We 1 (11-02) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 19, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Mark E. Miller at (202)720-7621, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 89, No. 47 November 10 - 16, 2002 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. HIGHLIGHTS: Mostly dry weather returned to the West, following last week's highly beneficial precipitation. Scattered showers lingered in the Northwest, where winter grains benefited from soil moisture improvements but needed additional precipitation to ensure proper crop establishment. On the Plains, scattered rain and snow showers caused only minor fieldwork disruptions, permitting final winter wheat planting and sorghum, cotton, and peanut harvesting to accelerate across southern portions of the region. Meanwhile on the northern and central High Plains, cool weather and soil moisture shortages continued to limit winter wheat development. Autumn fieldwork also proceeded with few delays in the Midwest, allowing corn and soybean harvesting to approach completion. Toward week's end, rain and snow further boosted soil moisture reserves in winter wheat areas of the Ohio Valley, but unfavorably dry conditions persisted in a narrow band from the lower Missouri Valley to Lower Michigan. On Saturday, a developing storm system in the Southeast took aim at the Atlantic Seaboard. Farther south and east, a severe weather outbreak on November 10 triggered dozens of tornadoes and caused local destruction from the central Gulf Coast to the lower Great Lakes region. Parts of Tennessee, Alabama, and Ohio were especially hard hit. Enough rain fell across the Delta early in the week and again toward week's end to cause additional cotton and soybean harvest delays. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather allowed lowland flooding to subside in the western Gulf Coast region. Farther east, two episodes of heavy rain brought additional drought relief but hampered fieldwork from Georgia northward, while scattered showers and thunderstorms eased citrus irrigation requirements across southern Florida. The most significant severe weather outbreak of the year struck areas from the central Gulf Coast to the lower Great Lakes region on November 10, nearly doubling (from 13 to 24) the year-to-date number of killer tornadoes and increasing the number of 2002 tornado-related fatalities from 17 to 52. According to preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center, the majority of the destruction was noted in parts of Tennessee (17 deaths), Alabama (11 deaths), and Ohio (5 deaths). The last time more people perished during a single tornado outbreak was May 3, 1999, when there were 46 fatalities in Oklahoma and Kansas. One of the worst storms during the November 10 outbreak, the Saragossa Tornado, cut a 60-mile swath across four Alabama counties from Fayette to Cullman in a 1-hour, 20-minute span, peaking as an F3 (winds estimated from 158 to 206 mph) near Saragossa, with a maximum width of five-eighths of a mile. Locally heavy showers accompanied the severe weather, resulting in daily-record rainfall totals on November 10 in locations such as Lexington, KY (2.49 inches), and Evansville, IN (1.82 inches). Farther east, early-week warmth produced more than 50 daily-record highs in the East on November 10-11. In Maine, Caribou and Houlton posted daily-record highs of 66oF on Monday, just 3 days after both locations noted daily-record lows of 6oF. Farther south, record highs on November 10 included 86oF in Alexandria, LA, and 82oF in Bowling Green, KY. Warmth lingered through Tuesday in Florida, where Miami registered consecutive daily-record highs (89oF on November 11 and 12). Meanwhile, rain and snow showers lingered early in the week across the West, followed by a return to dry, warmer weather. Some precipitation persisted, however, in the Pacific Northwest. In southern California, Simi Valley netted a daily-record total (0.45 inch) on November 10. Four days later, daily-record warmth overspread parts of the Northwest in advance of an eastern Pacific storm system. Record highs in Washington included 57oF in Wenatchee and 55oF in Omak. In northwestern Oregon, Astoria received measurable rainfall every day during the week, excluding November 14, totaling 1.88 inches. In addition, Astoria's wind gusts peaked at 47 mph on November 12 and 56 mph on November 16. As the week ended, a strengthening storm system in the Southeast began moving northeastward up the Atlantic Coast, eventually becoming the season's first Nor'easter a day later. To the north, Arctic air filtered southward across the Great Lakes region and New England, generating a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in western, central, and northern New England, rain in the middle and southern Atlantic Coast States, and gusty winds and coastal flooding along the coast. Albany, NY, measured a November 16 record 3.4 inches of mostly snow and sleet, while a significant