We 1 (11-02) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 13, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Mark E. Miller at (202)720-7621, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 89, No. 46 November 3 - 9, 2002 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: The sudden arrival of the Western wet season aided pastures and winter grains across California and the Northwest. Despite beneficial, high-elevation snowfall across the West, a full season of consistently heavy precipitation will be needed to reduce or eliminate the effects of long-term drought on irrigation reserves and rangelands. Meanwhile, warm, dry weather returned to the Plains, where very cold weather had prevailed for the previous 3 weeks. The Plains' warmth (as much as 6 degrees F above normal) aided autumn fieldwork operations and brought some renewed winter wheat development, but reduced soil moisture for wheat establishment across roughly the northwestern half of the region. Farther east, mild, mostly dry weather favored final summer harvesting across the northern and western Corn Belt. Elsewhere in the Midwest, mild, showery weather promoted winter wheat development, although pockets of dryness persisted in Lower Michigan and northern portions of Indiana and Ohio. Across the South, heavy rain caused additional lowland flooding in the western Gulf Coast region and triggered another setback in cotton and soybean harvesting in the Delta. Widespread precipitation further eased long-term drought in the East, excluding Florida's peninsula, where a gradual drying trend increased citrus irrigation demands. During the early- to midweek period, another significant storm system crossed the South and East. In Texas on November 4, daily-record rainfall amounts reached 5.14 inches in Lufkin and 4.56 inches in College Station. A day later, records included 2.27 inches in Tupelo, MS, 1.83 inches in Huntsville, AL, 1.40 inches in Monroe, LA, 1.35 inches in Greenville-Spartanburg, SC. At midweek, wet snow blanketed northern New England, while rain fell farther south and closer to the Atlantic Coast. In Caribou, ME, November 6-7 snowfall totaled 3.3 inches. Meanwhile, cold weather eased across much of the Nation. More than 100 daily-record lows were set or tied during the first half of the week, mostly in New England and the Northwest. By November 7, however, temperatures reached daily-record levels in locations such as Spokane, WA (58 degrees F), and Whitman Mission, WA (66 degrees F), just 3 days after daily-record lows of 11 degrees F in both locations. A second round of cold air overspread New England, however, where Caribou, ME, registered daily-record lows on November 3 (16 degrees F), 7 (8 degrees F), and 8 (6 degrees F). At week's end, warm weather began to overspread the East, where the November 8 high of 65 degrees F in Martinsburg, WV, represented their first reading at or above 65 degrees F since October 13. Farther south, warmth intensified across the southern Atlantic region, boosting high temperatures to monthly record levels on November 6 in Miami (91 degrees F) and Miami Beach, FL (92 degrees F). Downtown Los Angeles, CA, received more rain (2.31 inches) from November 7-9 than during the year-to-date through November 6 (1.61 inches). Despite the rain, Los Angeles' year-to-date sum through November 10, 3.92 inches, was just 31 percent of normal. Elsewhere in southern California, 48-hour rainfall from November 7-9 included 6.38 inches in Ojai and 6.41 inches on Mt. Wilson. Farther north, mid- to late-week rainfall locally exceeded 10 inches in the Santa Lucia Mountains near San Francisco. In addition to high-elevation snowfall, gusty winds raked much of the West. On November 7, a gust to 58 mph was clocked in Redding, CA; 2 days later, Payson, AZ, recorded a gust to 65 mph. Mostly dry weather and record warmth prevailed across Alaska for much of the week, followed by a return to near-normal temperatures by week's end. Daily-record highs were observed in more than a dozen locations, helping to boost weekly temperatures 6 to 18 degrees F above normal. On November 6, maxima of 51 degrees F in Bethel and 47 degrees F in Nome were the stations' highest November readings in the last half-century. Since 1949, Bethel's previous latest autumn reading at or above 50 degrees F occurred on October 20, 1957. Elsewhere in Alaska, Valdez posted five consecutive daily-record highs from November 5-9, while Kodiak was one of the State's few wet spots, netting 5.06 