growth of emerged fields. In Montana, emergence advanced just 1 percentage point, but remained ahead of normal. Rice: Harvest progressed to 96 percent complete, slightly less than last year's 97-percent and the 5-year average of 98 percent. Harvest remained stalled in Louisiana due to wet weather, but mostly dry conditions supported progress in the interior Mississippi Delta and California. Sorghum: Ninety-three percent was mature, 5 percentage points behind last year and the 5-year average. Nearly 10 percent of the fields reached maturity on the central and southern High Plains, even though cold weather did little to promote ripening. Harvest, at 67 percent complete, lagged well behind last year's 84 percent and the 5-year average of 82 percent, despite favorable conditions in most areas. Harvest progressed with only brief rain interruptions across most of the Great Plains and Corn Belt, led by South Dakota, Colorado, and Nebraska, with 18, 17, and 16 percent harvested, respectively. In Kansas, where rain delays were longer and more widespread, harvest was much slower and progress lagged almost 2 weeks behind normal. In the lower Mississippi Valley, harvest was nearly finished, but wet weather prevented completion. Other Crops: The peanut harvest progressed to 71 percent complete, well behind last year's 81-percent pace and 7 percentage points behind the 78-percent average for this date. Digging advanced with only brief rain delays along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and eastern Gulf Coast. Rain delays were longer and more widespread in the southern Great Plains. Eighty-one percent of the sugarbeet crop was harvested in the four major sugarbeet-producing States. Progress lagged behind last year's 86-percent pace, and the 5-year average of 84 percent. Harvest neared completion in the northern Red River Valley and was virtually complete in North Dakota. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather allowed Idaho and Michigan growers to harvest about one-fourth of their acreage during the week. The sunflower harvest, at 56 percent complete, lagged well behind last year's 72 percent and the 5-year average of 71 percent. Harvest was active on the central and northern Great Plains most of the week, although some areas experienced brief rain delays. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 56 34 72 66 IL : 84 70 73 82 IN : 66 44 49 67 IA : 61 41 50 77 KS : 92 85 94 93 KY : 93 89 94 92 MI : 55 34 37 42 MN : 52 33 60 79 MO : 94 91 84 86 NE : 58 46 64 75 NC : 82 79 98 94 ND : 55 33 69 70 OH : 57 37 31 48 PA : 65 *59 60 46 SD : 45 33 61 62 TN : 99 97 99 99 TX : 98 96 98 98 WI : 36 22 33 51 : 18 Sts: 66 51 62 74 -------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 33 20 40 47 CA : 30 15 19 14 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 98 96 96 95 IL : 94 82 78 87 IN : 89 74 68 84 KS : 95 91 97 94 MI : 98 90 85 92 MO : 74 60 62 68 MT : 98 96 98 96 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 23 18 43 33 OH : 95 88 85 92 OK : 91 88 94 83 OR : 70 45 83 83 SD : 100 97 99 98 TX : 83 78 86 77 WA : 99 97 99 98 : 18 Sts: 89 84 89 86 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 50 40 68 65 IL : 92 84 80 90 IN : 89 78 68 87 IA : 96 88 87 95 KS : 78 70 86 84 KY : 57 43 62 69 LA : 65 61 92 95 MI : 91 73 54 74 MN : 87 76 96 97 MS : 75 70 88 88 MO : 77 66 61 75 NE : 86 78 93 93 NC : 12 10 29 20 ND : 92 81 98 96 OH : 86 74 79 87 SD : 88 77 94 93 TN : 41 36 45 56 WI : 69 53 69 87 : 18 Sts: 84 74 80 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 19 9 21 23 CA : 10 6 5 5 CO : 93 87 93 92 ID : 56 48 61 64 IL : 70 50 60 59 IN : 64 39 50 59 KS : 81 69 88 79 MI : 75 55 60 70 MO : 52 32 39 42 MT : 80 79 72 73 NE : 96 91 97 97 NC : 16 14 23 15 OH : 72 57 67 69 OK : 82 74 74 61 OR : 22 15 50 53 SD : 87 80 87 