We 1 (11-02) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 26, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin" call Mark E. Miller at (202)720-7621, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. National Weather Summary Volume 89, No. 48 November 17 - 23, 2002 For additional information, call (202) 720-2397. Highlights: Mild weather returned to the western half of the Nation, promoting some late-season winter wheat emergence and development across the Plains and Northwest. Although weekly temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees F above normal across the northern and central High Plains and the Northwest, low soil temperatures (from previously cold weather) and limited moisture reserves continued to limit wheat establishment. Farther south, warmer, drier conditions favored cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvesting on the southern Plains. Meanwhile in southern California, record warmth and gusty winds contributed to an increase in wildfire activity. Warm, dry weather also overspread the remainder of California and the Southwest, following early-November storminess. Despite beneficial Western rain and snow from November 7-9, consistent storminess will be needed through next spring to boost drought-reduced irrigation reserves and ease stress on rangelands. Across the South, late-week showers interrupted an otherwise cool, dry weather pattern. The mostly dry weather favored a gradual acceleration of cotton and soybean harvesting in the Delta and allowed some fieldwork to resume in the Southeast. Farther north, storms affected the Northeast early in the week and toward week's end, providing the region with rain, snow, and gusty winds. Following the second storm system, freezes were noted on November 23 as far south as northern Florida, where weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10 degrees F below normal. In the Midwest, corn and soybean harvests approached completion under a cool, mostly dry weather pattern. However, the cool weather continued to slow winter wheat development in areas from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Early in the week, heavy snow lingered across the Northeast, where November 17-18 snowfall totaled 12.9 inches in Houlton, ME, and 11.1 inches in Burlington, VT. Farther south, New York's Central Park noted a daily-record rainfall (1.39 inches) on November 17. Locally heavy showers also lingered in southern Florida, where 2-day (November 16-17) totals reached 5.17 inches in Ft. Myers and 3.51 inches in Sarasota-Bradenton. Cool weather trailed the rain into Florida, resulting in daily-record lows on November 18 in locations such as Melbourne (39 degrees F) and West Palm Beach (45 degrees F). Meanwhile in Washington, only light precipitation fell in winter wheat areas, but heavy rain produced daily records on November 18 in locations such as Quillayute (4.38 inches) and Hoquiam (2.10 inches). Wet, windy conditions returned to the East late in the week. On November 23, Burlington received 4.7 inches of snow, while wind gusts were clocked to 51 mph in Millinocket, ME, and 60 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. Cold weather returned to the East at week's end, resulting in consecutive freezes at Gainesville, FL (32 and 30 degrees F) on November 23-24. More than 100 daily-record highs were set or tied across the West, although record warmth briefly spread onto High Plains toward week's end. Temperatures were especially impressive across southern California, where downslope winds elevated temperatures above 90 degrees F in locations such as Santa Ana (95 degrees F on November 20) and Riverside (97 degrees F on November 21). It was only the second time on record that Santa Ana attained 95 degrees F after November 9; the other observance was December 3, 1958. Elsewhere in California, Fresno recorded 81 degrees F on November 21, tying the date (first set in 1926) of their latest reading at or above 80 degrees F. Meanwhile in Montana, Livingston's temperatures exceeded 70 degrees F on 3 consecutive days from November 20-22 (72, 73, and 72 degrees F). Farther south, daily records on November 22 included 80 degrees F in Pueblo, CO, and 76 degrees F in McCook, NE. Mostly dry weather returned to Hawaii, following the previous week's heavy showers across parts of Kauai and Oahu. Early in the week, 24-hour (November 18-19) rainfall topped one-quarter of an inch in scattered locations, including Anahola, Kauai (0.38 inch), and Waiakea Uka, on the Big Island (0.32 inch). Meanwhile, most of Alaska reported warmer-than-normal weather for the ninth consecutive week, boosting weekly temperatures as much as 14 degrees F above normal. In southeastern Alaska, Sitka (56 degrees F) posted a daily-record high on November 23. Significant precipitation was confined to southern Alaska, where Kodiak's November 1-24 rainfall reached 11.77 inches (normal for the entire month is 6.63 inches). However, the lack of cool air left another southern Alaska location, Valdez, with just 7.3 inches of snow from September 1 - November 24, far below last year's total of 49.4 inches during the same period. On the Alaskan mainland, November 1-24 precipitation totals were as low as 0.26 inch (25 percent of normal) in McGrath and 0.02 inch (4 percent) in Fairbanks. National Agricultural Summary November 18 - 24, 2002 Highlights: Warm, dry weather supported late-season harvest progress across most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. Favorably drier weather also aided harvest in the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Elsewhere, above-normal temperatures stimulated winter wheat growth in the Great Plains, although topsoil moisture shortages limited the crop's response in some areas. In the Pacific Northwest, light precipitation provided much-needed moisture for germinating recently planted winter wheat