inches (221 percent of normal) from November 1-10. Meanwhile, cool, mostly dry weather prevailed in Hawaii, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 3 degrees F below normal. National Agricultural Summary November 4 - 10, 2002 Highlights: Above-normal temperatures stimulated germination and growth of winter wheat on the central and northern Great Plains, while mild temperatures and adequate topsoil moisture aided development in the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains. Row-crop harvest continued with few delays in the Corn Belt and most areas of the Great Plains, but a persistent wet weather pattern continued to hamper harvest across much of the southern Great Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Southeast. A strong storm also produced heavy rain that halted field and orchard work along the Pacific Coast. Corn: Harvest advanced to 86 percent complete, 4 percentage points behind this date last year and 6 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Harvest progressed with few delays in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains, advancing 10 percentage points or more in most States. Harvest was most active in Michigan, Minnesota, and the Dakota's, where growers harvested 15 percent of their acreage during the week. Progress was slower across the southern Corn Belt, where harvest was nearly finished. Soybeans: Harvest progressed to 91 percent complete, compared with last year's 95-percent pace and the 5-year average of 96 percent. Light precipitation interrupted harvest across much of the Corn Belt, but delays were brief, and harvest approached completion only slightly later than normal in most areas. Wisconsin producers led the harvest pace with an 11-percent advancement during the week. In Michigan, the harvest season ended ahead of normal. Meanwhile, heavy rain further delayed harvest in the lower Mississippi Valley, where progress ranged from 2 to 4 weeks behind normal. Harvest also lagged far behind normal in North Carolina. Winter wheat: Ninety-two percent of the acreage was planted, and 85 percent was emerged. Planting trailed last year's 96-percent pace and the 5-year average of 93 percent. Emergence lagged slightly behind last year's 86 percent, but exceeded the 83-percent average for this date. Seeding was most active in Arkansas, but progress remained far behind the average for this date. Planting also remained far behind normal along the Atlantic Coastal Plain. In California and Missouri, growers sowed 10 percent of their acreage during the week. Above-normal temperatures stimulated germination and growth in areas of the central and northern Great Plains where topsoil moisture supplies were adequate. Where moisture supplies were short, emergence was spotty and slow, and emerged plants sacrificed vegetative growth for root development. In the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains, temperatures and soil moisture were mostly favorable for crop development. In the Pacific Coast States, heavy precipitation provided immediate crop moisture requirements and boosted long-term moisture reserves along the coast. However, inland areas of the Pacific Northwest received only marginal drought relief. Cotton: Picking advanced to 59 percent complete, but fell more than 2 weeks behind last year and the 5-year average of 79 and 77 percent, respectively. Heavy rain continued to delay picking along the western Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas of the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta. Texas growers picked just 2 percent of their acreage during the week, and progress was only slightly faster in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Oklahoma. Heavy rain also limited harvest in the Southeast, but lengthy delays were less widespread, especially along the Atlantic Coastal Plain. In North Carolina and Virginia, harvest advanced 9 and 10 percentage points, respectively. Picking was most active in California, where harvest neared completion following a 14-percent advancement during the week. Sorghum: Harvest, at 76 percent complete, remained well behind last year and the 5-year average of 95 and 91 percent, respectively. Late crop ripening and muddy fields contributed to slow progress in the southern Great Plains. Harvest was more active in the central and northern Great Plains, advancing 10 percentage points in Colorado, 9 percentage points in Kansas, and 8 percentage points in Nebraska and South Dakota. Other Crops: The