accumulation of ice was commencing in east-central New York, northern Connecticut, and western and central Massachusetts. In southern locales, November 16 record rains were measured at Asheville, NC (0.86 inch), Columbia, SC (0.72 inch), Augusta, GA (0.89 inch), and Ft. Myers, FL (4.68 inches). In contrast, Santa Ana (easterly) winds in southern California brought near-record to record warmth to many locations as highs reached into the 80'soF (83oF at Oceanside and 87oF at El Cajon). In Hawaii, scattered trade wind showers dropped light to moderate rain on orographically favored locations, with locally heavy totals on northern and eastern sections of Kauai and Oahu. The highest amounts on Kauai (96-hour totals starting at 8 a.m. HST, November 13) included 7.19 inches at Kokee, 6.00 inches at Wainiha, and 3.75 inches at Wailua. On Oahu, greatest 96-hour amounts (starting 8 a.m. HST, November 12) included 3.13 inches at Palisades, 2.98 inches at Manoa Lyon Arboretum, and 2.72 inches at Wilson Tunnel. Weekly rainfall was generally under an inch at windward locations of the Big Island and Maui, and little or no precipitation was recorded at leeward locations. Mild and mostly dry weather remained across most of Alaska, except for extreme western areas where weekly temperatures averaged 3 to 5oF below normal. In contrast, south-central Alaska stations reported departures up to +13oF (at Northway). Surplus weekly precipitation totals were limited to the southeastern Panhandle (7.01 inches at Ketchikan and 4.57 inches at Annette Island) and on parts of the Aleutian Islands (2.11 inches at Cold Bay and 1.28 inches at Dutch Harbor). National Agricultural Summary November 11 - 17, 2002 Highlights: Fall row crop harvest and winter grain seeding continued with few interruptions in the Corn Belt and Great Plains. Harvest accelerated in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, as a favorably dry weather pattern replaced several weeks of mostly wet weather. In the Southeast, persistent rain continued to hamper harvest progress in most areas. Meanwhile, abnormally warm weather boosted winter wheat development in the central and northern Great Plains, and favorably warm weather supported growth in the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Corn Belt. Winter wheat fields also benefited from light precipitation in many areas, although subsoil moisture reserves remained low in the Pacific Northwest and across much of the Great Plains. Corn: Harvest advanced to 93 percent complete, 3 percentage points behind this date last year and the 5-year average. Mostly dry weather aided harvest across most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. However, parts of the eastern Corn Belt experienced rain delays after midweek. Harvest was most active in the upper Mississippi Valley, where Wisconsin producers harvested one-fifth of their crop during the week. Harvest was also active in the western Corn Belt, advancing 13 and 15 percentage points in Nebraska and South Dakota, respectively. Harvest advanced 7 percentage points in Iowa and Minnesota, but neared completion slightly later than normal. Soybeans: Harvest progressed to 94 percent complete, compared with last year's 98-percent and the 5-year average of 97 percent. Harvest approached completion across most of the Corn Belt with few delays during the week. However, rain limited progress in scattered parts of the eastern Corn Belt. Most harvest activity was concentrated along the lower Ohio River Valley and adjacent parts of the Mississippi Delta. Tennessee producers led the weekly harvest pace, reaping 17 percent of their crop. Growers in Arkansas and Kentucky harvested 14 and 12 percent of their acreage, respectively. Harvest accelerated in Louisiana, but remained far behind normal. In the Corn Belt, harvest was mostly concentrated along the western boundary, especially Kansas, where harvest advanced 10 percentage points. Winter wheat: Ninety-four percent of the acreage was planted, and 89 percent was emerged. Planting trailed last year's 98-percent and the 5-year average of 95 percent. Emergence lagged slightly behind last year's 90 percent, but exceeded the 87-percent average for this date. Favorably dry weather supported a rapid acceleration of the planting pace in the interior Mississippi Delta, where Arkansas producers seeded 16 percent of their acreage. In contrast, sowing was far behind normal on the Atlantic Coastal Plain, as wet weather further delayed progress. Above-normal temperatures stimulated emergence and growth on the central and northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest, while near-normal temperatures supported development in the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Corn Belt. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 67 percent complete, but remained more than 2 weeks behind last year and the 5-year average of 86 and 83 percent, respectively. Picking accelerated in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, where dry weather dominated for the first time in several weeks. Producers in Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee picked 12 to 14 percent of their acreage. Harvest also gained momentum in Texas and Louisiana. In the Southeast, widespread, persistent rain virtually halted picking after midweek. Picking advanced 5 percentage points or less along the Atlantic Coastal Plain. In the Southwest, picking resumed in California and neared completion well ahead of normal. Sorghum: Harvest, at 84 percent complete, remained well behind last year's 97-percent and the 5-year average of 94 percent. Mostly dry weather supported an active harvest pace on the central and southern Great Plains. Harvest advanced 12 percentage points in Kansas, 11 percentage points in Nebraska, and 10 percentage points in Colorado and New Mexico. Harvest neared completion in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. Other Crops: The peanut harvest progressed to 87 percent complete, well behind last year and the 5-year average of 97 and 93 percent, respectively. Harvest rapidly accelerated in the southern Great Plains due to favorably dry weather, advancing 16 percentage points in Texas and 12 percentage points in Oklahoma. In contrast, heavy rain sharply curtailed digging along the eastern Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coastal Plain. The sunflower harvest advanced to 86 percent complete, compared with the average of 94 percent. Last year, harvest was virtually complete by this date. Mostly dry weather aided harvest in the four major sunflower-producing States. Harvest was most active in Kansas, advancing 12 percentage points. North Dakota producer's harvested nearly one-tenth of their acreage. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 78 70 99 95 IL : 98 95 98 98 IN : 96 90 93 96 IA : 96 89 97 98 KS : 97 96 100 99 KY : 100 99 100 99 MI : 93 89 82 81 MN : 93 86 98 98 MO : 100 97 98 97 NE : 88 75 97 95 NC : 92 87 100 100 ND : 91 85 100 94 OH : 91 85 90 88 PA : 89 86 90 79 SD : 84 69 98 94 TN : 100 99 100 100 TX : 100 100 100 100 WI : 78 58 86 88 : 18 Sts: 93 86 96 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 70 54 89 87 CA : 50 45 44 45 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 100 IL : 99 98 99 99 IN : 99 98 100 100 KS : 98 97 100 98 MI : 100 100 100 100 MO : 91 88 93 94 MT : 100 100 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 32 31 77 67 OH : 100 100 99 100 OK : 97 94 99 93 OR : 90 85 100 97 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 90 88 97 91 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 94 92 98 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 79 65 97 92 IL : 99 97 99 99 IN : 98 96 99 99 IA : 100 99 100 100 KS : 93 83 100 96 KY : 82 70 99 93 LA : 76 69 100 100 MI : 100 100 94 96 MN : 99 97 99 99 MS : 85 81 99 97 MO : 91 87 95 95 NE : 98 92 100 99 NC : 18 17 78 52 ND : 100 99 100 100 OH : 96 95 100 100 SD : 98 95 100 100 TN : 72 55 91 87 WI : 96 89 97 99 : 18 Sts: 94 91 98 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 57 43 72 71 CA : 32 30 32 22 CO : 100 100 100 99 ID : 83 75 95 91 IL : 96 93 94 96 IN : 96 90 92 94 KS : 94 91 98 94 MI : 97 90 89 97 MO : 80 72 80 81 MT : 92 89 89 89 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 29 25 48 44 OH : 97 94 93 97 OK : 93 91 89 82 OR : 55 37 93 84 SD : 100 96 97 93 TX : 84 80 78 76 WA : 95 93 99 98 : 18 Sts: 89 85 90 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 63 54 78 86 AZ : 77 68 74 75 AR : 83 70 98 97 CA : 98 94 92 82 GA : 62 57 82 76 LA : 77 69 99 99 MS : 79 65 99 99 MO : 82 73 99 96 NC : 57 56 85 75 OK : 55 43 68 74 SC : 55 51 79 79 TN : 79 65 95 96 TX : 52 44 76 71 VA : 79 76 88 77 : 14 Sts: 67 59 86 83 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 94 87 94 97 FL : 97 97 99 99 GA : 95 92 100 99 NC : 93 88 99 95 OK : 91 79 96 93 TX : 60 44 90 78 VA : 98 98 100 100 : 7 Sts : 87 80 97 93 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 88 78 90 72 IL : 98 96 99 98 KS : 80 68 100 96 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 97 95 99 97 NE : 94 83 99 98 NM : 48 38 79 72 OK : 85 80 90 86 SD : 95 87 100 96 TX : 85 81 94 93 : 11 Sts: 84 76 97 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 17,:Nov 10,:Nov 17,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 76 71 99 79 KS : 89 77 99 96 ND : 84 75 100 93 SD : 91 85 100 97 : 4 Sts : 86 78 100 94 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 89% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 5 41 45 9 CA : 0 10 30 50 10 CO : 2 7 51 34 6 ID : 0 6 31 61 2 IL : 0 1 25 69 5 IN : 0 2 32 56 10 KS : 1 6 30 55 8 MI : 0 3 31 52 14 MO : 0 4 41 51 4 MT : 3 7 31 57 2 NE : 9 7 29 52 3 NC : 4 14 28 51 3 OH : 0 2 22 56 20 OK : 0 2 25 52 21 OR : 30 15 40 15 0 SD : 6 7 34 45 8 TX : 1 2 21 51 25 WA : 4 15 49 30 2 : 18 Sts : 2 5 31 50 12 : Prev Wk : 2 5 31 50 12 Prev Yr : 6 15 36 37 6 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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