fields, but moisture reserves remained very low. Corn: Harvest advanced to 97 percent complete, compared with 99 percent on this date last year and the 5-year average of 98 percent. Harvest remained active across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Plains, but was virtually complete across most of the central and southern Corn Belt. South Dakota and Wisconsin producers led the weekly progress, harvesting 11 and 10 percent of their acreage, respectively. Harvest was only slightly slower in Nebraska. Meanwhile, high grain moisture limited progress in Colorado. Soybeans: Harvest, at 97 percent complete, neared completion slightly behind last year's pace and the 5-year average of 99 and 98 percent, respectively. Harvest remained active in the lower Ohio River Valley and adjacent areas of the interior Mississippi Delta, advancing 10 percentage points or more in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Harvest steadily advanced in Mississippi and Louisiana, but remained behind normal, especially in Louisiana. Meanwhile, harvest was virtually complete across the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains, but lagged far behind normal along the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Winter wheat: Ninety-six percent of the acreage was planted, and 91 percent was emerged. Planting trailed last year's 98-percent and the 5-year average of 97 percent. Emergence lagged slightly behind last year's 93-percent, but exceeded the 90-percent average for this date. Seeding continued without delay in California, advancing 20 percentage points. Planting was also active in the lower Mississippi Valley and Atlantic Coastal Plain, where Arkansas and North Carolina producers sowed 15 and 10 percent, respectively. Despite good progress, seeding was behind normal in both States. Meanwhile, light precipitation promoted germination of recently planted fields in Oregon, and topsoil moisture was adequate to support germination in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the Great Plains, abnormally warm weather stimulated growth where moisture supplies were adequate. The mild weather was especially beneficial on the northern High Plains. In the eastern Corn Belt, below normal temperatures slightly hampered vegetative growth, but topsoil moisture supplies were nearly ideal. Cotton: Harvest advanced to 77 percent complete, but remained well behind last year and the 5-year average of 90 and 87 percent, respectively. Picking accelerated in the southern Great Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Southeast, as significantly drier weather prevailed in most areas. Mississippi growers led the harvest pace, picking 15 percent of their crop. Picking was only slightly slower in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas, where harvest advanced 13 percentage points. Producers in Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina picked 11 percent of their cotton. Meanwhile, lingering wetness and additional, mostly light, precipitation limited progress in Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia. Sorghum: Harvest progress reached 90 percent, well behind last year's 99-percent and about a week behind the 96-percent average for this date. Harvest was most active in the central and southern Great Plains, especially in New Mexico, where producers harvested nearly one-fifth of their crop, and in Kansas, where growers reaped nearly one-tenth of their acreage. Despite the rapid pace, harvest remained well behind normal in both States. Harvest also lagged well behind normal on the Texas High Plains. Elsewhere, harvest was complete in the lower Mississippi Valley and virtually complete in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. Other Crops: The peanut harvest progressed to 95 percent complete, 3 percentage points behind this date last year and 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Harvest rapidly accelerated in Texas, as warm, dry weather provided favorable digging conditions for the first time in several weeks. Favorably dry weather also supported progress in the Southeast, where harvest neared completion in most areas. The sunflower harvest advanced to 94 percent complete, compared with the average of 95 percent. Last year, harvest was finished by this date. Harvest remained active in the four major sunflower-producing States, especially in Colorado, where harvest advanced 10 percentage points. Harvest was nearly complete in Kansas and South Dakota. Corn: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 82 78 100 99 IL : 99 98 99 99 IN : 98 96 98 98 IA : 99 96 99 99 KS : 99 97 100 99 KY : 100 100 100 100 MI : 96 93 90 89 MN : 97 93 99 99 MO : 100 100 100 99 NE : 95 88 100 98 NC : 94 92 100 100 ND : 96 91 100 96 OH : 96 91 98 94 PA : 92 89 95 87 SD : 95 84 100 97 TN : 100 100 100 100 TX : 100 100 100 100 WI : 88 78 97 95 : 18 Sts: 97 93 99 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 95% of last year's corn acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Planted, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 85 70 93 93 CA : 70 50 54 58 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 100 100 100 100 IL : 100 99 99 100 IN : 100 99 100 100 KS : 99 98 100 99 MI : 100 100 100 100 MO : 96 91 97 97 MT : 100 100 100 100 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 42 32 81 76 OH : 100 100 100 100 OK : 99 97 100 96 OR : 95 90 100 99 SD : 100 100 100 100 TX : 93 90 98 93 WA : 100 100 100 100 : 18 Sts: 96 94 98 97 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Soybeans: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 91 79 99 96 IL : 99 99 99 99 IN : 99 98 100 100 IA : 100 100 100 100 KS : 97 93 100 98 KY : 92 82 100 95 LA : 83 76 100 100 MI : 100 100 99 99 MN : 99 99 99 99 MS : 92 85 100 99 MO : 96 91 98 98 NE : 99 98 100 99 NC : 22 18 86 66 ND : 100 100 100 100 OH : 99 96 100 100 SD : 100 98 100 