86 TX : 70 60 65 54 WA : 90 82 90 91 : 18 Sts: 74 65 74 68 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Sorghum: Percent Mature, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 94 86 100 95 IL : 100 99 99 98 KS : 91 86 100 99 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 100 99 99 100 NE : 100 99 100 99 NM : 80 71 92 90 OK : 89 88 93 93 SD : 100 95 100 100 TX : 93 89 96 97 : 11 Sts: 93 89 98 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States planted 97% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 99 98 100 99 CO : 52 35 63 45 IL : 88 80 80 79 KS : 56 48 87 84 LA : 97 96 100 100 MO : 88 82 82 83 NE : 72 56 69 79 NM : 26 19 37 33 OK : 76 75 72 62 SD : 66 48 86 75 TX : 78 76 87 85 : 11 Sts: 67 61 84 82 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 45 36 47 63 AZ : 53 40 53 49 AR : 57 37 76 81 CA : 65 50 61 47 GA : 46 40 48 49 LA : 62 59 87 95 MS : 52 42 74 88 MO : 61 51 73 77 NC : 43 36 43 40 OK : 35 30 39 48 SC : 41 31 46 49 TN : 47 41 78 82 TX : 40 36 47 49 VA : 60 47 89 48 : 14 Sts: 48 40 58 61 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Rice: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 96 93 100 99 CA : 95 90 88 94 LA : 99 99 100 100 MS : 93 90 98 98 MO : 87 79 87 94 TX : 100 100 100 100 : 6 Sts : 96 93 97 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 6 States harvested 100% of last year's rice acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 83 71 84 86 FL : 95 85 94 94 GA : 81 71 92 88 NC : 75 63 88 71 OK : 72 60 70 69 TX : 36 30 53 50 VA : 81 73 99 95 : 7 Sts : 71 62 81 78 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 55 32 72 68 MI : 48 23 47 42 MN : 95 89 99 98 ND : 100 99 100 99 : 4 Sts : 81 70 86 84 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 81% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Oct 27,:Oct 20,:Oct 27,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 48 36 53 34 KS : 61 44 84 82 ND : 44 29 71 71 SD : 74 57 72 76 : 4 Sts : 56 40 72 71 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 89% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Pasture and Range: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX :: State : VP : P : F : G : EX ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent :: : Percent : :: : AL : 2 8 36 43 11 :: NJ : 0 0 46 54 0 AZ : 39 39 20 2 0 :: NM : 24 41 28 6 1 AR : 4 21 39 32 4 :: NY : 1 15 38 39 7 CA : 75 20 5 0 0 :: NC : 9 22 35 30 4 CO : 56 25 16 3 0 :: ND : 34 29 26 10 1 CT : 3 25 50 22 0 :: OH : 18 25 40 16 1 DE : 2 19 34 44 1 :: OK : 4 12 37 40 7 FL : 0 5 25 70 0 :: OR : 37 35 21 7 0 GA : 5 13 40 38 4 :: PA : 18 21 31 28 2 ID : 8 33 47 12 0 :: RI : 3 25 50 22 0 IL : 8 21 41 27 3 :: SC : 4 8 39 47 2 IN : 14 22 40 23 1 :: SD : 31 28 26 14 1 IA : 12 22 38 24 4 :: TN : 4 11 26 47 12 KS : 34 28 25 12 1 :: TX : 9 17 34 32 8 KY : 1 5 24 56 14 :: UT : 28 36 25 11 0 LA : 1 10 50 35 4 :: VT : 3 25 50 22 0 ME : 3 25 50 22 0 :: VA : 9 20 43 26 2 MD : 3 11 24 51 11 :: WA : 13 48 27 12 0 MA : 3 25 50 22 0 :: WV : 3 11 43 41 2 MI : 6 28 39 26 1 :: WI : 1 10 36 49 4 MN : 3 10 38 43 6 :: WY : 52 23 19 6 0 MS : 1 2 24 61 12 :: : MO : 30 31 28 10 1 :: 48 Sts : 20 21 30 25 4 MT : 29 30 26 14 1 :: : NE : 42 36 18 4 0 :: Prev Wk: 21 21 31 24 3 NV : 12 32 35 21 0 :: Prev Yr: 12 21 34 29 4 NH : 3 25 50 22 0 :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. These estimates are preliminary and subject to corrections or updates in the "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" National Summary that is released at 12:00 pm ET on the second business day of the week. These estimates are then subject to revision the following week. The next "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" report will be released after 12 p.m. ET on November 5, 2002. 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