peanut harvest progressed to 80 percent complete, well behind last year's 93-percent pace and the 5-year average of 90 percent. Digging remained active along the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, advancing 11 and 9 percentage points in North Carolina and Virginia, respectively. Harvest approached completion slightly later than normal along the eastern Gulf Coast, and progress lagged well behind normal in the southern Great Plains, especially in Texas where digging was far behind normal. The sugarbeet harvest advanced to 98 percent complete in the four major sugarbeet-producing States. Progress equaled last year and the 5-year average. Harvest rapidly approached completion in Idaho, despite rain delays. The sunflower harvest advanced to 78 percent complete, well behind last year and the average of 96 and 91 percent, respectively. Harvest remained active in most areas of the central and northern Great Plains, even though muddy fields limited progress during part of the week. North Dakota led harvest progress with a 17-percent advancement. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 70 65 94 88 IL : 95 91 95 96 IN : 90 78 80 89 IA : 89 76 91 95 KS : 96 95 100 98 KY : 99 96 99 97 MI : 89 74 62 69 MN : 86 71 94 96 MO : 97 95 94 94 NE : 75 64 92 91 NC : 87 83 100 98 ND : 85 70 96 91 OH : 85 75 76 79 PA : 86 74 85 69 SD : 69 54 93 89 TN : 99 99 100 100 TX : 100 99 100 100 WI : 58 49 70 79 : 18 Sts: 86 77 90 92 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 54 43 80 79 CA : 45 35 39 33 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 99 IL : 98 97 97 98 IN : 98 94 97 98 KS : 97 96 100 97 MI : 100 100 98 99 MO : 88 78 89 89 MT : 100 100 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 31 26 67 55 OH : 100 98 96 99 OK : 94 92 96 89 OR : 85 79 100 95 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 88 86 95 88 WA : 100 99 100 100 : 18 Sts: 92 90 96 93 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 65 59 92 87 IL : 97 96 97 98 IN : 96 93 94 98 IA : 99 98 98 99 KS : 83 81 99 95 KY : 70 61 94 89 LA : 69 67 99 99 MI : 100 96 82 92 MN : 97 91 99 99 MS : 81 78 98 96 MO : 87 79 90 92 NE : 92 89 100 98 NC : 17 14 62 41 ND : 99 95 100 100 OH : 95 92 96 97 SD : 95 91 100 99 TN : 55 47 78 81 WI : 89 78 93 98 : 18 Sts: 91 87 95 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 43 32 57 56 CA : 30 15 19 14 CO : 100 98 100 98 ID : 75 65 90 85 IL : 93 85 89 90 IN : 90 77 81 88 KS : 91 87 96 91 MI : 90 84 84 93 MO : 72 62 62 70 MT : 89 83 84 86 NE : 100 98 100 100 NC : 25 20 37 33 OH : 94 87 86 92 OK : 91 85 84 77 OR : 37 27 81 73 SD : 96 93 94 92 TX : 80 77 75 71 WA : 93 91 97 97 : 18 Sts: 85 80 86 83 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 54 49 64 80 AZ : 68 63 66 66 AR : 70 65 94 94 CA : 94 80 89 75 GA : 57 51 71 68 LA : 69 64 97 99 MS : 65 60 95 97 MO : 73 67 97 93 NC : 56 47 75 65 OK : 43 39 59 65 SC : 51 44 68 69 TN : 65 58 91 93 TX : 44 42 69 64 VA : 76 66 79 65 : 14 Sts: 59 53 79 77 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 78 68 89 67 IL : 96 95 98 95 KS : 68 59 99 94 LA : 100 98 100 100 MO : 95 90 95 94 NE : 83 75 96 94 NM : 38 31 67 59 OK : 80 77 85 80 SD : 87 79 97 92 TX : 81 79 92 91 : 11 Sts: 76 70 95 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 87 84 90 95 FL : 97 96 99 99 GA : 92 86 100 98 NC : 88 77 98 89 OK : 79 76 92 89 TX : 44 41 80 71 VA : 98 89 100 99 : 7 Sts : 80 75 93 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sugarbeets: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : ID : 93 78 98 95 MI : 96 91 91 95 MN : 99 99 99 99 ND : 100 100 100 100 : 4 Sts : 98 94 98 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 81% of last year's sugarbeets acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 10,:Nov 3, :Nov 10,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 71 61 89 71 KS : 77 63 99 94 ND : 75 58 97 91 SD : 85 80 96 94 : 4 Sts : 78 66 96 91 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 89% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 5 34 54 7 CA : 0 30 30 30 10 CO : 2 7 51 34 6 ID : 0 7 30 61 2 IL : 0 1 26 66 7 IN : 0 3 32 56 9 KS : 2 5 30 54 9 MI : 2 5 29 53 11 MO : 0 2 37 57 4 MT : 1 5 30 59 5 NE : 11 6 38 40 5 NC : 4 5 21 63 7 OH : 0 2 21 57 20 OK : 0 2 24 53 21 OR : 30 15 40 15 0 SD : 4 8 36 45 7 TX : 1 2 19 52 26 WA : 3 16 55 24 2 : 18 Sts : 2 5 31 50 12 : Prev Wk : 2 6 34 48 10 Prev Yr : 7 15 34 38 6 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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