100 TN : 83 72 96 93 WI : 99 96 100 100 : 18 Sts: 97 94 99 98 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States harvested 96% of last year's soybean acreage. Winter Wheat: Percent Emerged, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 68 57 77 80 CA : 42 32 39 28 CO : 100 100 100 100 ID : 88 83 99 94 IL : 98 96 98 98 IN : 98 96 96 97 KS : 96 94 99 95 MI : 100 97 93 98 MO : 87 80 88 89 MT : 95 92 92 91 NE : 100 100 100 100 NC : 32 29 56 57 OH : 99 97 97 98 OK : 94 93 93 87 OR : 70 55 99 92 SD : 100 100 100 94 TX : 87 84 82 81 WA : 96 95 100 99 : 18 Sts: 91 89 93 90 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 18 States planted 90% of last year's winter wheat acreage. Cotton: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 70 63 84 91 AZ : 83 77 82 83 AR : 94 83 100 99 CA : 99 98 95 88 GA : 68 62 89 82 LA : 88 77 100 100 MS : 94 79 100 99 MO : 95 82 100 98 NC : 66 57 91 84 OK : 68 55 73 80 SC : 66 55 88 87 TN : 84 79 99 98 TX : 65 52 80 77 VA : 80 79 94 85 : 14 Sts: 77 67 90 87 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 14 States harvested 98% of last year's cotton acreage. Peanuts: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AL : 99 94 98 99 FL : 98 97 100 100 GA : 100 95 100 100 NC : 95 93 100 98 OK : 97 91 99 96 TX : 79 60 94 83 VA : 100 98 100 100 : 7 Sts : 95 87 98 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 7 States harvested 98% of last year's peanut acreage. Sorghum: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 100 100 100 100 CO : 93 88 99 81 IL : 99 98 99 99 KS : 89 80 100 98 LA : 100 100 100 100 MO : 99 97 100 99 NE : 99 94 100 99 NM : 66 48 89 83 OK : 88 85 95 90 SD : 99 95 100 97 TX : 88 85 97 96 : 11 Sts: 90 84 99 96 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 11 States harvested 98% of last year's sorghum acreage. Sunflowers: Percent Harvested, Selected States 1/ -------------------------------------- : Week Ending : :-----------------------: 1997- State:Nov 24,:Nov 17,:Nov 24,: 2001 : 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg. -------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 86 76 100 80 KS : 96 89 100 98 ND : 93 84 100 95 SD : 97 91 100 98 : 4 Sts : 94 86 100 95 -------------------------------------- 1/ These 4 States harvested 89% of last year's sunflowers acreage. Winter Wheat: Crop Condition by Percent, Selected States -------------------------------------- State : VP : P : F : G : EX -------------------------------------- : Percent : AR : 0 3 42 47 8 CA : 0 0 20 55 25 CO : 2 6 47 39 6 ID : 0 6 31 61 2 IL : 0 1 25 69 5 IN : 0 2 32 56 10 KS : 1 7 30 55 7 MI : 0 3 31 52 14 MO : 0 4 42 50 4 MT : 2 7 22 65 4 NE : 11 11 34 42 2 NC : 2 10 34 50 4 OH : 1 3 22 55 19 OK : 1 4 26 51 18 OR : 30 15 40 15 0 SD : 5 6 39 42 8 TX : 1 3 22 50 24 WA : 3 17 58 20 2 : 18 Sts : 2 6 31 50 11 : Prev Wk : 2 5 31 50 12 Prev Yr : 5 15 36 38 6 -------------------------------------- VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent. National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2001 planted acres. Crop Progress and Condition Survey and Estimating Procedures Survey Procedures: Crop progress and condition estimates are based on survey data that are collected each week from early April to the end of November. The Crop progress and condition surveys are non-probability surveys that include a sample of more than 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these reporters subjectively estimate progress of farmers' activities and progress of crops through their stages of development. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions. Most reporters complete their questionnaire on Friday or early Monday morning and submit it to the Agricultural Statistics Service's office in their State by mail, telephone, fax, e-mail, or through a secured internet website. A small number of reports are completed on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Regardless of the time that the questionnaire is completed, reporters are asked to report for the week ending on Sunday. For reports submitted prior to the Sunday reference date, a degree of uncertainty is introduced into the projections for weekend progress and crop condition changes. By the end of the 2001 season, nearly two-thirds of the data were being submitted through the internet website. As a result, about one-half of all data are submitted on Monday morning, which has significantly reduced this projection uncertainty. Reporters are sent written reporting instructions at the beginning of each season and are contacted periodically to ensure proper reporting. Terms and definitions of crop stages and condition categories that are used as reporting guidelines are available on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) website at: www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/cwterms.htm. Estimating Procedures: Reported data are reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by comparing with data reported the previous week and data reported in surrounding counties for the current week. Each State Statistical Office summarizes the reported data to district and State levels, weighting each county's reported data by NASS county acreage estimates. Summarized indications are compared with previous week estimates, and progress items are compared with earlier stages of development and historical averages to ensure reasonableness. Weather events and reporter comments are also taken into consideration. State estimates are submitted to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) along with supporting comments, where they are compared with surrounding States and compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. Revision Policy: Progress and condition estimates in the "Crop Progress" report are released at 4:00 pm ET on the first business day of the week. 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